Status of Kwantung Army was equal to IJA and IJN.
It did not necessarily have to consult with Tokyo each time but had to report what it did afterwards without delay.
So, they had thought that anything could be allowed if it was successful.
Earhart's Plane Found?!
- Thread starter FLYBOYJ
- Start date
Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
Status of Kwantung Army was equal to IJA and IJN.
It did not necessarily have to consult with Tokyo each time but had to report what it did afterwards without delay.
So, they had thought that anything could be allowed if it was successful.
wuzak
Captain
Looking at the image at a larger scale, it looks like where the horizon appears to change there is some land.
Also, "Noonan's" body seems to be twisted. He appears to be holding some sort of pole with a banner on the top with his right hand, his left shoulder rotated away from the camera and his left hand appears to be on his hip, or maybe it is holding the pole too. Hard to tell.
He also has shadows of his arms on his body. Those of you who are experienced in photo analysis might be able to say if the shadows are consistent.
http://cdn.history.com/sites/2/2017/07/DockPhoto.jpg
mikewint
Captain
Exactly what I had stated in an earlier post. The military was in charge of the government and did not answer to civilian authority. And the dreaded Kenpeitai made sure no one showed any opposition
Buff, I see the same things that you do but drawn a opposite conclusion. The "captain" that initially "rescued" Earhart and Noonan is/was in many/most accounts a Japanese fisherman. He was in effect a true rescuer and his simple fishing boat had no radio. There are differing accounts as to where the fisherman took Earhart and Noonan but eventually they are in the hands of Japanese authorities on Jaluit and not exactly prisoners but more like House Arrest. It's after all a pier and neither Earhart or Noonan have any inkling of what is in store for them so they're relaxed expecting to be cleared and returned. On board the Koshu it's much the same, it's a ship on the ocean where are they going to go. There true status become apparent at the Kenpeitai Headquarters in Susupe, Saipan and it is too late to do anything.
You mention witnesses, there are literally hundreds of them so many in fact that the Republic of the Marshall Islands issued stamps portraying the crash, Earhart and Noonan on the beach, and the Koshu taking them and their plane to Saipan. Over 200 people claim to have seen her, nursed her, fed her, washed her clothes when she got to Saipan, for example, "I saw her in the back of a truck in May 1944 being transported by soldiers. I had never seen a white woman in my life, and it's not the kind of thing you forget, even at age 12 - a woman dressed like a man with her arms bound and a blindfold. She was parked in front of me for 30 minutes. My brother was next to me."
As to what if anything they saw or photographed I repeat again that it matters not. The Japanese were VERY secretive about what was going on in their Mandate so what matters is that the Japanese thought they had seen/photographed something of note. Denials merely fueled the disbelief.
Buff, I see the same things that you do but drawn a opposite conclusion. The "captain" that initially "rescued" Earhart and Noonan is/was in many/most accounts a Japanese fisherman. He was in effect a true rescuer and his simple fishing boat had no radio. There are differing accounts as to where the fisherman took Earhart and Noonan but eventually they are in the hands of Japanese authorities on Jaluit and not exactly prisoners but more like House Arrest. It's after all a pier and neither Earhart or Noonan have any inkling of what is in store for them so they're relaxed expecting to be cleared and returned. On board the Koshu it's much the same, it's a ship on the ocean where are they going to go. There true status become apparent at the Kenpeitai Headquarters in Susupe, Saipan and it is too late to do anything.
You mention witnesses, there are literally hundreds of them so many in fact that the Republic of the Marshall Islands issued stamps portraying the crash, Earhart and Noonan on the beach, and the Koshu taking them and their plane to Saipan. Over 200 people claim to have seen her, nursed her, fed her, washed her clothes when she got to Saipan, for example, "I saw her in the back of a truck in May 1944 being transported by soldiers. I had never seen a white woman in my life, and it's not the kind of thing you forget, even at age 12 - a woman dressed like a man with her arms bound and a blindfold. She was parked in front of me for 30 minutes. My brother was next to me."
As to what if anything they saw or photographed I repeat again that it matters not. The Japanese were VERY secretive about what was going on in their Mandate so what matters is that the Japanese thought they had seen/photographed something of note. Denials merely fueled the disbelief.
