"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (78 Viewers)

[GrauGeist]

I call piles of BS. Denial to the enemy is not liberation. There's no way to get Ukrainian boots onto Crimea until all of Kherson Oblast is liberated. And as it stands, across all fronts Ukraine has liberated perhaps five to six hundred Km2 in 2026; so all of Kherson is a hard ask.

View attachment 878832

As we know, Ukraine has been excellent at holding their cards close to their vest, so any plans to take back Crimea are going to be sensational speculation.

However, if one follows the pattern of strategic Ukrainian strikes, you'll start to see a pattern: Ukrainian strikes on Crimea have been continuous, hitting supply infrastructure, command and control centers and more importantly, air defense systems.
The rate of these strikes has increased recently above the strikes across the rest of the front.

The one thing that comes to mind for me, is that if Ukraine does invade Crimea, Russian forces in Khearson will be caught between the hammer and the anvil.

 

[Marcel]

I don't believe the Ukraine has the resources to do such an attack.
YouTube is a bad source of information. Any idiot can make a YouTube clip.

 

[MiTasol]

As we know, Ukraine has been excellent at holding their cards close to their vest, so any plans to take back Crimea are going to be sensational speculation.

However, if one follows the pattern of strategic Ukrainian strikes, you'll start to see a pattern: Ukrainian strikes on Crimea have been continuous, hitting supply infrastructure, command and control centers and more importantly, air defense systems.
The rate of these strikes has increased recently above the strikes across the rest of the front.

The one thing that comes to mind for me, is that if Ukraine does invade Crimea, Russian forces in Khearson will be caught between the hammer and the anvil.

True, but would be equally true that Crimea would be caught between Kherson and Krasnodar so that is equally a problem..

Yes they can cut off Russian road and rail access to Crimea but then they have to attack Kherson with limited access and Russia can attack from the sea from the north and south. Ukraine would need absolute air and sea superiority and while they effectively have the air and the sea to the south sea to the north is probably a significant problem.

 

[Admiral Beez]

YouTube is a bad source of information. Any idiot can make a YouTube clip.

Which is why I've put on "ignore" our most prolific poster of YouTube vids. No offence or request for change, but I just needed to clear my feed on this topic of all the YouTube opinion pieces, one-sided clickbait, "expert" taking heads, repurposed/Ai footage, and wishful thinking. This still gives me the option to click "unignore" for when I want to peruse the latest steaming pile of YouTube content.

 

[Denniss]

A big boom was reported in the port of Berdyansk - Magyar claims to have hit a cargo ship with ammunition. Also hit a Be-200 aircraft (destroyed), a Ka-27 helo and several air defense systems.

 

[GrauGeist]

Ukraine would need absolute air and sea superiority and while they effectively have the air and the sea to the south sea to the north is probably a significant problem.

The Ukrainian Navy's Sea Babies have been effective in chasing the Russian Navy's shipping to the east, though.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

That has to be among the least efficient use of drones. Eight hundred drones lost to kill six civilians? Any is awful, but I bet more Ukrainians died that day in automobile accidents or slip and falls.

Actually your bet has a point.

2025 was the worst year since 2022 for Ukranian civilians. The total civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 reached at least 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured.

2025 deadliest year for civilians in Ukraine since 2022, UN human rights monitors find | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine

Kyiv, 12 January 2025 – The year 2025 was the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) said today in its monthly update on civilian harm. | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine

ukraine.ohchr.org

In 2025, 25,934 road accidents with casualties were registered in Ukraine, in which 3,249 people died and 31,898 were injured.

Over 25,000 road accidents with casualties and over 3,000 fatalities: the patrol police released accident statistics for 2025

УНН Society ✎ In 2025, 25,934 road accidents with casualties were registered in Ukraine, in which 3,249 people died and 31,898 were injured. The main causes are spe…

unn.ua

P.S.: I couldn't find statistics on deaths by "slips and falls", but there is a rumor that falling from a window is quite common in Russia

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Ukrainian Navy's Sea Babies have been effective in chasing the Russian Navy's shipping to the east, though.

I have a reoccurring dream where the Ukrainian navy secures the sea to the west of Crimea and then a half dozen modified grain carriers depart Odessa on a seemingly normal transit towards the Bosphorus Strait, before they divert and race onto the beach north of Yevpatoriya, where a hundred or more AFVs and thousands of troops offload. Unlike most LSTs, these are likely one-way trips onto the beach.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC-fITnLZ7A

Once the beach is secure, a Mulberry Harbour is set up to keep the men provisioned with food, arms and ammo. Meanwhile a swarm of Ukrainian drones keeps the defenders on the back foot.

By spring 2027, the Third Siege of Sevastopol (1854-55, 1941-42) is well underway. The place seems destined to be besieged every 86 years or so.

 

[GTX]

Zelenskyy vows retribution against Russia for missile strike that killed 24

Russia has unleashed its heaviest bombardment of the Ukrainian capital this year after a US-brokered ceasefire ended.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

Ukrainian Drones Are Modernizing Siege Warfare

 

[GTX]

U.S. keeps Ukraine’s VAMPIRE counter-drone fleet combat-ready

The U.S. Navy is moving to extend technical support for the VAMPIRE counter-drone system deployed with Ukrainian naval forces, according to a presolicitation notice published May 14 by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division. The contract modification targets Sierra

defence-blog.com

 

[GTX]

Ukraine responds to mass Russian strike with large overnight attack

Ukraine launched a large-scale retaliatory strike campaign overnight into May 15, targeting oil refining infrastructure, military-industrial facilities, and Russian military bases across multiple regions of Russia and occupied territory, following one of the most intense Russian aerial...

defence-blog.com

 

[GTX]

Ukraine primed for €9B payout from EU loan next month

The cash will go toward buying drones worth €5.9 billion to buttress the country’s defenses and provide €3.2 billion to cover Kyiv’s budgetary costs.

www.politico.eu

 

[GTX]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7zvclpdtHo

 

[GTX]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6QmSHkRLJA

 

[GTX]

View: https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/2049179972820984170

 

[GTX]

View: https://x.com/DenShtilierman/status/2054847010650439809?s=20

 

[GTX]

Inside Ukraine's Interceptor Drone Innovations Swatting Down Thousands Of Russian Shaheds

Brave1 CEO Andrii Hrytseniuk gives us exclusive insights into Ukraine's ability to counter Russia's one-way attack drone armada on the cheap.

www.twz.com

 

[GTX]

View: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2055221320648945689?s=20

 

[GTX]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F8SUYchLTA