Best strategy to avoid nuking Japan

[zjtins]

Sorry about the word use.

Depends on your definition of win. Some of the Japanese top brass felt to be invaded was the ultimate shame and were willing to take any casualties to prevent it. They were equipping their home guard (old men women and children) with spears with homemade poison and pottery hand grenades, suicide frogmen on the beach, suicide boats with anything from naval shells to aircraft bombs using car and motorcycle motors running on pine tar distillates. A bio agent to them seems to be nothing more than a more efficient killing machine

 

[GrauGeist]

...And means of delivering those bio agents to the mainland of the USA are in the realm of fantasy.

As mentioned before, the IJN I-400 class subs were very capable of delivering a nuke/bio weapon.

Good info found here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400-class_submarine for those that may be interested on the sub's history.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

As mentioned before, the IJN I-400 class subs were very capable of delivering a nuke/bio weapon.

Good info found here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400-class_submarine for those that may be interested on the sub's history.

These subs could have brought nuke/ bio weapons to US shores. It would have had a hard time delivering the nukes since the Aichi M6A1 Seiran only had a payload of just under 2,000 pounds. I doubt the Japanese "would have" been able to develop a bomb that weighed less than "Fat Man" or "Little Boy" (10,200 and 9,700 pounds)

Bio weapons, another story...

 

[tyrodtom]

A sub that has the range to deliver a nuke, yes, but the Japanese nuke is a fantasy.
Bio weapons yes, operational delivery systems for bio weapons, questionable.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

A sub that has the range to deliver a nuke, yes, but the Japanese nuke is a fantasy.

Agree, but all the sub is going to do is bring it close to shore, once there it just sits unless its going to be set off under water.

 

[zjtins]

Agree, but all the sub is going to do is bring it close to shore, once there it just sits unless its going to be set off under water.

Suicide mission several troops walk it ashore and ignite it (I assume they want to spread it).
Once suicide it considered much of the military theory goes out the window.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Suicide mission several troops walk it ashore and ignite it .

"Fat Man" and "Little Boy" weighed 10,200 and 9,700 pounds respectively. I hope these troops are strong!

 

[tyrodtom]

Why carry it anywhere ?
If a submarine could get it inside San Fransico Bay, or another west coast harbor, just set it off underwater. A tidal wave, like one the underwater nukes set off in Bikini Atoll.
Easy to say, get one of the biggest subs in the world inside a west coast harbor, and with a bomb that didn't exist.

 

[zjtins]

"Fat Man" and "Little Boy" weighed 10,200 and 9,700 pounds respectively. I hope these troops are strong!

I have been talking Bio... not nukes.

 

[zjtins]

Why carry it anywhere ?
If a submarine could get it inside San Fransico Bay, or another west coast harbor, just set it off underwater. A tidal wave, like one the underwater nukes set off in Bikini Atoll.
Easy to say, get one of the biggest subs in the world inside a west coast harbor, and with a bomb that didn't exist.

On the surface at night.

 

[Coyote]

The sub blockade was extremely effective. By Aug of '45 our subs were finding very few targets worth firing a torpedo at. The Japanese relied on shipping to get their oil and alot of their ores and minerals. Had we not used the Bombs Japan would have been on the verge of famine by early 1946. In fact after the war was over many Japanese civilians died from sickness and malnourishment.
As far as the Japanese using a nuke if they had it, sneak a sub into Ulithi Atoll. Sink 3-4 carriers, 3-4 BBs a couple cruisers and DDs all at once, that would get the US attention.

 

[stona]

There was zero chance of Japan developing an atomic weapon even with transfer of German technology in the 1940s. It's a dead horse and it won't run.

The biological "weapons" which were used in China were crude and would have been relatively ineffective against US targets. Even if deployed with, say, cholera bacteria the US had the means to treat the victims and contain/prevent an epidemic, unlike the Chinese.

Cheers

Steve

 

[zjtins]

By no means would any of this have changed the outcome, but they could have made it more costly for the US.
The I-400 I thought could stay under for over 2 days. They were very capable sub and it is more reasonable had they sent them en mase a few would have got to the cost and delivered potentially several tons of bio weapon material. How many casualties that would have cost the US is up for debate.

 

[stona]

How many casualties that would have cost the US is up for debate.

These weapons were extremely crude, barely out of the experimental phase. Plague carrying fleas were probably the most successful agents. There is a vast difference between the potential effects on a country like the USA with well organised and advanced medical services and the ability to acquire vaccines and run vaccination programs quickly and rural China where so many died.

Cheers

Steve

 

[Gixxerman]

There was zero chance of Japan developing an atomic weapon even with transfer of German technology in the 1940s. It's a dead horse and it won't run.

I'm not suggesting this as a plausible actual possibility.

I am suggesting that a few months after WW2 ended in Europe the allies couldn't be sure of what Japan had received from Germany how close they might be to fielding jets, rockets and God only knows what else should an invasion be necessary.