So, when were those souvenir stamps issued ?
Wasn't it after some journalists wrote the story ?
buffnut453
Captain
Mike,
Kosho is not a trawler so we're talking about a different vessel that carried the 2 pilots to Jaluit and then transferred them to Kosho? If so, how did the wreckage get to Jaluit?
Irrespective, as soon as the pair were onboard the Kosho they were on a vessel that had radio contact with the outside world. Again, why just detain them and not expose them as being spies? You're not answering the fundamental question of WHY they would be killed by the Japanese instead of being exposed on the world stage to the embarrassment of the US Government?
Shinpachi makes a good point about how many of these eyewitness accounts have come out since the topic became a noted conspiracy theory? This has all the hallmarks of something that can never be unproven because the "evidence" is nothing more than hearsay and may not be reliable.
If you can come up with a cogent reason for exactly WHY the Japanese would murder 2 US civilians in 1937 when the US didn't impose sanctions until 1938? Give me any shred of a reasonable reason and I'll start to pay more attention...like every good cop show, in order to convict there must be a MOTIVE. Until that happens, I'm going to remain hugely skeptical of the so-called evidence.
Cheers,
Mark
Kosho is not a trawler so we're talking about a different vessel that carried the 2 pilots to Jaluit and then transferred them to Kosho? If so, how did the wreckage get to Jaluit?
Irrespective, as soon as the pair were onboard the Kosho they were on a vessel that had radio contact with the outside world. Again, why just detain them and not expose them as being spies? You're not answering the fundamental question of WHY they would be killed by the Japanese instead of being exposed on the world stage to the embarrassment of the US Government?
Shinpachi makes a good point about how many of these eyewitness accounts have come out since the topic became a noted conspiracy theory? This has all the hallmarks of something that can never be unproven because the "evidence" is nothing more than hearsay and may not be reliable.
If you can come up with a cogent reason for exactly WHY the Japanese would murder 2 US civilians in 1937 when the US didn't impose sanctions until 1938? Give me any shred of a reasonable reason and I'll start to pay more attention...like every good cop show, in order to convict there must be a MOTIVE. Until that happens, I'm going to remain hugely skeptical of the so-called evidence.
Cheers,
Mark
Robert Porter
Senior Master Sergeant
Sorry but I still don't see it, Nimitz and the others, there is not one shred of substantiation that any of that was said by any of them, it is a perfect storm of conspiracy theory at work. That many folks of that high a rank could not have kept the information from their respective staff's and family. Just does not happen, especially where the US had nothing to lose if they were spies, and less so if they were not.
That's my interpretation as well Wuzak. But I can't figure if I'm seeing a flexed right knee or canvass awning belonging to that boat?? Is that difference in the sea level a land mass in the background??
Then again - I'm due for a Specsavers visit.
mikewint
Captain
Graeme beautiful job on the photo unfortunately copy of a copy. Be nice to have the original negative. The slightly different shadings on the horizon may indeed show "something on the water? And the dark shape above Noonan's? left belt?
Robert, that is the exact goal of "Plausible Deniability". Men like Nimitz had a LOT to loose by coming out against official government policy so they drop tidbits and hope someone will take up the cause. As to "what was there to loose" re-read the Swanson quote:
This is a powder keg," replied Swanson. "Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I'm not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse."
Remember the US was walking a tightrope with Japan still hoping to avoid an all-out war.
Buff (Mark), I am still somewhat skeptical myself but the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence are hard (for me at least) to totally discount. I am also very much aware of FDR's more realistic appraisal of Japanese motives and intent and his use of civilian resources to avoid a military tie-in. Are you aware of FDR's "Astor Spy Ring"?
Vincent Astor's "job" was forwarding civilian gathered intelligence directly to FDR at least as early as 1933. Most early data concerned general conditions in the Caribbean and Panama Canal Zone, but in 1936 Fred Dearing wrote Roosevelt from his post in Peru that Astor planned to cruise off the Pacific coast of Latin America. "I understand that Vincent Astor is going back to the Galapagos Islands again with a few visitors, but I expect he might pick up some scraps of information for you while he is there." Though anxious to have Astor check rumors that Japanese ships were surveying the Galapagos to locate a site for an advanced base, Roosevelt was more concerned to learn what the Japanese were doing on their far distant islands in the South Pacific held since World War I as League of Nations mandates. Conveniently, Astor and Kermit Roosevelt planned a scientific expedition to the Marshall Islands as a cover for other investigations.
