Covid-19 reports

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Minnesota Report for the Week of ??-22 November 2021

Well the s**t has hit the fan, again.

The average new case rate for last week was ~3300/day. This is up from ~2000/day as of 3 weeks ago, and is the highest recorded in Minnesota since November-December of 2020.

Out of the 23,100 new cases, 448 were re-infection cases (ie someone who had tested positive of COVID-19 more than 90 days ago once again tested positive).

We had 924 new hospitalizations last week with 125 newly admitted to ICUs. As of 22 November the current COVID-19 total in hospital was 1109 and the current total in ICU was 324. (The number had increased to 1462 in hospital and 330 in ICU as of 26 November.)

There were 148 deaths last week, but that number is deceptively low as the majority of deaths tend to lag behind hospitalization rates by 2-6 weeks. Fortunately the overall fatality rate of ~1.6% does not appear to be increasing.

~84% of new cases are occurring among the unvaccinated. An unvaccinated person who catches COVID-19 is ~14x more likely to die than if they are vaccinated.

We are beginning to encounter shortages of ICU staff. There have been a significant number of health care workers who have taken leave of absence, quit, or simply refuse to work in the COVID ward anymore. Simple fatigue due to overwork is also coming into play. Due to this shortage, and due to the change in the demographics of those falling ill, Minnesota's Governor has asked for aid from the Federal government. In response, 3x US Air Force medical teams specializing in respiratory trauma have been deployed to Minnesota - 1 team to one of the 3 largest metro area hospitals (HCMC in Minneapolis) and 2 teams to the 2nd largest out-state hospital (St Cloud). Each team is composed of 23 personnel (4 doctors, 14 nurses, 2 respiratory specialists/therapists, and 3 administrators).
 
ThomasP said:
We are beginning to encounter shortages of ICU staff. There have been a significant number of health care workers who have taken leave of absence, quit, or simply refuse to work in the COVID ward anymore. Simple fatigue due to overwork is also coming into play.
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Yup, the same here. They are warning that they don't have the ICU capacity that we had last year anymore. Then, over 1200 people were in ICU. Now they won't be able to accommodate that number anymore.
 
Marcel said:
Yup, the same here. They are warning that they don't have the ICU capacity that we had last year anymore. Then, over 1200 people were in ICU. Now they won't be able to accommodate that number anymore.
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Lets be honest here. That is the biggest thing the "resistance" refuses to understand or grasp. Hell, I think they simply selfishly do not care. When the ICUs are beyond capacity it effects everyone. If your child is hit by a car for example, they may not get the help they need.

At the same, we are all to blame for not increasing our capacities over the last 2 years
 
Today at 17:47 CET i did 3rd Pfizer shot

I'm sorry for miss the monday update but i get a sickness, drop in blood pressure, saturday 4th, and i was out of service
 
Italy report, 13th December, changes and weeks numbers not reported i've missed 2 weeks
cases 5,238,221** deaths 134,929, recovered 4,812,535, active cases 290,757, tests 69,269,958, people tested 38,925,453, vaccines administered 102,029,307*, people "full" vaccinated 45,923,964.
fatality rate 2.6%
mortality rate 2,237 per million
positive rate 13.5%
vaccines on population 1,691,551 per million
people "full" vaccinated 761,377 per million



* it's started the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 18 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 50 millions , 11,605,340 shot did

** i've reported data from the wrong column, i corrected today 20th
 
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Minnesota Report for the week of 12/2-12/8 2021 - just some general stuff

Minnesota has had ~949,000 of its residents test positive for COVID-19 since the epidemic began (in addition ~11,400 haves tested positive twice). This indicates that over 18% of the population has had COVID-19.*

We have had a total of ~9,910 deaths attributed to COVID-19, giving a fatality rate of ~1.03%.

Over the last week Minnesota's hospitalization rate has been significantly higher than in the previous few months - approaching the rate during the worst period of December 2020 - with an average of 155 new hospitalizations per day. Overall, ~20% of hospitalizations have resulted in admission to ICUs.

