Covid-19 reports

Well, things are heating up in Fortress New Zealand and as mentioned in another thread, my girlfriend informed me she was in close contact with someone who had tested positive for COVID, so I went for a test yesterday and am in isolation for the time being. My girlfriend's first test came back negative, but it was early days, she has to go for another on Friday, I don't, but the worst thing is her kids are showing symptoms, so she's kept them from school and is having them tested.

Some stats from the guh-mint.

Vincenzo said:

Italy report, 14th February, weekly Monday to Monday changes
cases 12,134,451, +471,113, deaths 151,296, +2,199, recovered 10,392,540, +869,000, active cases 1,590,615, -400,086 tests 83,677,548, +1,071,556, people tested 50,287,710, +748,641, vaccines administered 132,208,910*, +1,312,553, people "full" vaccinated 47,870,720, +112,813.
fatality rate 1.2% (-0.1)
mortality rate 2,508 per million (+36)
positive rate 24.1% (+0.6)
vaccines on population 2,191,901 per million (+21,761)
people "full" vaccinated 793,652 per million (+1,870)
test rate this week 17,765 per million (-3,177)
positive rate this week 62.9% (-6.8)**
new case rate this week 7,811 per million (-3,466)
new vaccines this week 21,761 per million (-24,663)
people "full" vaccinated this week 1,870 per million (-4,784)

* the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 12 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 54 millions, 36,255,285 shot did (+1,047,280)

** some regions, idk if all, now accept as positive status certification the rapid test, that i'm not including in the report

Click to expand...

The ISS extended reports include a table showing the vaccination status by age group for the entire 12+ population. See Table 5A on page 25 of the report. For Jan. 22, 2022, the numbers were estimated to be:

Ages 12-39
Unvaccinated: 2,219,338 (12.73% of the 12-39 population)
Partially vaccinated: 790,453 (4.53%)
Fully vaccinated for 120 days or less: 4,135,263 (23.72%)
Fully vaccinated for more than 120 days: 6,940,175 (39.81%)
Fully vaccinated with a booster: 3,348,303 (19.21%)

Ages 40-59
Unvaccinated: 2,248,822 (12.20% of the 40-59 population)
Partially vaccinated: 480,236 (2.61%)
Fully vaccinated for 120 days or less: 2,168,968 (11.77%)
Fully vaccinated for more than 120 days: 6,129,646 (33.27%)
Fully vaccinated with a booster: 7,398,915 (40.15%)

Ages 60-79
Unvaccinated: 954,620 (7.04% of the 60-79 population)
Partially vaccinated: 222,091 (1.64%)
Fully vaccinated for 120 days or less: 627,232 (4.63%)
Fully vaccinated for more than 120 days: 3,421,888 (25.24%)
Fully vaccinated with a booster: 8,333,312 (61.46%)

Ages 80+
Unvaccinated: 187,961 (4.09% of the 80+ population)
Partially vaccinated: 82,553 (1.80%)
Fully vaccinated for 120 days or less: 93,573 (2.04%)
Fully vaccinated for more than 120 days: 787,756 (17.16%)
Fully vaccinated with a booster: 3,438,840 (74.91%)

The ISS extended reports contain interesting data. These reports have been published about once per week going all the way back to March of 2020. The more recent reports allow for the calculation of real-world crude infection rates, as well as hospitalization, ICU admission, and fatality rates, by vaccination status and age group. By using all prior reports, cumulative fatality rates by age group can be determined, allowing one to see how the CFRs have changed over time, as as well as other analyses.

While only the most recent extended report is directly accessible on the Epicentro website, all prior reports are still there. You just have to replace the file name portion of the IP address with the correct file name. I've downloaded every extended report. If anyone wishes to see the links to all ISS extended reports so they can download the reports for themselves, just say so and I'll post them.

Italy — quarterly case fatality rate by age group, as determined from the data in the weekly ISS extended reports.