Astor made elaborate preparations, including establishment of a recognition code word for the Nourmahal, a 41 foot yacht built for multi-millionaire Astor in 1928 at Krupp Iron Works in Kiel, Germany, to tie in with the United States Navy radio network and a briefing by Director of Naval Intelligence Ralston S. Holmes. "Admiral Holmes (O.N.I.) told me he believed the Japs had a lot of Radio stations in the islands," Astor advised FDR. "I should think that it would be interesting to know their exact location," and "Nourmahal has a Radio Direction Finder."
In early 1938 Astor sent a lengthy report to the president reviewing his voyage with Kermit Roosevelt to the South Pacific. "On my return, I shall of course make a proper report to O.N.I.," he explained. "However in the remote possibility of trouble between now and then, you might consider the following conclusions of mine concerning the Marshall Islands worth forwarding to Naval Operations & O.N.I." In his message to the president, Astor admitted that when the Japanese refused to grant permission to land he had become a bit of a coward and had left the area. However, through intercepted radio messages and interviews with British intelligence people on the nearby Gilbert and Ellice Islands he had gathered some important data. Astor observed that Eniwetok, not Jaluit or Wotje, seemed to be the principal Japanese naval base, since large docks, fuel stores and ships had been observed there for several years. Bikini Atoll, Astor confided, abounded in suspicious activity and was off-limits to local natives. In addition, Roosevelt's man had learned that trucks and tractors worked to clear an air strip on Wotje, while six Japanese submarines lurked in a nearby lagoon. Astor performed one valuable service by correcting the common impression in Washington that Japan had fortified the Marshall Islands, insisting that the concrete platforms on one island comprised floors for warehouses not emplacements for guns. "I feel moderately certain that there are none [forts] in the Marshalls," he wrote FDR. The Japanese protested vehemently to the U.S. State Department, and one Japanese press report indicated that the U.S. Navy had sent "warships" into the Marshalls and was forming a task force for an attack. Astor had caused a storm with Japan, but his mission was unknown in America.
However, the Japanese while ostensibly building "civilian" structures had built them to heavier, thicker, stronger standards making them easily convertible to later military usage. The U.S. had long believed that Japan was violating that treaty in the Mandated Islands, but could not prove it. The U.S. had countered on Midway and Wake Islands through cooperation with Pan American airways by building "civilian" air fields there, and now Earhart would become the civilian reason or cover for building a landing strip on Howland. To further disguise the Howland venture, President Roosevelt diverted funds from the civilian Works Progress Administration, an obfuscation tactic he had used several times before.
So IMHO, Earhart and Noonan surviving the crash would answer many post-crash questions like the radio messages heard by many official and un-official radio operators. Were Earhart and Noonan spies in the traditional sense, No, but collecting "White Intelligence" I think Yes. Would this infuriate the Japanese, IMHO, Yes. The Japanese Kenpeitai answered to no one and their brutality well known. Would the Kenpeitai consider this White Intelligence spying? again I think Yes. Earhart and Noonan were already thought of as dead and under torture who knows what Noonan may have confessed to, so execution was the easy way to make the problem "go away".
Unpopular? You bet, to the extreme. One only has to look through the replies to these postings to see how many members, whom I would have expected more of, have resorted to Adpellatus Illudere posts
Shimpachi - the Independent Republic of the Marshall Islands issued the four stamps in 1987 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Amelia Earhart's landing at Mili Atoll and pick-up by the Japanese survey ship Koshu in July 1937. To the Marshallese people the disappearance of Amelia Earhart is no mystery or rumor but a stone cold fact.
Robert, that is the exact goal of "Plausible Deniability". Men like Nimitz had a LOT to loose by coming out against official government policy so they drop tidbits and hope someone will take up the cause. As to "what was there to loose" re-read the Swanson quote:
This is a powder keg," replied Swanson. "Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I'm not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse."
Remember the US was walking a tightrope with Japan still hoping to avoid an all-out war.
