Covid-19 reports

[ThomasP]

Hey 33k in the air,

The data you present in your post#298 above is only for cases that have been "sequenced and genotyped" in order to differentiate what variant is involved. From the table headings you cite in the report:

"Table 4. Attendance to emergency care and deaths of sequenced and genotyped cases in England (1 February 2021 to 15 August 2021)"

"Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths of sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in England by vaccination status (1 February 2021 to 15 August 2021)"

The study which the Technical Briefing describes is intended to keep an eye on the behavior of emerging variants and compare them to previous variants.

I think you have incorrectly assumed that the total new cases of the Delta variant is 346,459 since 1 February 2021, as opposed to only the ones that have been "sequenced and genotyped" referenced in the report. You have done the same for the number of deaths, ie 1,173.

The actual number of new cases in the UK since 1 February 2021 is over 2,430,000. The number of deaths since 1 February 2021 is over 24,380. The 679 deaths in the fully vaccinated sample, attributed to the Delta variant, is ~23% of the total of ~3,000 deaths due to COVID-19 in the fully vaccinated. The remaining 21,300 deaths occurred in the unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated group. Since the rate of full vaccination in the UK is ~75% in the eligible population (ie ~40,000,000 age 16+) you can see that the death rate among the fully vaccinated is far below that of the unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated group (ie 13,800,000 age 16+). I would provide a ratio of likelyhood for the fully vaccinated vs the unvaccinated as I did for the state of Indiana in my post#285 up-thread, but I do not have data on how many of the new cases are among the under 16 age group in the UK vs the over 16 age group eligible for vaccination. There is, however, no reason to think it would vary greatly from:

If you are vaccinated you are ~45x less likely to catch COVID-19.

When you add in the fact that If you do not catch COVID-19 you will not be hospitalized or die from COVID-19 (Duh!) you get:

If you are vaccinated you are - at a minimum ~45x less likely be hospitalized due to COVID-19.

If you are vaccinated you are - at a minimum ~45x less likely to die from COVID-19.

I assume you can see that the way you have presented the data in your post#298 is incorrect and potentially misleading.

 

[33k in the air]

U.K. Technical Briefing 21
Age bracketed, full Delta variant data


Under 50 years of age

Distribution of Delta variant cases
58.93% = unvaccinated (178,240 unvaccinated cases out of 302,437 total cases)
. 8.59% = <21 days after 1st dose (25,965 / 302,437)
19.07% = 21+ days after 1st dose (57,668 / 302,437)
13.41% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (40,544 / 302,437)

Emergency care visit (exclusive) rate
4.20% = unvaccinated (7,479 EC visits out of 178,240 unvaccinated cases)
3.41% = <21 days after 1st dose (886 / 25,965)
2.74% = 21+ days after 1st dose (1,581 / 57,688)
2.86% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (1,161 / 40,544)

Emergency care visit requiring an overnight stay (exclusive) rate
1.03% = unvaccinated (1,840 EC visits out of 178,240 unvaccinated cases)
0.55% = <21 days after 1st dose (144 / 25,965)
0.46% = 21+ days after 1st dose (267 / 57,688)
0.61% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (246 / 40,544)

Fatality rate
0.04% = unvaccinated (72 deaths out of 178,240 unvaccinated cases)
0.02% = <21 days after 1st dose (144 / 25,965)
0.01% = 21+ days after 1st dose (267 / 57,688)
0.07% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (246 / 40,544)


50 years of age or older

Distribution of Delta variant cases
11.11% = unvaccinated (4,891 unvaccinated cases out of 44,022 total cases)
. 0.52% = <21 days after 1st dose (228 / 44,022)
13.80% = 21+ days after 1st dose (6,075 / 44,022)
74.57% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (32,828 / 44,022)

Emergency care visit (exclusive) rate
15.13% = unvaccinated (740 EC visits out of 4,891 unvaccinated cases)
. 8.33% = <21 days after 1st dose (19 / 228)
. 6.12% = 21+ days after 1st dose (372 / 6,075)
. 5.49% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (1,803 / 32,828)

Emergency care visit requiring an overnight stay (exclusive) rate
8.79% = unvaccinated (430 EC visits out of 4,891 unvaccinated cases)
5.70% = <21 days after 1st dose (13 / 228)
2.45% = 21+ days after 1st dose (149 / 6,075)
3.02% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (990 / 32,828)

Fatality rate
6.50% = unvaccinated (318 EC visits out of 4,891 unvaccinated cases)
3.51% = <21 days after 1st dose (8 / 228)
1.40% = 21+ days after 1st dose (85 / 6,075)
1.99% = 14+ days after 2nd dose (652 / 32,828)


Data source (See Table 5 on pages 22-23 of the report PDF)

 

[33k in the air]

I think you have incorrectly assumed that the total new cases of the Delta variant is 346,459 since 1 February 2021, as opposed to only the ones that have been "sequenced and genotyped" referenced in the report. You have done the same for the number of deaths, ie 1,173.