First Quarter 2020 (13 weeks, up through Apr. 2, 2020)
0-49 years: . . 0.53% (145 deaths out of 27,321 cases)
50-69 years: . 4.93% (1,927 / 39,064)
70+ years: . .26.29% (10,476 / 39,846)

Second Quarter 2020 (13 weeks, Apr. 3, 2020, through June 30, 2020)
0-49 years: . . 0.55% (237 / 43,303)
50-69 years: . 7.38% (2,658 / 36,034)
70+ years: . .33.35% (18,293 / 54,849)

Third Quarter 2020 (13 weeks, July 1, 2020, through Sept. 29, 2020)
0-49 years: . . 0.05% (25 / 47,424)
50-69 years: . 1.68% (269 / 16,010)
70+ years: . .27.48% (1,869 / 6,801)

Fourth Quarter 2020 (13 weeks, Sept. 30, 2020, through Dec. 29, 2020)
0-49 years: . . 0.04% (399 / 953,919)
50-69 years: . 0.86% (4,340 / 506,727)
70+ years: . .10.83% (30,159 / 278,516)

First Quarter 2021 (13 weeks, Dec. 30, 2020, through Mar. 31, 2021)
0-49 years: . . 0.05% (388 / 852,458)
50-69 years: . 1.10% (4,631 / 420,149)
70+ years: . .14.26% (31,751 / 222,689)

Second Quarter 2021 (13 weeks, Apr. 1, 2021, through June 30, 2021)
0-49 years: . . 0.07% (285 / 432,892)
50-69 years: . 2.01% (3,727 / 185,170)
70+ years: . .19.01% (15,037 / 79,102)

Third Quarter 2021 (13 weeks, July 1, 2021, through Sept. 29, 2021)
0-49 years: . . 0.04% (117 / 311,577)
50-69 years: . 0.91% (750 / 82,200)
70+ years: . . .8.37% (2,772 / 33,126)

Fourth Quarter 2021 (13 weeks, Sept. 30, 2021, through Dec. 28, 2021)
0-49 years: . . 0.02% (109 / 720,728)
50-69 years: . 0.36% (870 / 240,831)
70+ years: . . .4.90% (4,863 / 99,202)

Note the large drop-off in CFR from the second to the third quarter of 2020 in the two of age groups. The 0-49 CFR dropped to one-tenth of its former amount, while the 50-69 CFR fell to less than one-quarter of the amount in the preceding quarter. This is well before any vaccines were available. Note also the rates never return to anywhere near those seen in the first half of 2020.

The 70+ age group saw its large drop-off occurring from the third to the fourth quarter of 2020, with its CFR falling to two-fifths of the rate in the prior quarter.

Hey 33k in the air,

From page 4 paragraph 5 of the report you reference above:

"Il tasso di mortalità standardizzato per età, relativo alla popolazione di età ≥ 12 anni, nel periodo 17/12/2021-16/01/2022, per i non vaccinati (103 decessi per 100.000 ab.) risulta circa nove volte più alto rispetto ai vaccinati con ciclo completo da ≤ 120 giorni (12 decessi per 100.000 ab.) e circa ventitré volte più alto rispetto ai vaccinati con dose aggiuntiva/booster (4 decessi per 100.000 ab.)."

Translation:

"The age-standardized death rate, relative to the population aged ≥12 years, in the period 17/12/2021 - 16/01/2022, for the unvaccinated (103 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) [is] approximately nine times higher than [for those] vaccinated with a full course of ≤120 days (12 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) and about twenty-three times higher than for those vaccinated with [an] additional/booster dose (4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants)."

33k in the air said:

Note the large drop-off in CFR from the second to the third quarter of 2020 in the two of age groups. The 0-49 CFR dropped to one-tenth of its former amount, while the 50-69 CFR fell to less than one-quarter of the amount in the preceding quarter. This is well before any vaccines were available. Note also the rates never return to anywhere near those seen in the first half of 2020.

Click to expand...

You need to count that it's accepted that in the 1st wave the case count it's understimated

An interesting observation from the ISS extended reports:

Italy has recorded more cases of COVID in the last 43 days (5,810,874 from Dec. 29, 2021, through Feb. 9, 2022) than it did in the previous 678 days (5,730,040 from Feb. 20, 2020, through Dec. 28, 2021). That's despite, on Dec. 25, 2021, having 64.77% of its 12+ population fully vaccinated and a further 20.36% of the 12+ population fully vaccinated with a booster. (That's a total of 85.13% of the 12+ population having had two or three shots.)

One might assume the unvaccinated constitute a very large portion of those recent cases, but the data shows otherwise. The figure on the left shows the percentage of the 12+ population which fell within the stated vaccination status category as of Dec. 25, 2021, while the figure on the right shows the percentage of the 12+ population which were new cases from Dec. 31, 2021, through Jan. 30, 2022, and which fell within the stated vaccination category. The number in parentheses is the percentage point difference between the two.