Buff (Mark), I am still somewhat skeptical myself but the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence are hard (for me at least) to totally discount. I am also very much aware of FDR's more realistic appraisal of Japanese motives and intent and his use of civilian resources to avoid a military tie-in. Are you aware of FDR's "Astor Spy Ring"?
Vincent Astor's "job" was forwarding civilian gathered intelligence directly to FDR at least as early as 1933. Most early data concerned general conditions in the Caribbean and Panama Canal Zone, but in 1936 Fred Dearing wrote Roosevelt from his post in Peru that Astor planned to cruise off the Pacific coast of Latin America. "I understand that Vincent Astor is going back to the Galapagos Islands again with a few visitors, but I expect he might pick up some scraps of information for you while he is there." Though anxious to have Astor check rumors that Japanese ships were surveying the Galapagos to locate a site for an advanced base, Roosevelt was more concerned to learn what the Japanese were doing on their far distant islands in the South Pacific held since World War I as League of Nations mandates. Conveniently, Astor and Kermit Roosevelt planned a scientific expedition to the Marshall Islands as a cover for other investigations.
Astor made elaborate preparations, including establishment of a recognition code word for the Nourmahal, a 41 foot yacht built for multi-millionaire Astor in 1928 at Krupp Iron Works in Kiel, Germany, to tie in with the United States Navy radio network and a briefing by Director of Naval Intelligence Ralston S. Holmes. "Admiral Holmes (O.N.I.) told me he believed the Japs had a lot of Radio stations in the islands," Astor advised FDR. "I should think that it would be interesting to know their exact location," and "Nourmahal has a Radio Direction Finder."
In early 1938 Astor sent a lengthy report to the president reviewing his voyage with Kermit Roosevelt to the South Pacific. "On my return, I shall of course make a proper report to O.N.I.," he explained. "However in the remote possibility of trouble between now and then, you might consider the following conclusions of mine concerning the Marshall Islands worth forwarding to Naval Operations & O.N.I." In his message to the president, Astor admitted that when the Japanese refused to grant permission to land he had become a bit of a coward and had left the area. However, through intercepted radio messages and interviews with British intelligence people on the nearby Gilbert and Ellice Islands he had gathered some important data. Astor observed that Eniwetok, not Jaluit or Wotje, seemed to be the principal Japanese naval base, since large docks, fuel stores and ships had been observed there for several years. Bikini Atoll, Astor confided, abounded in suspicious activity and was off-limits to local natives. In addition, Roosevelt's man had learned that trucks and tractors worked to clear an air strip on Wotje, while six Japanese submarines lurked in a nearby lagoon. Astor performed one valuable service by correcting the common impression in Washington that Japan had fortified the Marshall Islands, insisting that the concrete platforms on one island comprised floors for warehouses not emplacements for guns. "I feel moderately certain that there are none [forts] in the Marshalls," he wrote FDR. The Japanese protested vehemently to the U.S. State Department, and one Japanese press report indicated that the U.S. Navy had sent "warships" into the Marshalls and was forming a task force for an attack. Astor had caused a storm with Japan, but his mission was unknown in America.
However, the Japanese while ostensibly building "civilian" structures had built them to heavier, thicker, stronger standards making them easily convertible to later military usage. The U.S. had long believed that Japan was violating that treaty in the Mandated Islands, but could not prove it. The U.S. had countered on Midway and Wake Islands through cooperation with Pan American airways by building "civilian" air fields there, and now Earhart would become the civilian reason or cover for building a landing strip on Howland. To further disguise the Howland venture, President Roosevelt diverted funds from the civilian Works Progress Administration, an obfuscation tactic he had used several times before.
So IMHO, Earhart and Noonan surviving the crash would answer many post-crash questions like the radio messages heard by many official and un-official radio operators. Were Earhart and Noonan spies in the traditional sense, No, but collecting "White Intelligence" I think Yes. Would this infuriate the Japanese, IMHO, Yes. The Japanese Kenpeitai answered to no one and their brutality well known. Would the Kenpeitai consider this White Intelligence spying? again I think Yes. Earhart and Noonan were already thought of as dead and under torture who knows what Noonan may have confessed to, so execution was the easy way to make the problem "go away".
