Earhart's Plane Found?!

[Robert Porter]

Dang it! That's twice someone on this forum blabbed about my secret hiding place for my 1:1 stash! Now I am going to have to make room next to the Grail Cup!

 

[buffnut453]

The 3 photographs on p.14 of this thread (posts #276 and #277) appear to be of 3 different vessels. The images posted by Mike showing what is alleged to be Earhart show a vessel with 2 masts, but the rear mast is close to the main superstructure. By comparison, Shinpachi's photo shows a vessel with the rear mast well aft of the superstructure. Now to the other pic allegedly of Koshu Maru at Post #276 which shows a vessel where the sides of the hull curve down from the superstructure to the lower deck whereas the "Earhart" photo is squared-off in the same area. Also, #276 has a flag staff at the front of the poop deck while on the "Earhart" photo the flag staff at the aft end of the poop deck.

If the scans are at all representative of the quality of the original image, then you'd have a really, REALLY hard time confirming that the person identified as Earhart is (a) female or (b) Caucasian. Also, if the image analyst confirmed body proportions of both Earhart and Noonan, where's Noonan on the photo?

The "aircraft" could equally be a vessel behind the "Koshu Maru" or any number of other items.

Sorry but my 20 years as an image analyst raises a whole heap of questions about these images that just don't jive. It truly feels like people are situating the appreciation here and seeing what they want to see.

 

[mikewint]

Buff, If you look at my original post #271, Noonan is the first red arrow to the far left. Facial recognition gave a very close match as you can see at least some of his face, i.e. the "Widows Peak" hair line, prominent nose, eye brow ridge, etc. In addition they did an overlay of his photo onto the dock photo and the match was very very close. There is less visible of the "Earhart" figure so the match is by body -type which is much less definitive.
So until DNA and or aircraft parts with serial numbers are found it all remains speculative though along with all of the "witness" testimony, IMHO, closer to possible than not.

 

[buffnut453]

I can't think of a facial recognition algorithm out there that could make a positive ID of Noonan from that photo. You can't even see the entire face while the nose is very indistinct. It's even hard to tell which direction the face is pointing. If it's pointing towards the camera, then the so-called widow's peak is on the wrong side of his head and the hairstyle is wrong. People are definitely seeing what they want to see here and not looking objectively at the image.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Sorry Mike - this is another conspiracy theory that is grasping at straws. I've seen grassy knoll photos clearer than those.

Again some inconvenient points.

1. The largest Japanese garrison was hundreds of miles away from where they went missing.
2. During this period, relations between Japan and the US were good.
3. There is no plausible reason why the Japanese would imprison these two people.
4. Sketchy witness testimony.
5. The item on the barge could be anything.

But agree with your statement "until DNA and or aircraft parts with serial numbers are found it all remains speculative."

 

[buffnut453]

Here's a less contrasty version of the image courtesy of the Daily Mail:

This clearly shows that "Noonan" is facing the camera and the widow's peak is on the right side of his head, whereas the photo Mikewint posted of Noonan shows the parting was on the left of his scalp.

Also, look at the position of the mast on the "Koshu Maru" which doesn't match the photo Shinpachi posted. The so-called aircraft wreckage could easily be a vessel similar to the ones we're seeing in the left foreground, just partially obscured by the main ship and other dark stuff that, frankly, can't be positively identified. If, as the "experts contest, the aircraft wreckage is being towed on a barge, where did the barge come from? If Noonan and Earhart crashed onto a deserted island, did Koshu Maru just happen to have a barge tagging along for the ride? Or was the wreckage transferred to the barge at Jaluit...which, given this photo, would have been more readily identified by SOMEONE.

Finally, we have to ask why Earhart and Noonan would be allowed off the Koshu Maru if the Japanese were holding Noonan and Earhart as bargaining chips? Bear in mind this is 1937, some 4 years before Pearl Harbor and well before tensions between the US and Japan escalated. What would be the purpose of Japan holding onto the 2 pilots and not telling anyone? Surely it would be in their best interest to show what good global citizens they were being?

Sorry to be a nattering naybob of negativism but this whole conspiracy theory just doesn't add up for me.

 

[buffnut453]

According to the Daily Mail (yeah, I know...hardly the most reputable of news sources but still better than National Enquirer), the photo actually comes from a series of pics taken in 1940 and not in 1937 as initially claimed.

Here's the article for those who want to peruse:

Photo 'showing Amelia Earhart' is not the US aviator | Daily Mail Online

 

[CATCH 22]

This clearly shows that "Noonan" is facing the camera and the widow's peak is on the right side of his head, whereas the photo Mikewint posted of Noonan shows the parting was on the left of his scalp.

Buffnut, "widow's peak" is the hair triangle in the middle, not the bald area! My "widow's peak" e.g. is ca. 20% of Noonan's.
But for what you say, in his photos one can see bald areas on both sides of his forehead.

BTW one don't need to be bald to have a "widow's peak".