11.83% | 21.08% = unvaccinated (+9.25)
. 3.07% | . 3.59% = partially vaccinated (+0.52)
19.28% | 17.90% = fully vaccinated for 120 days or less (-1.38)
45.49% | 39.91% = fully vaccinated for over 120 days (-5.58)
20.36% | 17.52% = fully vaccinated with a booster (-2.84)

These distributions are mostly quite similar.


The breakdown of those Dec. 29, 2021, through Feb. 9, 2022, cases by age group, showing the number of cases, number of deaths, and the case fatality rate.

Links to all of Italy's published ISS extended reports.

March 12, 2020
March 30, 2020
April 2, 2020
April 9, 2020
April 16, 2020
April 23, 2020
April 28, 2020
May 7, 2020
May 14, 2020
May 20, 2020
May 26, 2020
June 3, 2020
June 9, 2020
June 16, 2020
June 23, 2020
June 30, 2020
July 7, 2020
July 14, 2020
July 21, 2020
July 28, 2020
August 4, 2020
August 11, 2020
August 18, 2020
August 25, 2020
September 1, 2020
September 8, 2020
September 15, 2020
September 22, 2020
September 29, 2020
October 6, 2020
October 13, 2020
October 20, 2020
October 27, 2020
November 7, 2020
November 11, 2020
November 18, 2020
November 25, 2020
December 2, 2020
December 9, 2020
December 16, 2020
December 22, 2020
December 29, 2020

January 5, 2021
January 13, 2021
January 20, 2021
January 27, 2021
February 3, 2021
February 10, 2021
February 17, 2021
February 24, 2021
March 3, 2021
March 10, 2021
March 17, 2021
March 24, 2021
March 31, 2021
April 7, 2021
April 14, 2021
April 21, 2021
April 28, 2021
May 5, 2021
May 12, 2021
May 19, 2021
May 26, 2021
June 1, 2021
June 9, 2021
June 16, 2021
June 23, 2021
June 30, 2021
July 7, 2021
July 14, 2021
July 21, 2021
July 28, 2021
August 4, 2021
August 11, 2021
August 18, 2021
August 25, 2021
September 1, 2021
September 8, 2021
September 15, 2021
September 22, 2021
September 29, 2021
October 6, 2021
October 13, 2021
October 20, 2021
October 27, 2021
November 3, 2021
November 10, 2021
November 17, 2021
November 24, 2021
December 1, 2021
December 7, 2021
December 15, 2021
December 21, 2021
December 28, 2021

January 5, 2022
January 12, 2022
January 19, 2022
January 26, 2022
February 2, 2022
February 9, 2022
February 16, 2022

Update: added link to most recent extended report

Hey 33k in the air,

re "One might assume the unvaccinated constitute a very large portion of those recent cases, but the data shows otherwise. The figure on the left shows the percentage of the 12+ population which fell within the stated vaccination status category as of Dec. 25, 2021, while the figure on the right shows the percentage of the 12+ population which were new cases from Dec. 31, 2021, through Jan. 30, 2022, and which fell within the stated vaccination category. The number in parentheses is the percentage point difference between the two.

11.83% | 21.08% = unvaccinated (+9.25)
. 3.07% | . 3.59% = partially vaccinated (+0.52)
19.28% | 17.90% = fully vaccinated for 120 days or less (-1.38)
45.49% | 39.91% = fully vaccinated for over 120 days (-5.58)
20.36% | 17.52% = fully vaccinated with a booster (-2.84)"

I am not sure what you are trying to communicate here?? If you are saying that the vaccinated still catch COVID-19, you are correct. This is to be expected as the virus mutates.

As the number of unvaccinated who have contracted COVID-19 and recovered (or died) increases, and/or the % of people receiving vaccinations increases, the numbers you have calculated above will become even more similar. Eventually, at the current rates of infection, if 99% of the population become vaccinated you will have 98% of the cases occurring among the vaccinated. If 100% of the population is vaccinated you will have 100% of the new cases occurring among the vaccinated. So . . . ?

The primary benefits for the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated are the lower hospitalization and fatality rates among the vaccinated. As I pointed out upthread, the ISS report states that in Italy the unvaccinated are 9x more likely to die than the fully vaccinated, and 23x more likely to die than the fully vaccinated + a booster. These numbers are similar to what is being reported in the populations of other countries with modern health care systems and significant vaccination rates.

In Minnesota at the height of the Delta variant in October-November of 2021, the unvaccinated were 30x more likely to be hospitalized and 15x more likely to die than the fully vaccinated - accounting for the greatest difference in the effects of vaccination status to date (the Delta variant had the highest fatality rate of any variant so far). Currently, with the predominance of the more transmissible but significantly less deadly Omicron variant, the unvaccinated Minnesotan is 9.25x more likely to die than a person who is fully vaccinated. (I have not been able to find the Minnesota numbers for the fully vaccinated + booster.)