Unpopular? You bet, to the extreme. One only has to look through the replies to these postings to see how many members, whom I would have expected more of, have resorted to Adpellatus Illudere posts
Shimpachi - the Independent Republic of the Marshall Islands issued the four stamps in 1987 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Amelia Earhart's landing at Mili Atoll and pick-up by the Japanese survey ship Koshu in July 1937. To the Marshallese people the disappearance of Amelia Earhart is no mystery or rumor but a stone cold fact.
fubar57
General
Robert Porter
Senior Master Sergeant
I understand Plausible Deniability but also understand that the more people that know a secret the faster it no longer becomes a secret. And you keep quoting the same nutcases each time attributing remarks supposedly made to them by numerous high ranking people. Sorry but common sense would tell anyone that if that many people knew about this there would be many more sources confirming these attributed statements. And Nimitz certainly had MANY ways to expose such a plot without exposing himself if he wanted to do so, it happens all the time. Most "leaks" are not truly people talking out of turn, they are engineered to disclose information that a party wants to disclose without being seen as the one doing so. This tactic has been in use as far back as recorded history goes. There is no need to play the drop hints games alluded to.
Yes, Aoki revised her "Looking for Amelia" in 1995 in order to introduce the TIGHAR as another possibility.
mikewint
Captain
Geo, The Daily Beast, not exactly the most accurate news source. OK let's review:
However, in 1982 a Japanese author and journalist, Fukiko Aoki, published a book in Japanese, Looking for Amelia.
Go back over the posts in this thread to see what Shinpachi thinks of her
As Aoki's research indicates, the assumption that the Japanese military was under orders to arrest and quietly kill
Never at any time was this even hinted at. Again re-read all posts. The Kenpeitai were responsible for the imprisonment and execution on their own initiative.
a minor clash between Japanese and Chinese troops near Beijing suddenly turned into all-out war between the two nations.
Minor? Probably not to the 500 Chinese troops that were killed by the Japanese during their invasion of Mukden
Near? Actually 690km but they actually meant the Chinese garrison of Beidaying (well they both start with Bei) only 800 m distant
Suddenly turned into? Believing that a conflict in Manchuria would be in the best interests of Japan, and acting in the spirit of the Japanese concept of gekokujō (overthrowing ones superiors), Kwantung Army Colonel Seishirō Itagaki and Lieutenant Colonel Kanji Ishiwara independently devised a plan to prompt Japan to invade Manchuria by provoking an incident from Chinese forces stationed nearby. However, after the Japanese Minister of War Jirō Minami dispatched Major General Yoshitsugu Tatekawa to Manchuria for the specific purpose of curbing the insubordination and militarist behavior of the Kwantung Army, Itagaki and Ishiwara knew that they no longer had the luxury of waiting for the Chinese to respond to provocations but had to stage their own. Plans were in place by May 31 and the dynamite set off on Sept 18 1931
Again all this covered in previous posts
Then there is how the Japanese treated Charles Lindbergh
Not germane by any sense. This was 1931 US / Japanese relations were still very good, FDR was not president, The Marshall Island mandate had not yet occurred and Lindberg had not overflown a restricted Japanese territory preparing for a military conflict. Apples and Oranges.
The theory that Earthart crash landed in the Marshall Islands is not supported by the basic rules of geography and navigation. It rests on the idea that, once Earhart realized she had missed a scheduled rendezvous with a U.S. Coast Guard cutter on tiny Howland Island, she reversed direction.
True. Amelia had a fall-back plan. While Noonan was sure he could locate Howland, after all he had been on PanAms Midway and Wake Island flights for years, Earhart had planned to turn back WEST towards the Gilbert Islands if she could not find Howland
way beyond the range of the Electra as it was running low on gas at the end of a long leg from Papua, New Guinea
A repeat of a common error as one author takes from another. Earhart's first intelligible message to Lae, at 2:18 p.m. local time, when she reported, "HEIGHT 7000 FEET SPEED 140 KNOTS" Pilots know, that when you give a position, you report the speed you are making over the ground, or GROUND SPEED, not TRUE AIR SPEED whereas several authors have confused this reporte 140 knots to be Earhart's TRUE AIR SPEED.
The increased ground speed reflected a tailwind component for that period of the flight, a normal condition the Electra might encounter in the intertropical convergence zone where winds tend to vary.