 

[buffnut453]

Fair enough...but the photo could simply be showing a male with a parting on the right side of his head. We can't see the entire head so there's a lot of speculating going on here.

 

[Shinpachi]

Mike told me Fukiko Aoki is a wife of American writer Pete Hamill.
This is his testimony about his New York Post days.

Paul Sann, Pete Hamill's mentor in New York Post, gave him a motto a journalist could live by in 1960.
"If you've got the story, tell it. If you don't have the story, write it."

Data source: AT HOME WITH: Pete Hamill; On Background

This would be a real nature of journalism.

 

[CATCH 22]

Fair enough...but the photo could simply be showing a male with a parting on the right side of his head. We can't see the entire head so there's a lot of speculating going on here.

Could be anybody - I'm not saying at all this is Noonan. Lookalikes in old photos are very common. Especially if one's looking for them.

 

[mikewint]

2. During this period, relations between Japan and the US were good.

First to Buff:
wid·ow's peak noun
a V-shaped growth of hair toward the center of the forehead, especially one left by a receding hairline in a man.

Joe, U.S. / Japanese relations began to sour beginning in 1915, when Japan issued its so-called "Twenty-One Demands" on China. These demands, presented as an ultimatum to the Chinese government, would have amounted to giving Japan a privileged status in certain parts of the country. This was in direct conflict with the stated policy of the United States toward China—the famous "Open Door," in which all countries were to respect Chinese sovereignty and enjoy equal access to Chinese trade.

The second blow was the economic problems of Japan in the late 1920s, made worse by the Great Depression which swept the industrialized world in the early 1930s. As an island country with few natural resources, Japan was dependent on international trade, which was disrupted by the economic crisis. Moreover, Japan was overpopulated, but other countries—most importantly the United States—closed the door to Japanese emigrants. Increasingly Japan's military leaders became convinced that only through domination of China could they solve their country's problems

Blow three came when on 18 September 1931, when Lt. Suemori Kawamoto detonated a small quantity of dynamite close to a railway line owned by Japan's South Manchuria Railway near Shenyang. The explosion was so weak that it failed to destroy the track and a train passed over it minutes later, but the Imperial Japanese Army accused Chinese dissidents of the act and responded with an attack on the Chinese garrison and occupation of the town. The League of Nations, at China's request, immediately ordered the Japanese army to withdraw. Japan's delegates at the League's headquarters in Geneva, agreed to this demand and blamed the event on army "hot-heads".
The Japanese government in Tokyo also agreed to this demand. However, the army did not listen and it launched a full-scale invasion of Manchuria and by the end of 1931, it had occupied the whole of the province. The civilian government had clearly lost control of the army, and the League's position was that it would deal with the government of the aggressor nation. But the Japanese civilian government had no control over the army which was in charge of the invasion.

At the outset, U.S. officials viewed developments in China with ambivalence. On the one hand, they opposed Japanese incursions into northeast China and the rise of Japanese militarism in the area, in part because of their sense of a longstanding friendship with China. On the other hand, most U.S. officials believed that it had no vital interests in China worth going to war over with Japan. Moreover, the domestic conflict between Chinese Nationalists and Communists left U.S. policymakers uncertain of success in aiding such an internally divided nation. As a result, few U.S. officials recommended taking a strong stance prior to 1937, and so the United States did little to help China for fear of provoking Japan.

Pause here to note that Earhart left New Guinea On the morning of 2 July 1937. Twenty hours later (still 2 July as she had crossed the Dateline) she was missing

Blow four: U.S. likelihood of providing aid to China increased after July 7, 1937, when Chinese and Japanese forces clashed on the Marco Polo Bridge near Beijing, throwing the two nations into a full-scale war. As the United States watched Japanese forces sweep down the coast and then into the capital of Nanjing, popular opinion swung firmly in favor of the Chinese. Tensions with Japan rose when on 12 December 1937, the Japanese Army bombed the U.S.S. Panay as it evacuated American citizens from Nanjing, killing three. The U.S. Government, however, continued to avoid conflict and accepted an apology and indemnity from the Japanese. An uneasy truce held between the two nations and the United States adopted a policy of a refusing to recognize Japanese conquests, limited economic sanctions against Japan, and equally limited military and economic assistance for China.
Nevertheless, the Japanese bitterly resented even these halfway measures, and when their war against China bogged down in 1939 they blamed outside interference for the stubborn refusal of the Chinese to submit to their terms. They sought a way to prevent foreign aid from reaching China, and to replace the foreign resources that they could no longer acquire due to American economic sanctions.

After concluding an alliance with Germany in July 1940, Japan pressured the French government into allowing Japanese troops to occupy the northern part of French Indochina. In the following year Japanese forces occupied the entire country.

The final Blow: The U.S. government met this latest series of aggressive moves with a steadily escalating campaign of economic sanctions, so that by late summer of 1941 Japan was no longer able to purchase any materials from the United States. This was a tremendous blow for many reasons, but particularly because Japan was almost completely dependent upon U.S. imports for its supply of oil. The U.S. was strangling Japanese industry and its war machine, a humiliation that no Japanese leader would accept.