I am not assuming anything. I have simply posted the data as it exists in the Technical Briefing 21 report. Its data says what it says. If the Technical Briefing is limiting its data sample, ask its authors why it is doing so. The source is linked, so those interested can read it for themselves.

As I understand it, the specific type of COVID variant can only be confirmed by gene sequencing. The PCR test itself cannot determine the variant type.

 

[33k in the air]

Canada
Public Health of Agency of Canada data published August 20th; covers Dec. 14, 2020, through July 31, 2021.

Case distribution by vaccination status
89.26% = unvaccinated (557,831 unvaccinated cases out of 624,980 total cases)
. 5.28% = not yet protected (32,980 / 624,980)
. 4.88% = partially protected (30.197 / 624,980)
. 0.64% = fully protected (3,972 / 624,980)

Hospitalization distribution by vaccination status
84.73% = unvaccinated (28,265 unvaccinated hospitalizations out of 33,359 total hospitalizations)
. 7.36% = not yet protected (2,455 / 33,359)
. 7.06% = partially protected (2,365 / 33,359)
. 0.85% = fully protected (283 / 33,359)

Fatality distribution by vaccination status
81.99% = unvaccinated (5,944 unvaccinated deaths out of 7,250 total deaths)
. 8.81% = not yet protected (639 / 7,250)
. 7.83% = partially protected (568 / 7,250)
. 1.37% = fully protected (99 / 7,250)

Based on the above, it would appear vaccinations are doing well.

However, examining the data on a rate basis within each vaccination status group yields a different result.

Hospitalization rate by vaccination status
5.07% = unvaccinated (28,265 hospitalizations out of 557,831 unvaccinated cases)
7.44% = not yet protected (2,455 / 32,980)
7.80% = partially protected (2,365 / 30,197)
7.12% = fully protected (283 / 3,972)

Fatality rate by vaccination status
1.07% = unvaccinated (5,944 deaths out of 557,831 unvaccinated cases)
1.94% = not yet protected (639 / 32,980)
1.88% = partially protected (568 / 30,197)
2.49% = fully protected (99 / 3,972)

The unvaccinated have the lowest rate for both hospitalizations and deaths of the four vaccination status groups, although the difference is only about one to two percentage points.

Definitions
Not yet protected = <14 days after first dose
Partially protected = 14+ days after first dose through <14 days after second dose
Fully protected = 14+ days after second dose

Data source (See Figure 5 and Table 2)

 

[33k in the air]

Ontario
Data snapshot as of August 21st.

Long-term care residents: 15,421 cases and 3,975 deaths = 25.78% case fatality rate
Long-term care workers: . . 7,227 cases and . . .10 deaths = . 0.14% case fatality rate
Rest of population: . . . . 536,142 cases and 5,466 deaths = . 1.02% case fatality rate

Long-term care residents in Ontario are about 0.55% of the population, 2.76% of COVID cases, and 42.06% of COVID deaths.

The one positive development is that the daily number of reported COVID cases and deaths among LTC residents has been low since the end of February.

In the 174 days spanning Mar. 1st through Aug. 21st:
463 cases and 111 deaths -- an average of 2.66 cases and 0.64 deaths per day

In the 174 days before that, spanning Sept. 8th through Feb. 28th:
9,007 cases and 2,047 deaths -- an average of 51.76 cases and 11.76 deaths per day

Cases and fatalities are down nearly 95% over the last 174 days compared to the 174 days before that.

Source: Status of COVID-19 cases in Ontario

 

[ThomasP]

Hey 33k in the air,

re your post#304

"However, examining the data on a rate basis within each vaccination status group yields a different result."

and

"The unvaccinated have the lowest rate for both hospitalizations and deaths of the four vaccination status groups, although the difference is only about one to two percentage points."

What "However" are you talking about?

Please read the rest of the report.

In the report under "Cases reported since the start of the vaccination campaign, as of July 31, 2021"

There were ~827,800 (624,980 / .755) new cases (age 12 and older) between December 14, 2020 (the start of the Canadian vaccination campaign) and July 31, 2021. Of those cases the reporting agency received the vaccine history for 75.5% (ie 624,980), out of which:

557,831 were in the unvaccinated

63,177 were in the partially protected or partially vaccinated

3,972 were in the fully vaccinated

Note the ratio of new cases in the unvaccinated vs vaccinated categories, ie 140:1

Under Table 2 just before Table 3:

"Fully vaccinated individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 were significantly protected from severe outcomes. Compared to unvaccinated cases, fully vaccinated cases were 71% less likely to be hospitalized and 48% less likely to die as a result of their illness (Table 3)."

and of course Table 3 itself.

