"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (141 Viewers)
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buffnut453
Captain
You must be either a seer, a prophet or both...a report on LinkedIn has footage claiming that Ukrainian forces have landed on Kinburn Spit
Here's the linky for those who can access LinkedIn:
ðºð¦ Ukraineâs Southern Defense Forces have raised the Ukrainian flag on the Kinburn Spit. Is Ukraine's land invasion of Crimea beginning? According to the Operational Tactical Group âOdesa,â⦠| Marijn Markus
Escuadrilla Azul
Master Sergeant
- 2,297
- Feb 27, 2020
How can Ukrainia sustain and suply an invasion of Crimea?
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Lukashenko heeded Zelensky's warning and shut down Russia's repeaters.
Putin Pressures Lukashenko to Open New Front Against Ukraine as Belarus Resists
Belarus depends on Russia for financial support, so perhaps NATO or the EU can help wean him from Moscow with incentives (as long as he stops being an a-hole dictator).
Putin Pressures Lukashenko to Open New Front Against Ukraine as Belarus Resists
Belarus depends on Russia for financial support, so perhaps NATO or the EU can help wean him from Moscow with incentives (as long as he stops being an a-hole dictator).
buffnut453
Captain
It will undoubtedly be tough…but Russia is struggling to get basics like fuel to Crimea. It's tough to fight a battle without fuel.
Crimea has to be a strategic CoG for Putin, which means he'll have to divert resources from elsewhere to mount a sustained defense.
With a bit (ok…a LOT) of luck, the Kerch Bridge will become Russia's Highway of Death.
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
There actually is a "Highway of Death" in Ukraine.
It is the stretch of highway M14 and highway M18 (they intersect at Melitopol) between Simferopol and Mariupol.
I've seen a few vids at funker, where Russians try and run the gauntlet, driving hell-bent-for-leather as they weave around burned-out hulks and corpses.
MiTasol
Major
I do not think they need to.
Crimea is under siege and many civilians are fleeing. When the outflow stops then Ukraine can drop the last bridge and the Russian forces will starve until the war ends. Ukraine will then reclaim Crimea as it is already under defacto Ukrainian control.
Come winter the Russian military there may even surrender just to get food and Crimea become a large POW camp.
In the unlikely event that happened before the Duma election Putin is in deep doodoos.
MiTasol
Major
The photos I have seen have no troops so I think the flag was delivered and photographed by drone. I wish the Ukrainians had photo-shopped a platoon of soldiers in to the photo as that would have caused the Russian mil bloggers to go nuts and demand their eradication. More drone fodder for Ukraine.
Admiral Beez
Major
IDK, but any operation here is not part of a move on Crimea. The Kinburn Spit is no where near Crimea, see below. Instead, Ukrainian forces on the Kinburn Spit will likely help to liberate the remainder of occupied Kherson on the southern bank of the Dnipro. Only once Kherson Oblast is liberated can Ukraine's army turn southward to Crimea, likely in 2027.
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GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
The Dnipro campaign has been going on since September 2022 and has really had very little coverage in the media compared to other campaigns.
Ukrainians did land troops on the Kinburn Spit, but that is just a small event in the bigger picture of the campaign.
I know this is wiki, however, it does have a comprehensive timeline of events:
Dnieper campaign (2022–present) - Wikipedia
Ukrainians did land troops on the Kinburn Spit, but that is just a small event in the bigger picture of the campaign.
I know this is wiki, however, it does have a comprehensive timeline of events:
Dnieper campaign (2022–present) - Wikipedia
I'm trying to remember my estimates of the pre-war (2014) Crimean annual consumption and imports from the mainland. I did an extended analysis at the time when talks about the bridge had just begun. From the top of my head, total imports were around 3,5 mln t per year.. Excluding port transit (Crimean ports were export-oriented) and excluding the water supply by canal from the mainland. And including tourism-related imports, 0,2 mln t or so.
Since 2014 and 2022, especially, military traffic has increased significantly, and there has been migration in and out. Current figures are impossible to obtain; we can assume that fuel and construction materials (roads, fortifications) increased many times. Total is over 8.0 mln t, maybe.
If we take pre-war (2014) local consumption (excluding tourism) as the baseline, that means 3.3 mln t per year. Many hundreds of trucks per day.
Crimean ports are an unknown factor. They were degrading since 2014 due to sanctions. But then they were given a new job to export/tranship plundered Ukrainian grain, and some terminals restored their capacity. They can contribute to consumer imports into Crimea.
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Good news about Bayraktar TB2. Probably, one of the most capable systems to counter the Russian marine drone threat.
Ukraine sinks three Russian drone boats with Bayraktar strikes
Ukrainian forces destroyed three Russian explosive drone boats attempting to attack the Ukrainian coastline in the early hours of June 23, with Bayraktar TB2 combat drones delivering the strikes that sank the uncrewed vessels at sea, marking one of thedefence-blog.com
Von der Leyen announces the disbursement of €3.2bn to Ukraine, drone funding will follow shortly
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday 25 June the disbursement of the first €3.2 billion tranche of macro-financial assistance from the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine.
I admit it's getting better.
View: https://youtu.be/EGlo9LzmOME?si=OA_jJ61cbeqQRLQG
Ukraine launches one of its heaviest drone attacks on Russia
Authorities in Russian-annexed Crimea have declared an "emergency situation".
www.abc.net.au
buffnut453
Captain
Are any Russians left in Crimea? This video makes me wonder:
www.linkedin.com
#ukraine #militarystrategy #europeansecurity | Tim De Zitter | 70 comments
ðð¿ð¶ðºð²ð®âð ð¢ð°ð°ðð½ð®ðð¶ð¼ð» ð¡ð¼ð ðð®ð ð ð§ð¿ð®ð³ð³ð¶ð° ðð®ðº âï¸ Satellite imagery reportedly shows a traffic jam of more than 10 kilometres near the Kerch Bridge, with around 1,500 cars backed up as people try to leave occupied Crimea. That image says more than a battlefield map. For...