Although we have had a few cases of the Omicron variant in the last 2 weeks, the Delta variant is still accounting for ~98% of new cases.

For those who are fully vaccinated, the 'break-through' infection rate appears to be running at ~0.2%.**

~84% of new cases are still occurring among the unvaccinated (the unvaccinated account for ~27% of Minnesota's population). An unvaccinated person who catches COVID-19 is ~14x more likely on average to die than vaccinated person.*** The hospitalization rates of unvaccinated vs vaccinated appear to be in the same approximate ratios.

*The true number of people who have contracted COVID-19 is unknown due to many cases not having serious symptoms and hence no test being performed. The epidemiologists estimate that the number of cases is probably about 1.8-2x the confirmed test value, the majority of the undetected among the under 50 age group.

**A 'break-through' case occurs when a fully vaccinated person contracts COVID-19 in spite of being vaccinated.

***An unvaccinated person age 65+ is ~17x more likely to die, while someone unvaccinated age 50-65 is ~12.5x more likely to die.
 
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ThomasP said:
Minnesota Report for the week of 12/2-12/8 2021 - just some general stuff

Minnesota has had ~949,000 of its residents test positive for COVID-19 since the epidemic began (in addition ~11,400 haves tested positive twice). This indicates that over 18% of the population has had COVID-19.*

We have had a total of ~9,910 deaths attributed to COVID-19, giving a fatality rate of ~1.03%.

Over the last week Minnesota's hospitalization rate has been significantly higher than in the previous few months - approaching the rate during the worst period of December 2020 - with an average of 155 new hospitalizations per day. Overall, ~20% of hospitalizations have resulted in admission to ICUs.

Although we have had a few cases of the Omicron variant in the last 2 weeks, the Delta variant is still accounting for ~98% of new cases.

For those who are fully vaccinated, the 'break-through' infection rate appears to be running at ~0.2%.**

~84% of new cases are still occurring among the unvaccinated (the unvaccinated account for ~27% of Minnesota's population). An unvaccinated person who catches COVID-19 is ~14x more likely on average to die than vaccinated person.*** The hospitalization rates of unvaccinated vs vaccinated appear to be in the same approximate ratios.

*The true number of people who have contracted COVID-19 is unknown due to many cases not having serious symptoms and hence no test being performed. The epidemiologists estimate that the number of cases is probably about 1.8-2x the confirmed test value, the majority of the undetected among the under age of 50.

**A 'break-through' case occurs when a fully vaccinated person contracts COVID-19 in spite of being vaccinated.

***An unvaccinated person age 65+ is ~17x more likely to die, while someone unvaccinated age 50-65 is ~12.5x more likely to die.
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So, if we are at 18% confirmed cases, and the estimated case rate is double that, (16-18%) and over75% of people are vaccinated aren't we nearing herd immunity?
 
World weekly report:
This week Eastern Europe is the epicenter for the disease, with Hungary getting absolutely hammered 129 deaths per million this week. Other Eastern European countries are seeing death rates in the 90s per million. Germany is 33 per million. Netherlands is 24 per million. USA is 24 per million. France is 14 per million. UK is 13 per million. Italy is 11 per million.
Spain 7 per million. Iran 7 per million
Most of Africa is around 2 per million.

Data from COVID-19 Weekly Trends by Country - Worldometer
 
A couple of items of possible interest re the nature of COVID-19, and applicable to the "herd immunity" concept.

The precursor Corona virus strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (which causes the disease called COVID-19) were found in 2013 in the cave complexes in the Wuhan region. There is a report in the NIH archives, published in 2016 IIRC, mentioning the finding of the variant(s) of Corona virus and its companion disease in the people living in the surrounding villages. While the virus was a precursor variant of the current SARS-CoV-2, it was no more dangerous than a bad cold at the time. It mutated/changed into the far more dangerous SARS-CoV-2 Alpha strain sometime after that.

Many of the virus caused "common cold" illnesses are due to a Corona virus variant. The "common cold" Corona virus mutates easily and has been around for a long time, since the mid-1800s at least, maybe earlier. There is currently no practical way to achieve "herd immunity" vs this type of disease with all its current variants and continuing variations, unless it stops mutating. In the same sense, there is no practical way to achieve "herd immunity" vs the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants as long as it keeps mutating at a (relatively) high rate.