At 5:18 p.m. (0718 GMT), seven hours, eighteen minutes after takeoff, Earhart reported her position as 4.33 south, 159.7 east, at 8,000 feet over cumulus clouds with winds at 23 knots. Please note that no direction is/was given. Most authors claim that Earhart ran out of gas some 20 hours and 32 minutes after she left Lae, New Guinea, however Earhart, maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH and using the power settings provided her by Lockheed, had over 24 hours of flying time ahead of her. When she called in at 1912 GCT, she had flown approximately 2556 miles … at an average ground speed of 133 MPH. Maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH would mean that she had encountered an average head wind of 17 MPH. At 2014 [GMT, or 8:44 a.m. Howland Time], Earhart, in her last message said we are running north and south. At that time it can be reasonably assumed that she departed the Howland Island area and was headed towards the Marshall Islands. She would have had approximately four hours of fuel remaining at this time. Using maximum range true airspeed of 150 MPH (130 knots) and a tail wind of 17 miles per hour, she would have been able to travel some 680 more miles. This issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation by Kennedy is superior to any Lockheed literature. She had the range to reach either the Gilbert Islands, or the lower part of the Marshall Islands
Approaching the question of the Electra's fuel consumption from another angle, we can apply the plane's performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane's climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,100 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion.
Let's back up a bit. Based on the total amount of fuel she had onboard her Lockheed Electra, Fred and Amelia could have flown another four to six hours. Remember if they couldn't find Howland her fallback plan was to turn west and head toward the Gilbert Islands. She was sure she could find a beach, on one of those islands, to land her plane.
Now due to the general winds along their route and considering that Fred could not correct their flight path by a celestial fix most analysts put him as much as 150 miles NORTH of Howland. She didn't find Howland because she was too far north. Remember the compass heading Amelia gave 157/337 that essentially a NW line so following that line northward and then turning west (as she planned to do if she didn't see Howland), the first piece of land she might have seen was Mili Atoll.
To believe this demands two leaps of faith or, more likely, of the imagination. The first is that Earhart managed to land on the atoll and the second is that she did so with such skill that her radio remained able to operate.
Actually, the witnesses to the crash landing reported a broken off right wing with the left being canted upwards. With the left engine/generator intact the radio was usable. The Marshall Island stamp shows the witnesses description of the crashed Electra. The Japanese moved the Electra by using ammunition carts whose remains are still on the island as are gouges in the reef.
TIGAR had it even easier as the reef there is as flat as a pancake and almost dry at low tide. Thus both engines were intact and runable. Earhart was able to transmit until tides/waves/wind pushed the Electra over the reef
They most certainly didn't die in a Japanese prison.
200 eyewitnesses on Saipan will be surprised to hear that
However, in 1982 a Japanese author and journalist, Fukiko Aoki, published a book in Japanese, Looking for Amelia.
Go back over the posts in this thread to see what Shinpachi thinks of her
As Aoki's research indicates, the assumption that the Japanese military was under orders to arrest and quietly kill
Never at any time was this even hinted at. Again re-read all posts. The Kenpeitai were responsible for the imprisonment and execution on their own initiative.
a minor clash between Japanese and Chinese troops near Beijing suddenly turned into all-out war between the two nations.
Minor? Probably not to the 500 Chinese troops that were killed by the Japanese during their invasion of Mukden
Near? Actually 690km but they actually meant the Chinese garrison of Beidaying (well they both start with Bei) only 800 m distant
Suddenly turned into? Believing that a conflict in Manchuria would be in the best interests of Japan, and acting in the spirit of the Japanese concept of gekokujō (overthrowing ones superiors), Kwantung Army Colonel Seishirō Itagaki and Lieutenant Colonel Kanji Ishiwara independently devised a plan to prompt Japan to invade Manchuria by provoking an incident from Chinese forces stationed nearby. However, after the Japanese Minister of War Jirō Minami dispatched Major General Yoshitsugu Tatekawa to Manchuria for the specific purpose of curbing the insubordination and militarist behavior of the Kwantung Army, Itagaki and Ishiwara knew that they no longer had the luxury of waiting for the Chinese to respond to provocations but had to stage their own. Plans were in place by May 31 and the dynamite set off on Sept 18 1931
Again all this covered in previous posts
Then there is how the Japanese treated Charles Lindbergh
Not germane by any sense. This was 1931 US / Japanese relations were still very good, FDR was not president, The Marshall Island mandate had not yet occurred and Lindberg had not overflown a restricted Japanese territory preparing for a military conflict. Apples and Oranges.
