Earhart's Plane Found?!

[buffnut453]

"It was substantiated that Miss Earhart met her death on Saipan. The information was given to me directly by General Thomas Watson, who commanded the 2nd U.S. Marine Corps Division during the assault on Saipan in 1944."

"IF" Earhart was indeed captured by the Japanese, the US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.

Not only that, but surely efforts would have been made to bring those responsible to justice. Such was the climate of the War Crimes Trials that adding to the list of accused the murderer(s) of 2 American civilians in 1937 wouldn't have been a hard thing to accomplish.

Buff (Mark), I am still somewhat skeptical myself but the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence are hard (for me at least) to totally discount. I am also very much aware of FDR's more realistic appraisal of Japanese motives and intent and his use of civilian resources to avoid a military tie-in. Are you aware of FDR's "Astor Spy Ring"?
Vincent Astor's "job" was forwarding civilian gathered intelligence directly to FDR at least as early as 1933. Most early data concerned general conditions in the Caribbean and Panama Canal Zone, but in 1936 Fred Dearing wrote Roosevelt from his post in Peru that Astor planned to cruise off the Pacific coast of Latin America. "I understand that Vincent Astor is going back to the Galapagos Islands again with a few visitors, but I expect he might pick up some scraps of information for you while he is there." Though anxious to have Astor check rumors that Japanese ships were surveying the Galapagos to locate a site for an advanced base, Roosevelt was more concerned to learn what the Japanese were doing on their far distant islands in the South Pacific held since World War I as League of Nations mandates. Conveniently, Astor and Kermit Roosevelt planned a scientific expedition to the Marshall Islands as a cover for other investigations.
Astor made elaborate preparations, including establishment of a recognition code word for the Nourmahal, a 41 foot yacht built for multi-millionaire Astor in 1928 at Krupp Iron Works in Kiel, Germany, to tie in with the United States Navy radio network and a briefing by Director of Naval Intelligence Ralston S. Holmes. "Admiral Holmes (O.N.I.) told me he believed the Japs had a lot of Radio stations in the islands," Astor advised FDR. "I should think that it would be interesting to know their exact location," and "Nourmahal has a Radio Direction Finder."

In early 1938 Astor sent a lengthy report to the president reviewing his voyage with Kermit Roosevelt to the South Pacific. "On my return, I shall of course make a proper report to O.N.I.," he explained. "However in the remote possibility of trouble between now and then, you might consider the following conclusions of mine concerning the Marshall Islands worth forwarding to Naval Operations & O.N.I." In his message to the president, Astor admitted that when the Japanese refused to grant permission to land he had become a bit of a coward and had left the area. However, through intercepted radio messages and interviews with British intelligence people on the nearby Gilbert and Ellice Islands he had gathered some important data. Astor observed that Eniwetok, not Jaluit or Wotje, seemed to be the principal Japanese naval base, since large docks, fuel stores and ships had been observed there for several years. Bikini Atoll, Astor confided, abounded in suspicious activity and was off-limits to local natives. In addition, Roosevelt's man had learned that trucks and tractors worked to clear an air strip on Wotje, while six Japanese submarines lurked in a nearby lagoon. Astor performed one valuable service by correcting the common impression in Washington that Japan had fortified the Marshall Islands, insisting that the concrete platforms on one island comprised floors for warehouses not emplacements for guns. "I feel moderately certain that there are none [forts] in the Marshalls," he wrote FDR. The Japanese protested vehemently to the U.S. State Department, and one Japanese press report indicated that the U.S. Navy had sent "warships" into the Marshalls and was forming a task force for an attack. Astor had caused a storm with Japan, but his mission was unknown in America.