As is the case with most deadly diseases, the elderly and infirm will continue to suffer disproportionately high fatality rates.

As of the Feb. 16, 2022, ISS extended report:

Italy has recorded 9.5% more cases of COVID in the last 50 days (6,273,215 from Dec. 29, 2021, through Feb. 16, 2022) than it did in the previous 678 days (5,730,040 from Feb. 20, 2020, through Dec. 28, 2021).


The crude real-world infection rate by vaccination status category. Vaccination status population figures as of Jan. 8, 2022; case numbers are for the period of Jan 14, 2022, through Feb. 13, 2022. All figures are for those aged 12 or older only. Data from the ISS extended reports.

10.64% = unvaccinated (642,419 cases out of 6,040,050 unvaccinated individuals)
. 6.19% = partially vaccinated (102,315 / 1,652,417)
. 4.85% = fully vaccinated for 120 days or less (439,413 / 9,055,320)
. 4.22% = fully vaccinated for more than 120 days (848,833 / 20,133,986)
. 4.19% = fully vaccinated with a booster (717,143 / 17,128,172)

Note that it's not the absolute number that is of main importance, but rather the relative difference between categories. Note further the relative differences vary when breaking down the figures by age group and vaccination status category.

Italy report, 21st February, weekly Monday to Monday changes
cases 12,494,459, +360,008, deaths 153,190, +1,894, recovered 11,019,298, +626,758, active cases 1,321,971, -268,644 tests 84,507,224, +829,676, people tested 50,898,597, +610,887, vaccines administered 133,273,972*, +1,065,062, people "full" vaccinated 48,074,674, +203,954.
fatality rate 1.2% (=)
mortality rate 2,540 per million (+32)
positive rate 24.5% (+0.4)
vaccines on population 2,209,559 per million (+17,658)
people "full" vaccinated 797,034 per million (+3,382)
test rate this week 13,755 per million (-4,010)
positive rate this week 58.9% (-4)**
new case rate this week 5,969 per million (-1,842)
new vaccines this week 17,658 per million (-4,103)
people "full" vaccinated this week 3,382 per million (+1,512)

* the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 12 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 54 millions, 36,948,006 shot did (+692,721)
from the 1st March will start the 4th/3rd shot campaign for the most fragile, estimated in around 900 thousands people

** some regions, idk if all, now accept as positive status certification the rapid test, that i'm not including in the report

Total deaths in my town go up to 15.

Italy report, 28th February, weekly Monday to Monday changes
cases 12,782,836, +288,377, deaths 154,767, +1,577, recovered 11,528,135, +508,837, active cases 1,099,934, -222,037 tests 85,251,765, +744,541, people tested 51,449,663, +551,066, vaccines administered 134,097,363*, +823,391, people "full" vaccinated 48,233,473, +158,799.
fatality rate 1.2% (=)
mortality rate 2,566 per million (+26)
positive rate 24.8% (+0.3)
vaccines on population 2,223,210 per million (+13,651)
people "full" vaccinated 799,666 per million (+2,632)
test rate this week 12,344 per million (-1,411)
positive rate this week 52.3% (-6.6)**
new case rate this week 4,781 per million (-1,188)
new vaccines this week 13,651 per million (-4,007)
people "full" vaccinated this week 2,633 per million (-749)

* the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 12 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 54 millions but around 4 millions get the covid so they don't need the booster shot, 37,499,159 shot did (+551,153)
from the 1st March will start the 4th/3rd shot campaign for the most fragile, estimated in around 900 thousands people
** some regions, idk if all, now accept as positive status certification the rapid test, that i'm not including in the report

Italy report, 28th March, 4 week changes
cases 14,396,283, +1,613,447, deaths 158,877, +4,110, recovered 12,983,350, +1,455,215, active cases 1,254,056, +154,122 tests 87,968,303, +2,716,538, people tested 53,962,864, +2,513,201, vaccines administered 135,805,580*, +1,708,217, people "full" vaccinated 48,501,482, +268,009.
fatality rate 1.1% (-0.1)
mortality rate 2,634 per million (+68)
positive rate 26.7% (+1.9)
vaccines on population 2,251,531 per million (+28,321)
people "full" vaccinated 804,110 per million (+4,444)
test rate this 4 week 45,038 per million (NA)
positive rate this 4 week 64.2% (+11.9)**
new case rate this 4 week 26,749 per million (NA)
new vaccines this 4 week 28,321 per million (NA)
people "full" vaccinated this 4 week 4,444 per million (NA)

* the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 12 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 54 millions but near 5 millions get the covid so they don't need the booster shot, 38,728,435 shot did (+1,229,276)
from the 1st March will start the 4th/3rd shot campaign for the most fragile, estimated in around 900 thousands people, 55,794 shot did
** some regions, idk if all, now accept as positive status certification the rapid test, that i'm not including in the report

Total deaths in my town go up to 16.