Your analysis is incorrect.

 

[at6]

Don't worry about dying from Covid. This thread is boring us to death.

 

[ARTESH]

I found this picture! It says that according to government, 13975 people are dead by COVID-19, just in past month (in Persian calender)

 

[33k in the air]

Alberta
Data through August 19th

Case Rate by Age Group
0-9 years: . . 4.26% (23,347 cases out of 548,572 people in the age group)
10-19 years: 6.26% (32,736 / 522,837)
20-29 years: 7.59% (45,240 / 596,059)
30-39 years: 6.58% (46,493 / 706,553)
40-49 years: 6.34% (37,771 / 595,391)
50-59 years: 5.04% (27,925 / 553,818)
60-69 years: 3.51% (16,046 / 456,607)
70-79 years: 2.78% (6,842 / 245,888)
80+ years: . .4.72% (6,421 / 135,969)

Hospitalization Rate by Age Group
0-9 years: . . . 0.57% (132 hospitalizations out of 23,347 cases in the age group)
10-19 years: . 0.52% (169 / 32,736)
20-29 years: . 1,21% (549 / 45,240)
30-39 years: . 2.13% (991 / 46,493)
40-49 years: . 3.24% (1,225 / 37,771)
50-59 years: . 6.25% (1,744 / 27,925)
60-69 years: 10.95% (1,757 / 16,046)
70-79 years: 23.11% (1,581 / 6,842)
80+ years: . .28.92% (1,857 / 6,421)

ICU Admissions Rate by Age Group
0-9 years: . . 0.15% (34 ICU admissions out of 23,347 cases in the age group)
10-19 years: 0.07% (23 / 32,736)
20-29 years: 0,15% (66 / 45,240)
30-39 years: 0.32% (147 / 46,493)
40-49 years: 0.68% (257 / 37,771)
50-59 years: 1.57% (438 / 27,925)
60-69 years: 3.17% (509 / 16,046)
70-79 years: 4.74% (324 / 6,842)
80+ years: . .1.39% (89 / 6,421)

Fatality Rate by Age Group
0-9 years: . . . 0.00% (0 deaths out of 23,347 cases in the age group)
10-19 years: . 0.00% (0 / 32,736)
20-29 years: . 0.02% (10 / 45,240)
30-39 years: . 0.03% (15 / 46,493)
40-49 years: . 0.12% (47 / 37,771)
50-59 years: . 0.43% (119 / 27,925)
60-69 years: . 1.78% (300 / 16,046)
70-79 years: . 7.16% (490 / 6,842)
80+ years: . .21.20% (1,361 / 6,421)

Note: 176 cases for which the age of the person was unknown were excluded. Case rate calculation used Statistics Canada mid-2019 population estimates.

Data source

 

[Vincenzo]

Italy report, 23rd August, weekly change, from monday to monday
cases 4,488,779 +44,441, deaths 128,795 +339, recovered 4,224,429, +37,243, active cases 135,555, +6,859, tests 56,364,064, +562,878, people tested 32,098,419, +344,445, vaccines administered 75,544,280, +1,587,782, people full vaccinated 36,489,907, +837,505.
fatality rate 2.9% (=)
mortality rate 2,135 per million (+5)
positive rate 14% (=)
vaccines on population 1,252,454 per million (+26,324)
people full vaccinated 604,969 per million (+13,885)
test rate this week 9,332 per million (-216)
positive rate this week 12.9% (+0.1)
new case rate this week 737 per million (+12)
new vaccines this week 26,324 per million (-5,688)
people full vaccinated this week 13,885 per million (-2,823)

 

[Greg Boeser]

So even with a >60% vax rate you are still seeing a 13% positivity rate?

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Greg Boeser,

The Minnesota positivity rate is about 5%* for the last week, so almost the same as for Italy, and we have a similar vaccination rate: out of 5,300,000+ people, 57% are fully vaccinated with another 4% partially vaccinated.

But it needs to be remembered that about 90% of the new cases are in the unvaccinated group, about 9% are in the partially vaccinated/not yet fully protected group, and less than 1% are in the fully vaccinated/protected group.