However, the Japanese while ostensibly building "civilian" structures had built them to heavier, thicker, stronger standards making them easily convertible to later military usage. The U.S. had long believed that Japan was violating that treaty in the Mandated Islands, but could not prove it. The U.S. had countered on Midway and Wake Islands through cooperation with Pan American airways by building "civilian" air fields there, and now Earhart would become the civilian reason or cover for building a landing strip on Howland. To further disguise the Howland venture, President Roosevelt diverted funds from the civilian Works Progress Administration, an obfuscation tactic he had used several times before.
So IMHO, Earhart and Noonan surviving the crash would answer many post-crash questions like the radio messages heard by many official and un-official radio operators. Were Earhart and Noonan spies in the traditional sense, No, but collecting "White Intelligence" I think Yes. Would this infuriate the Japanese, IMHO, Yes. The Japanese Kenpeitai answered to no one and their brutality well known. Would the Kenpeitai consider this White Intelligence spying? again I think Yes. Earhart and Noonan were already thought of as dead and under torture who knows what Noonan may have confessed to, so execution was the easy way to make the problem "go away".
Unpopular? You bet, to the extreme. One only has to look through the replies to these postings to see how many members, whom I would have expected more of, have resorted to Adpellatus Illudere posts View attachment 377765

So...in 1937, Earhart and Noonan are executed for spying but in 1938, Astor isn't despite bobbing around in a boat for weeks and clearly asking to go to places that are off-limits, resulting in a diplomatic storm in Japan? Again, where's the logical consistency here? Having a few submarines or large ships in a lagoon doesn't really count as a major secret (IMHO) and those things (per Astor) were clearly visible to vessels visiting the Marshalls throughout the period in question. Why single out Noonan and Earhart and why use aerial reconnaissance when it was apparently easy to get civilian ships to the area? I still come back to the fundamental question of what could they possibly have seen that was so secret?

 

[Robert Porter]

Sorry Mike, you are correct. But my point is 200 eyewitness's never came forward. The only source of that and other "facts" you are quoting are one person. And that one person is neither reputable or considered a reliable source. Hence my nutcase remark.

 

[vikingBerserker]

The part I have a hard time believing is you have hundreds and hundreds of people from multiple nations, yet nothing was ever written down and all the evidence is "what somebody told me"?

The one thing bureaucracy excels at is paperwork. We have paperwork from that time of top secret projects, military actions, civilian atrocities committed on all sides, secret negotiations, personal thoughts of the highest ranking civilians and generals, yet not one report from anybody about them crashing and being taken prisoner and executed?

If they had been captured I would have a hard time believing the Emperor was not informed. So at the end of the war the Emporer broadcasts Japan is surrendering, then repudiates the divine status of Japan's emperors and was willing to apologize to his people for the war. I am not an expert on Japanese culture but that are some pretty big deals. So he will do this but not admit the killing of a couple of civilians?

That's REALLY a stretch!

 

[Robert Porter]

That's my point, we have direct written evidence of far worse atrocities, including those committed by us, but no official or even semi official information on this. Instead we have ramblings and so and so told so and so with no actual evidence. Yes it is in the realm of possibility, but it so unlikely, especially to have survived this long with a secret still intact that I would apply Occam's razor and say this is by far more of an overcomplicated answer than the reality. These supposed 200 odd eyewitnesses, none have ever come forward surprised or not. Heck we have found diary entries from numerous officials from the time period including those of Japanese soldiers and civilians documenting horrific episodes yet not one about this?

 

[mikewint]

Guys, I don't have all the answers and all the answers will probably never be discovered 80 years later. BUT, for me, in any case there is too much smoke for there not to have been a gun fired out there somewhere.
FDR had a documented history of using civilians as semi-spies., gathering white information if nothing else. Even in 1937, FDR and a few others knew/suspected that war with Japan was inevitable. While Earhart was well known and applauded for her pro-feminist views and feats in the US, those very things would have been an anathema in Japan. Noonan was essentially a nobody. They had already essentially vanished onto a deserted island in Mili Atoll. The only witnesses would be native Marshallese already Japanese military control.
Now multi-millionaire William Astor, Kermit Roosevelt son of a former president AND a 264 foot long steel yacht ( used as a USCG gunboat in WWII) were a TOTALLY different story. They would be very difficult to make suddenly vanish without MAJOR international consequences. Astor also requested permission to dock, was refused, and then left the area. The Nourmahal was also not using a 50-Watt transmitter with two very simple antennas AND had professional operators who actually knew radio procedures,

But my point is 200 eyewitness's never came forward

And neither would you if you were surrounded by the Japanese Military. The Marshallese were well acquainted with the fate of anyone foolish enough to displease the Japanese.