As early as 1927, war games at the Japanese Navy War College included an examination of a carrier raid against Pearl Harbor. The following year, a certain Captain Yamamoto lectured on the same topic. By the time the United States moved the Pacific Fleet from the West Coast to Pearl Harbor in May 1940, Yamamoto was already exploring how to execute such a bold operation. According to the chief of staff of the Combined Fleet, Vice Admiral Fukudome Shigeru, Yamamoto first discussed an attack on Pearl Harbor in March or April 1940. After the completion of the Combined Fleet's annual maneuvers in the fall of 1940, Yamamoto told Fukudome to direct Rear Admiral Onishi Takijiro to study a Pearl Harbor attack under the utmost secrecy.

 

[buffnut453]

None of that explains why Japan would imprison Earhart and Noonan in 1937. As Joe pointed out, the nearest Japanese military installations were over 400 miles away so the claim that Earhart and Noonan were conducting espionage is fanciful at best. If they were doing espionage, it was at an incredibly low level that could have been done by any member of any ship's crew anywhere in the world. The US didn't start imposing sanctions on Japan until 1938 thus, despite the deterioration in relations, things still hadn't progressed to concrete action by either side at the time Earhart and Noonan disappeared. So why would the Japanese abscond with two world-renowned aviators in 1937? What's the justification?

 

[Airframes]

It's all b*ll*cks -- the photo shows Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers, in between takes for one of the 'road' movies, on the back lot somewhere in 'dream land' ..... .....

 

[FLYBOYJ]

"Tensions with Japan rose when on 12 December 1937, the Japanese Army bombed the U.S.S. Panay as it evacuated American citizens from Nanjing,"

That's the time everything started going south. Yes, there were times of tensions but this incident occured months after Earhart's disappearance - I mention this several pages ago.

Japan had no strategic interest in this part of the world during this time. Had Earhart disappeared over occupied China, the hostage theory would be more plausible. Sorry, this doesn't add up and i think its a case of conspiracy theorists trying to piecemeal evidence to support their argument.

 

[Robert Porter]

Lets not forget, cargo ships from the US arrived in port in Japan as late as December 9th, 1941. They were a trading partner literally up until the attack on Dec 7. There was a real feeling that continued engagement with the government of Japan and stern warnings and trade tactics would help the civilian government to eventually regain control of the Army. Nothing I am aware of in the lead up to the war would have benefitted Japan if they took Earhart hostage. In fact in any scenario that makes sense if they actually did do that they would likely have had a show trial and shown whatever evidence they felt supported their case for Earhart being a spy. No scenario to capture them in secret makes sense.

 

[Graeme]

To my eyes it looks like a jet aircraft in the background?
Time travel.....

The Final Countdown (1980) - IMDb

 

[Shinpachi]

This is probably independent corroboration of the Koshu's status. Fukiko Aoki, Japanese author, writes inSearching for Amelia Earhart in 1984 that there were two Japanese ships in the area. The "battleship Koshu" and the carrier Kamoi. According to her, she reviewed the logs of the Koshu which reflect the dates and places reported. The Koshu left Jaluit on 19 Jul 37 headed to Saipan.

Log of IJN seaplane tender "Kamoi (神威)" with reference code: C11084206500 & C11084206600 at JACAR tells -

On July 2 1937, IJN seaplane tender Kamoi was at Saipan
On July 3, she left Saipan for Isewan (Nagoya, Japan)
July 4 - 9, viewing the islands of Mariana, she cruised to Isewan.
On July 10, Kamoi arrived at Isewan.

Log

Kamoi

 

[Peter Gunn]

While an intriguing photo, I'm not buying. The major issue I've always contended that makes a Japanese conspiracy theory bollocks is motive. The Japanese had none, nada, nothing as far as reasons go to capture, keep secret and then execute Earhart and Noonan.

Conversely, the Japanese had EVERY reason to announce and trumpet from the highest platform that they had found and rescued the famous flyers. Over and over, it's 1937, not 1941, sure tensions were starting to heat up but just barely and not enough for this scenario to play out. In fact, if the Japanese had rescued Earhart and Noonan, don't you think that would have benefited U.S. - Japan relations?

 

[Shinpachi]

Sorry again but let me obey my first impression ,
I think this ship in question on the right is a German cargo ship which was built by Howaldts-Werke in Kiel in the early 1900's. German ships in the Pacific were captured by the Great Britain/Commonwealth and Japan after the ww1 was over as you may know well.

The picture looks having been taken during 1906-1914 when Germany still occupied the area because the vessel's painting scheme does not show any military purposes yet. People in the center look Germans with local people, of course.

To make my guess clearer, here are couple of such German vessels, namely Signal, which was given to Australia as Bulga and another one namely Michael Jabsen which was given to Japan in 1915. To my surprise, Michael Jabsen was renamed "Koshu (膠州)" later.
There was one more Koshu, not Koshu Maru, which I did not know.

Bulga

Koshu (膠州)