According to Italy's ISS extended reports, that country has gone all-in on vaccination.

On Dec. 12, 2021, about 10.55% of the 12+ age population had received a booster shot. Three months later, on March 12, 2022, that percentage was up to 69.14%.

It is also pushing hard into vaccinating 5-11 year olds, even though that age group is at extremely low risk. On Feb. 5, 2022, about 8.23% of that age group had been fully vaccinated. Five weeks later, on March 12, 2022, that percentage was up to 30.15%.

All that vaccinating doesn't seem to have done much to prevent cases. From Dec. 31, 2021, to March 6, 2022, there were, in the 12+ age group, at least 2,563,658 cases in fully vaccinated individuals, and a further 1,242,202 cases in individuals who had received a booster. During that same time period, there were 1,072,998 cases in unvaccinated individuals, and 181,900 cases in partially vaccinated individuals. In percentage terms, that means 21.2% of cases were unvaccinated, 3.6% were partially vaccinated, 50.66% were fully vaccinated, and 24.55% of cases were fully vaccinated with a booster.


Over the most recent one-month period available, Feb. 25 to March 27, cases were as follows for the 12+ age group:

14.46% were unvaccinated (205,764 unvaccinated cases out of 1,422,608 total cases)
. 1.96% were partially vaccinated (27,941 / 1,422,608)
18.94% were fully vaccinated (269,503 / 1,422,608)
64.63% were fully vaccinated with a booster (919,400 / 1,422,608)

Today I talked with a friend I hadn't seen in almost two years. He suffered two strokes shortly after his first covid shot in April 2021, and is now confined to a wheelchair, is legally blind and has spent the last 15 months in a nursing home. He is 48. While in the nursing home, he and all the other residents contracted covid. They were all double vaxxed.
I firmly believe that when the dust settles, and a thorough and objective investigation is finally conducted, it will be found that the covid shots killed and maimed more people than the disease.

Greg Boeser said:

Today I talked with a friend I hadn't seen in almost two years. He suffered two strokes shortly after his first covid shot in April 2021, and is now confined to a wheelchair, is legally blind and has spent the last 15 months in a nursing home. He is 48. While in the nursing home, he and all the other residents contracted covid. They were all double vaxxed.
I firmly believe that when the dust settles, and a thorough and objective investigation is finally conducted, it will be found that the covid shots killed and maimed more people than the disease.

Click to expand...

The logical conclusion, therefore, is that the CDC (and every other Governmental drug agency in the entire world) approved the use of vaccines that are worse than the actual disease? And they did so deliberately, showing either mass incompetence or a HUGE conspiracy against the general public?

Agent Orange.
Thalidomide.
Swine flu vaccine.
Science isn't perfect, and humans at all levels are subject to wishful self-delusion, as well as corruption. Remember, power corrupts, and the greater the organization the greater the effects of that corruption.

Folks - I see this becoming political, please keep opinions and conspiracy theories out of this discussion. Thank you!

Greg Boeser said:

Agent Orange.
Thalidomide.
Swine flu vaccine.
Science isn't perfect, and humans at all levels are subject to wishful self-delusion, as well as corruption. Remember, power corrupts, and the greater the organization the greater the effects of that corruption.

Click to expand...

Of your 3 examples, only one was an actual vaccine. And for that vaccine example, the WHO and others were far less gung-ho about the risk of a swine flu pandemic but the CDC pressed ahead on its own. That's NOT the situation with COVID. There is general consensus across all Governmental-level health bureaux that the COVID vaccines are safe and beneficial.

One organization can make a mistake. Every organization, globally, ALL making the same mistake across multiple vaccines? Sorry...I just don't buy that.

I'm fully vaccinated and now reports say that there is no protection from infection or re-infection. To hell with the CDC. I will do what I've always done since t5his sh+t started. Avoid all people as much as possible, mask up and tell everyone, stay 10 feet away and don't even breathe. Don't even ask what I think about Monkey Pox.