The only source of that and other "facts" you are quoting are one person. And that one person is neither reputable or considered a reliable source. Hence my nutcase remark.

Not sure to whom you are referring to here. There are reams of documents as well as written and video recorded witness statements. Any number of authors have pulled most of this together and the recent investigation by Shawn Henry, a former FBI assistant executive director is hardly a "nutcase" and you don't rise that high in the FBI, or anywhere else by being "unreliable".

Such was the climate of the War Crimes Trials

The US Japanese trials were almost a joke. 28 accused 25 found guilty. 25 guilty, really:
NANKING MASSACRE
300,000 Chinese civilians killed 80,000 women raped and the documented contest between to officers to see who could kill 100 people with a sword first. They lost count so started again going for 150
COMFORT WOMEN
Starting at 15YO 200,000 women forced into prostitution
RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION
60,000 POWs and 200,000 enslaved locals 110,000 died
UNIT 731
Horrific medical, disease, and chemical testing 300,000 die horribly
BAATAN DEATH MARCH
2500 Filipinos and 500 US soldiers die while in the associated Internment camps run by the Kenpeitai 26,000 Filipinos and 7000 US soldiers die
BANGKA ISLAND MASSACRE
Ships fleeing Singapore are shelled and bombed survivors swim to Bangka Island. 65 Australian nurses, injured/uninjured soldiers who make it to the beach are machine gunned
SANDAKAN DEATH MARCH
Retreating Japanese force 26,000 Australian soldiers into the jungle without food or water. 65 survive

There are many more. So 25 guilty...

And what would be the reason for Lieutenant Sachinao Kouzu to keep quiet years later?

Again I can't speak with any certain knowledge but human nature. If you had lied, compiled false records and stood by that for years, how anxious would you be to confess. Also keep in mind the "Saving Face" mindset.

US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.

Joe, again no special knowledge on my part except speculation. Pre-war I can only repeat the words of Navy Secretary Swanson:
"This is a powder keg," replied Swanson. "Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I'm not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse."
AND if Earhart was collecting intelligence, even white, FDR was involved. Could have been his Watergate.
During the War no access to witnesses behind Japanese lines PLUS Earhart's loss was already "officially" a crash and sink and with the war raging not really a concern.
Post-war I would say that Swanson's quote again applies. The US wanted a viable ally and trading partner in post-war Japan and Earhart/Noonan had been dead for 8 years. Let sleeping dogs lie as it were.

If they had been captured I would have a hard time believing the Emperor was not informed.

While the Emperor was the titular head of state the military was running the country and, in effect, the Emperor. There has always been a great deal of debate over what Hirohito knew, did not know, did, or did not do. His status with the Japanese people made him untouchable and any attempt to punish him would have brought about a general revolt as MacArthur well knew.

 

[buffnut453]

Mike,

I think those numbers apply only to the International War Crimes Tribunal for the Far East for Class A war crimes. There were plenty of other war crimes trials activities. According to Japanese records, 5,700 Japanese individuals were indicted for Class B and Class C war crimes. Of this number, 984 were sentenced to death; 475 received life sentences; 2,944 were given more limited prison terms; 1,018 were acquitted; and 279 were never brought to trial or not sentenced. The number of death sentences by country is as follows: the Netherlands 236, Great Britain 223, Australia 153, China 149, United States 140, France 26, and Philippines 17. Still not large numbers given the atrocities committed but there's little doubt that a proportion of those who were guilty died during the war (and, undoubtedly, some that never faced justice).

The quote from Swanson is another of those "I know a guy who knows a guy" quotes that can't be proven, and even if it were it simply states his belief that she may have seen something...but we still don't have a clue about what that something might be. Governments make complaints about each other all the time. While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later.