The theory that Earthart crash landed in the Marshall Islands is not supported by the basic rules of geography and navigation. It rests on the idea that, once Earhart realized she had missed a scheduled rendezvous with a U.S. Coast Guard cutter on tiny Howland Island, she reversed direction.
True. Amelia had a fall-back plan. While Noonan was sure he could locate Howland, after all he had been on PanAms Midway and Wake Island flights for years, Earhart had planned to turn back WEST towards the Gilbert Islands if she could not find Howland
way beyond the range of the Electra as it was running low on gas at the end of a long leg from Papua, New Guinea
A repeat of a common error as one author takes from another. Earhart's first intelligible message to Lae, at 2:18 p.m. local time, when she reported, "HEIGHT 7000 FEET SPEED 140 KNOTS" Pilots know, that when you give a position, you report the speed you are making over the ground, or GROUND SPEED, not TRUE AIR SPEED whereas several authors have confused this reporte 140 knots to be Earhart's TRUE AIR SPEED.
The increased ground speed reflected a tailwind component for that period of the flight, a normal condition the Electra might encounter in the intertropical convergence zone where winds tend to vary.
At 5:18 p.m. (0718 GMT), seven hours, eighteen minutes after takeoff, Earhart reported her position as 4.33 south, 159.7 east, at 8,000 feet over cumulus clouds with winds at 23 knots. Please note that no direction is/was given. Most authors claim that Earhart ran out of gas some 20 hours and 32 minutes after she left Lae, New Guinea, however Earhart, maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH and using the power settings provided her by Lockheed, had over 24 hours of flying time ahead of her. When she called in at 1912 GCT, she had flown approximately 2556 miles … at an average ground speed of 133 MPH. Maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH would mean that she had encountered an average head wind of 17 MPH. At 2014 [GMT, or 8:44 a.m. Howland Time], Earhart, in her last message said we are running north and south. At that time it can be reasonably assumed that she departed the Howland Island area and was headed towards the Marshall Islands. She would have had approximately four hours of fuel remaining at this time. Using maximum range true airspeed of 150 MPH (130 knots) and a tail wind of 17 miles per hour, she would have been able to travel some 680 more miles. This issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation by Kennedy is superior to any Lockheed literature. She had the range to reach either the Gilbert Islands, or the lower part of the Marshall Islands
Approaching the question of the Electra's fuel consumption from another angle, we can apply the plane's performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane's climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,100 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion.
Let's back up a bit. Based on the total amount of fuel she had onboard her Lockheed Electra, Fred and Amelia could have flown another four to six hours. Remember if they couldn't find Howland her fallback plan was to turn west and head toward the Gilbert Islands. She was sure she could find a beach, on one of those islands, to land her plane.
Now due to the general winds along their route and considering that Fred could not correct their flight path by a celestial fix most analysts put him as much as 150 miles NORTH of Howland. She didn't find Howland because she was too far north. Remember the compass heading Amelia gave 157/337 that essentially a NW line so following that line northward and then turning west (as she planned to do if she didn't see Howland), the first piece of land she might have seen was Mili Atoll.
To believe this demands two leaps of faith or, more likely, of the imagination. The first is that Earhart managed to land on the atoll and the second is that she did so with such skill that her radio remained able to operate.
Actually, the witnesses to the crash landing reported a broken off right wing with the left being canted upwards. With the left engine/generator intact the radio was usable. The Marshall Island stamp shows the witnesses description of the crashed Electra. The Japanese moved the Electra by using ammunition carts whose remains are still on the island as are gouges in the reef.
TIGAR had it even easier as the reef there is as flat as a pancake and almost dry at low tide. Thus both engines were intact and runable. Earhart was able to transmit until tides/waves/wind pushed the Electra over the reef
They most certainly didn't die in a Japanese prison.