This along with the other usual considerations has me thinking it is no wonder the allied command preferred to try 'the bomb' rather than risk the huge losses casualties believed likely with invasion.

 

[stona]

I am suggesting that a few months after WW2 ended in Europe the allies couldn't be sure of what Japan had received from Germany how close they might be to fielding jets, rockets and God only knows what else should an invasion be necessary.

I see your point but I don't believe it was even a consideration. The Japanese had shown just what they were capable of throughout the war, culminating on Okinawa. This was without any "wonder weapons" resulting from German technology.
The US Division of Naval Intelligence did an extensive and unimaginatively named study of this ("German Technical Aid to Japan-A Survey") released, classified secret, in June 1945.

The document covers everything from radio, radar, guided missile systems, optical devices (all of which the Germans had "given" the Japanese, to much larger projects like aircraft (including jets) and submarines. Whatever technologies the Germans had shared the Japanese simply lacked the wherewithal to build the potential weapons in anything like significant numbers. The largest stumbling block late in the war was the same one that Japan had gone to war to surmount, a lack of raw materials.

On jet and rocket aircraft the Americans concluded.

"Me 163. It is believed that there is in Japan sufficient information on the Me 163 to allow the building of at least experimental models of that aircraft."

"Me 262. It is not believed that adequate information for the production of the Me 262 arrived in the Far East."

As far as guided weapons were concerned the Japanese expressed an interest in a manned version of the V-1.

Cheers

Steve

 

[GrauGeist]

There was an interesting intercept by "Ultra" in 1943, of a cargo of Uranium Oxide (1,000 pounds - 800kg) waiting to be picked up by the IJN I-52 (C-3 class sub) that was inbound to Lorient, France. The sub was bringing a shipment of gold for payment to the Germans along with other items and was to take back a great deal of materials including the Uranium. She was attacked and sunk on 24 June 44 by Avengers launched from the USS Bogue (CVE-9) before reaching France.

It is hard to say today what this Uranium may have been for, but there was some evidence that a "Radiological Weapon" was being researched by the Japanese during thier Atomic programs (Ni-Go, F-Go).

Whether or not they actually did look into a Radiological Weapon is lost to history, but had they produced them, it would have been possible to deliver them with an Aichi M6 launched from the I-400 class subs. A Radiological Weapon (aka Dirty Bomb) would not have produced the "flash-bang" of a conventional nuke or any significant damage, but it certainly would have caused harm and a great deal of panic to a population had it been deployed.

 

[VBF-13]

I'm not suggesting this as a plausible actual possibility.

I am suggesting that a few months after WW2 ended in Europe the allies couldn't be sure of what Japan had received from Germany how close they might be to fielding jets, rockets and God only knows what else should an invasion be necessary.

This along with the other usual considerations has me thinking it is no wonder the allied command preferred to try 'the bomb' rather than risk the huge losses casualties believed likely with invasion.

Let's understand one other thing. Around that time Japan was suing for peace. Credit that to the bombings of the home islands and the propaganda pamphlets dropped throughout Tokyo and on other select cities that convinced millions that resistance was futile and that they'd be treated humanely. It took the atomic bombs to tell them this wasn't a poker game.

 

[tyrodtom]

There was an interesting intercept by "Ultra" in 1943, of a cargo of Uranium Oxide (1,000 pounds - 800kg) waiting to be picked up by the IJN I-52 (C-3 class sub) that was inbound to Lorient, France. The sub was bringing a shipment of gold for payment to the Germans along with other items and was to take back a great deal of materials including the Uranium. She was attacked and sunk on 24 June 44 by Avengers launched from the USS Bogue (CVE-9) before reaching France.

It is hard to say today what this Uranium may have been for, but there was some evidence that a "Radiological Weapon" was being researched by the Japanese during thier Atomic programs (Ni-Go, F-Go).

Whether or not they actually did look into a Radiological Weapon is lost to history, but had they produced them, it would have been possible to deliver them with an Aichi M6 launched from the I-400 class subs. A Radiological Weapon (aka Dirty Bomb) would not have produced the "flash-bang" of a conventional nuke or any significant damage, but it certainly would have caused harm and a great deal of panic to a population had it been deployed.

I just don't see a dirty bomb being that effective in speading panic from fear of radiation, when very few people even knew anything about radiation sickness. Even the scientist were way behind until they had actual victims to study.
A good example of ignorance is bliss. They never knew enough to be afraid.

 

[GrauGeist]

Ignorance can also work the other way...

An example is the "great battle of Los Angeles" that occurred in 1942 that had an egdy populace run amok when someone thought they saw Japanese bombers and opened up with thier battery. Pretty soon the whole area was under alert, blacked out and sirens wailing while AA batteries were shooting the hell out of the darkness for several hours. End result was several people killed, many more wounded and a number of buildings damaged.

If a Dirty Bomb (or more) were delivered over a populated area and people got radiation poisoning, the hysteria would certainly grip an already jumpy population. Especially if they had no idea why these victims were dying or falling deathly ill from an otherwise harmless little bomb...