The "ooops, we killed them" theory is pretty sketchy given the alleged efforts expended by Japan to recover Earhart and Noonan. It's far more probable that, if Japan had them AND had evidence of spying, that they'd flaunt it for the world to see...if nothing else to embarrass Roosevelt (if, as you indicate, this would have been his Watergate).

I think we're going round and round in circles on this. The lack of any tangible evidence beyond the items recovered by TIGHAR, none of which is positively attributable to Earhart or Noonan, puts this firmly in the conspiracy theory category. People will continue to believe it as long as there's a market for sensational stories, irrespective of how illogical or ill-founded they may be.

Cheers,
Mark

 

[fubar57]

It's going to the dogs now.........

Researchers think they know where Amelia Earhart died after History Channel suggested she may have lived

 

[stona]

I find myself in the position where I can only agree with TIGHAR, which isn't something I can often say
Cheers
Steve

 

[Robert Porter]

There is better and more first person evidence that Elvis is alive and living in Argentina than there is that the Japanese captured and killed the pair. Just shows that there are believers for any theory no matter how wild. I would have to agree TIGHAR is the most logical and believable at the moment, but so far, no one has come up with irrefutable evidence as to their fate.

 

[mikewint]

think those numbers apply only to the International War Crimes Tribunal for the Far East for Class A war crimes.

Three died during trial. The other 25 were found guilty. Of those, 7 were hanged and 18 were sentenced to prison terms, but were pardoned by 1958. In 1959, Japan's Emperor Hirohito ordered the names of the war criminals added to a shrine in Tokyo where Japanese have traditionally memorialized their fallen fighters.
"I have a special appreciation for the families of our war criminals," Hirohito said in a benediction. "I know what they have done for Japan. They were among our greatest leaders." Subsequent Japanese leaders have visited the shrine but claim they are not honoring war criminals, just fulfilling their obligations to the dead.
Different definition of "Great"
Historians estimate Japan killed 3 to 14 million civilians during the course of the war

While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later.

Yup, which is why all this has started to surface

I think we're going round and round in circles on this. The lack of any tangible evidence

Agreed, while I'm not totally convinced, as I posted before, there is too much smoke not to have a gun firing somewhere so I find the evidence thus far very compelling.
The very goal of "Conspiricy Theory" is to make it seem ridiculous/far fetched/crazy and the people promoting it to be "nutcases" the perfect cover. WHO in their right mind would believe:
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military created and approved a plan called Operation Northwoods that would allow for acts of terrorism on U.S. soil in order push Americans into supporting a war against Cuba.
President Kennedy ultimately rejected the plan that involved the killing of innocent Americans by shooting them on the streets, sinking boats carrying refugees fleeing Cuba, violent terrorism to be executed in Washington, D.C., Miami, and more, framing people for bombings they did not commit, and planes being hijacked.

A CIA program called MKUltra was a plan devised to develop biological and chemical weapons capability during the Cold War. The CIA ended up using the plan as a means to take advantage of drugs, electronics, hypnosis, sensory deprivation, verbal and sexual abuse, and torture to conduct experimental behavioral engineering experiments on subjects. The program made its way into 80 different institutions including universities, hospitals, prisons, and pharmaceutical companies.
CIA Director Richard Helms had the majority of the MKUltra files destroyed in 1973, however, and so much of what occurred during these experiments remains unknown. Not one person was brought to justice either. Nonetheless, according to the Church Committee, at least two American deaths can be attributed to this program.
In 1995, President Clinton issued a formal apology on behalf of the U.S. government for the MKUltra program.

From 1920 to 1933 the US banned the sale and production of all alcohol, driving a huge underground movement of hidden speakeasies. In an attempt to enforce the ban, the American government poisoned alcohol which resulted in the death of around 700 people.

Between 1932 and 1972 the United States Public Health Service gave 400 poor African-American men syphilis in order to monitor its progression. The aim was to see if the fatal disease behaved differently in black and white men. The men were given wrong and potentially dangerous treatments and medication was sometimes withheld altogether in order to learn more about the STD.
Initially supposed to last just six months, the study continued for 40 years.
Only 74 of the men were still alive by the end and shockingly 40 wives and 19 children had also contracted the disease as a result.