*edit - had a typo, corrected 16.5% to 5%

 

[33k in the air]

Canada
National data as of August 20th

Case Rate by Age Group
0-19 years: . 3.48% .(282,845 cases out of 8,121,022 people in the age group)
20-29 years: 5.55% .(283,105 / 5,101,604)
30-39 years: 4.64% .(240,492 / 5,186,274)
40-49 years: 4.41% .(212,423 / 4,819,894)
50-59 years: 3.58% .(188,161 / 5,255,814)
60-69 years: 2.52% .(116,053 / 4,611,490)
70-79 years: 2.12% .(60,763 / 2,872,378)
80+ years: . .4.40% .(71,524 / 1,624,908)

All-Case Fatality Rate by Age Group
0-19 years: . . 0.005% (15 deaths out of 282,845 cases in the age group)
20-29 years: . 0.02% .(67 / 283,105)
30-39 years: . 0.06% .(152 / 240,492)
40-49 years: . 0.16% .(347 / 212,4234)
50-59 years: . 0.54% .(1,010 / 188,161)
60-69 years: . 2.23% .(2,589 / 116,053)
70-79 years: . 8.92% .(5,418 / 60,763)
80+ years: . .23.88% .(17,077 / 71,524)

Per Capita Fatality Rate by Age Group
0-19 years: . 0.00018% = 1 in 541,401 (15 deaths out of 8,121,022 people in the age group)
20-29 years: 0.0013% . = 1 in 76,143 . (67 / 5,101,604)
30-39 years: 0.0029% . = 1 in 34,120 . (152 / 5,186,274)
40-49 years: 0.0072% . = 1 in 13,890 . (347 / 4,819,894)
50-59 years: 0.0192% . = 1 in 5,204 . . (1,010 / 5,255,814)
60-69 years: 0.0561% . = 1 in 1,781 . . (2,589 / 4,611,490)
70-79 years: 0.1866% . = 1 in 530 . . . .(5,418 / 2,872,378)
80+ years: . .1.0510% . = 1 in 95 . . . . .(17,077 / 1,624,908)

Data source (See Figure 4 and Figure 7. Use the drop-down menu on the latter to select the category.)

Population figures are Statistics Canada's mid-2019 population estimates.

 

[Greg Boeser]

T ThomasP
Where are you getting that number?
The MN Dept Health is showing about 5-6%
Unless I'm reading their graph wrong?

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/covidweekly3321.pdf

 

[Vincenzo]

Greg Boeser my data are not for (new) positive/test but (new) positive/new people tested,

 

[at6]

When will this thread get Covid and die?

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Greg Boeser,

Sorry, I made a typo. I meant to type 5%, not 16.5%. Thanks for pointing out my mistake. I have corrected my post above. The reason I said that Minnesota and Italy had similar positive test rates is from the data

For 17 August thru 23 August 2021, Italy had 7.9% of tests given come back positive.
From Vincenzo's numbers upthread:
44,441 new cases / 562,878 new tests = 7.9%

For 15 August thru 21 August 2021, Minnesota had 4.9% of tests given come back positive.
From the site you posted upthread (which is the same one I use for the most part):
8,770 new cases / 178,728 new tests = 4.9%

 

[Zipper730]

When will this thread get Covid and die?

Actually the thread is pretty young, so even if it gets Covid, it's unlikely to die...

... okay, that was lame.

 

[33k in the air]

Actually the thread is pretty young, so even if it gets Covid, it's unlikely to die...

... okay, that was lame.

Lame, perhaps, but accurate based on the data from multiple jurisdictions.

 

[33k in the air]

Here in Canada, a third province has now decided to implement a COVID vaccine passport scheme: British Columbia. It joins Quebec and Manitoba.

B.C. Public Health Office announcement. Details of system.

The key points:

-----------------------------------

By order of the PHO, proof of vaccination will be required to access some events, services and businesses. Starting September 13, you must have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. By October 24, you must be fully vaccinated.

The requirement applies to all people born in 2009 or earlier (12+) and covers:

• Indoor ticketed concerts, theatre, dance, symphony and sporting events
• Indoor and outdoor dining at restaurants, pubs and bars
• Nightclubs and casinos
• Movie theatres
• Gyms, pools and recreation facilities
  • Does not include youth recreational sport
• Indoor high intensity group exercise
• Indoor organized gatherings like weddings, parties, conferences, meetings and workshops
• Indoor organized group recreational classes and activities like pottery and art
  • Does not include K to 12 school and before and after school programs
• Post-secondary on-campus student housing. Note: Students must be partially vaccinated by September 7

Events, businesses and services will ask to see your proof of vaccination and valid government ID.

The requirement is in place until January 31, 2022, subject to extension.

-----------------------------------

"Subject to extension." Does anyone really think they're going to repeal this scheme at the end of January? [/cynic]

Notice also what this measure does NOT include: NO provisions for (a) those who have natural immunity from already having had the virus (this is some 150,000 people, or nearly 3% of the provincial population); (b) those who have a medical condition which prevents them from being vaccinated; (c) those who have objections on religious or conscientious grounds.

Rumor has it Ontario will follow in a few weeks, despite the premier and health minister having said last month that the province would not take such a measure.