200 eyewitnesses on Saipan will be surprised to hear that
fubar57
General
The logbook of the ship is not credible?
mikewint
Captain
For shame Robert, adpellatus illudere, has never been a valid method of arguement
Geo, if you were taking American spies into the hands of the Kenpeitai would you announce it in a log that could at some point be examined? Or would you keep your head on your shoulders and omit the incriminating? Log books written by humans can reflect human mendacity
Last edited:
fubar57
General
And what would be the reason for Lieutenant Sachinao Kouzu to keep quiet years later? If he were to say that they were in fact on the ship that would have been the scoop of the last century
After checking the logs, my impression is that Imperial Japanese Navy was not serious about discovering Earhart and her partner in the huge Pacific Ocean. Japanese ships were busy about their daily routine, after all.
The log of IJN special-service ship Koshu (特務艦 膠州) with reference code: C11083156000 & C11083156100 & C11083156300 & C11083156400 at JACAR tells -
General:
Routine job: Observation of upper air by baloon, sea water (streaming, depth, transparency etc) by instruments, laundry, military exercise, lecture, cleaning, maintenance etc.
Off-time entertainment: movie, show-time etc.
July 2 1937 Palau-Ponape
1745 Recognized Greenwich atoll
July 3 Palau-Ponape
0605 recognized Greenwich atoll
0815-0828 Halt. Rescue exercise using a cutter and a launch.
0831-1353 Delivery of supplies & shift member(s) to observatory on Greenwich atoll
1615 Left atoll
July 6-9 Ponape
Loaded coal and water.
July 10 Ponape-Jaluit
0915-0945 Fire‐fighting exercise
July 14-19 Jaluit
Joined athletic games in the stadium, baseball and party.
July 20-23 Jaluit-Ponape
July 24-27 Ponape
Loaded coal and water. Joined exercise.
July 28-August 10 Ponape-Saipan
August 11-20 Saipan
August 21 Left Saipan for Palau
The log of IJN special-service ship Koshu (特務艦 膠州) with reference code: C11083156000 & C11083156100 & C11083156300 & C11083156400 at JACAR tells -
General:
Routine job: Observation of upper air by baloon, sea water (streaming, depth, transparency etc) by instruments, laundry, military exercise, lecture, cleaning, maintenance etc.
Off-time entertainment: movie, show-time etc.
July 2 1937 Palau-Ponape
1745 Recognized Greenwich atoll
July 3 Palau-Ponape
0605 recognized Greenwich atoll
0815-0828 Halt. Rescue exercise using a cutter and a launch.
0831-1353 Delivery of supplies & shift member(s) to observatory on Greenwich atoll
1615 Left atoll
July 6-9 Ponape
Loaded coal and water.
July 10 Ponape-Jaluit
0915-0945 Fire‐fighting exercise
July 14-19 Jaluit
Joined athletic games in the stadium, baseball and party.
July 20-23 Jaluit-Ponape
July 24-27 Ponape
Loaded coal and water. Joined exercise.
July 28-August 10 Ponape-Saipan
August 11-20 Saipan
August 21 Left Saipan for Palau
Peter Gunn
Master Sergeant
OUCH! I must admit I had to read that twice, but well played sir, although I'm still keeping an eye on you, I think you've had too much liquid sun of late.
Peter Gunn
Master Sergeant
Me neither, I still say Airframes is part of the cover up.
- Thread starter
- #339
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
"It was substantiated that Miss Earhart met her death on Saipan. The information was given to me directly by General Thomas Watson, who commanded the 2nd U.S. Marine Corps Division during the assault on Saipan in 1944."
"IF" Earhart was indeed captured by the Japanese, the US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.
"IF" Earhart was indeed captured by the Japanese, the US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.
Peter Gunn
Master Sergeant
For me, too much of the "evidence" is anecdotal, "he said she said" kind of stuff that I put little stock in, especially years or now decades after the event and much of it second hand at that. Also I'll go out on a limb here and posit that probably more than one airplane may have had to ditch in the XXX lagoon/bay of YYY island/atoll 80 years ago that could have been misidentified by rather primitive islanders.
In short, they could have seen any airplane ditch in their harbor and when pressed by a zealous reporter/researcher claim it was the Electra.
In short, they could have seen any airplane ditch in their harbor and when pressed by a zealous reporter/researcher claim it was the Electra.