However, it is very possible to develop a "herd resistance" - this is what happened subsequent to the 1918 influenza epidemic, and this is the reason that the 1918 influenza virus was more deadly in the under-60 age group than in the over-60 age group. There had been a previous epidemic of an earlier variant of the 1918 influenza virus in the 1860s, and the people who were alive then developed a "herd resistance" to the deadlier effects of the virus. The over-60 age group still caught the 1918 influenza variant - it had mutated enough that any immunity they had developed from the 1860s variant did not apply - but they simply did not get as sick for the most part.

As things appear to be progressing, large scale vaccination's primary benefit(s) will be in the area of developing "herd resistance". Anyone who catches COVID-19 and survives will be less likely (in large part) to suffer the more serious effects (including death) of subsequent variants. Since, as it has been shown/proven, a vaccinated person is much less likely to require hospitalization, ICU care, and/or die, the vaccinated person should have a significant advantage in the "herd resistance" area.

The long term benefits of "herd resistance" vs the more serious aspects of the COVID-19 illness are huge, both to society as a whole and to the individual.

If we had gotten our s**t together sooner we might have been able to achieve "herd immunity" - I doubt it (due to the rapid mutation rate) but maybe. Since we are apparently not able to achieve more or less universal vaccination early on, it is unlikely that "herd immunity" can be achieved.
 
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Things are going again.

I had a dose of covid and don't want seconds.

So getting a bit gun shy.

So I be in my room. I was supposed to be doing stuff this weekend but that's all gone up the chimney.

So I be hibernating.
 
Italy report, 20th December, weekly monday to monday changes
cases 5,405,360, +167,139, deaths 135,778, +849, recovered 4,899,879, +87,344, active cases 369,703, +78,946, tests 70,598,903, +1,328,945, people tested 39,537,534, +612,081, vaccines administered 106,049,233*, +4,019,926, people "full" vaccinated 46,105,949, +181,985.
fatality rate 2.5% (-0.1)
mortality rate 2,251 per million (+14)
positive rate 13.7% (+0.2)
vaccines on population 1,758,198 per million (+66,647)
people "full" vaccinated 764,394 per million (+3,017)
test rate this week 22,033 per million
positive rate this week 27.3%
new case rate this week 2,771 per million
new vaccines this week 66,647 per million
people "full" vaccinated this week 3,017 per million

* it's started the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 18 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably around 50 millions , 15,153,000 shot did. It's started also the vaccination for the 5-11 age children
 
Got my booster last Friday. Started feeling crappy Friday night. By Saturday night was running a slight temperature, really felt like crap. Some over the counter meds and later on a little whisky and tea, knocked me out for a while. Woke up sweating, fever gone but I slept funky so my back was sore. Today I'm almost back to normal.

Despite the self torture, no regrets.
 
Italy report, 27th December, weekly monday to monday changes
cases 5,678,112, +272,752, deaths 136,753, +975, recovered 5,003,855, +103,976, active cases 537,504, +167,801, tests 72,087,933, +1,489,030, people tested 40,327,460, +789,926, vaccines administered 108,684,097*, +2,634,864, people "full" vaccinated 46,246,099, +140,140.
fatality rate 2.4% (-0.1)
mortality rate 2,267 per million (+16)
positive rate 14.1% (+0.4)
vaccines on population 1,801,882 per million (+43,684)
people "full" vaccinated 766,717 per million (+2,323)
test rate this week 24,687 per million (+2,654)
positive rate this week 34.5% (+7.2)
new case rate this week 4,522 per million (+1,751)
new vaccines this week 43,684 per million (-22,963)
people "full" vaccinated this week 2,323 per million (-694)

* it's started the 3rd (2nd for the J&J but with a MRNA vaccine) shot campaign ,all the over 16 are eligible, atm idk the number of eligible population for the booster but probably over 50 millions , 17,441,386 shot did (+2,288,386)
 
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