 

[Robert Porter]

And those numbers and the programs revealed prove the point. Even horrific home grown atrocities are exposed. For this relatively minor happening to have remained secret so long suggests there is no secret to reveal, just a lot of unknowns to answer.

 

[mikewint]

irrefutable evidence as to their fate.

Robert we're dealing with human here so do we have irrefutable evidence the Earth is a globe?

And speaking of Conspiracy Theory. Would the President of the United States be involved?...Never...Never...Ever..How crazy to believe
In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson told the public that Vietnamese forces attacked US ships in the waters of the Gulf of Tonkin.
American warships fired over 300 shells
This sparked outrage from the American citizens which escalated the Vietnam War and Congress passed The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution allowing US forces to strike against North Vietnam.
More than three million lives were lost in the conflict.
In 2005 documents were released proving that Johnson had fabricated the Gulf of Tonkin incident in order to justify attacking North Vietnam.

And you think the government would get all upset over two people

 

[Robert Porter]

Very true!

 

[fubar57]

At least with the dogs it will be yea or nay. If....if they find bones and if...if DNA can be extracted, there will be results. With this photo "evidence" presented on the "History" Channel, I'm thinking the final statement of the show will be...(Probably one of the Duck Dynasty guys will be narrating) ".....you be the judge..." On a side note, conspiracy wise, the Kennedy Assassination Papers may or may not be released this year though with CIA and other government agencies heavy hands at censoring, they probably look like this...

 

[Robert Porter]

Sounds about right! And I hear area 51 is opening for tours next year, however you will have to wear a hood over your head, have your hands and legs shackled, and ear muffs will be required. Upon getting on the tour bus you will be gassed into unconsciousness, given the tour, then returned and hopefully wake up. Tour done!

 

[vikingBerserker]

 

[buffnut453]

Three died during trial. The other 25 were found guilty. Of those, 7 were hanged and 18 were sentenced to prison terms, but were pardoned by 1958. In 1959, Japan's Emperor Hirohito ordered the names of the war criminals added to a shrine in Tokyo where Japanese have traditionally memorialized their fallen fighters.
"I have a special appreciation for the families of our war criminals," Hirohito said in a benediction. "I know what they have done for Japan. They were among our greatest leaders." Subsequent Japanese leaders have visited the shrine but claim they are not honoring war criminals, just fulfilling their obligations to the dead.
Different definition of "Great"
Historians estimate Japan killed 3 to 14 million civilians during the course of the war


Yup, which is why all this has started to surface


Agreed, while I'm not totally convinced, as I posted before, there is too much smoke not to have a gun firing somewhere so I find the evidence thus far very compelling.
The very goal of "Conspiricy Theory" is to make it seem ridiculous/far fetched/crazy and the people promoting it to be "nutcases" the perfect cover. WHO in their right mind would believe:
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military created and approved a plan called Operation Northwoods that would allow for acts of terrorism on U.S. soil in order push Americans into supporting a war against Cuba.
President Kennedy ultimately rejected the plan that involved the killing of innocent Americans by shooting them on the streets, sinking boats carrying refugees fleeing Cuba, violent terrorism to be executed in Washington, D.C., Miami, and more, framing people for bombings they did not commit, and planes being hijacked.

A CIA program called MKUltra was a plan devised to develop biological and chemical weapons capability during the Cold War. The CIA ended up using the plan as a means to take advantage of drugs, electronics, hypnosis, sensory deprivation, verbal and sexual abuse, and torture to conduct experimental behavioral engineering experiments on subjects. The program made its way into 80 different institutions including universities, hospitals, prisons, and pharmaceutical companies.
CIA Director Richard Helms had the majority of the MKUltra files destroyed in 1973, however, and so much of what occurred during these experiments remains unknown. Not one person was brought to justice either. Nonetheless, according to the Church Committee, at least two American deaths can be attributed to this program.
In 1995, President Clinton issued a formal apology on behalf of the U.S. government for the MKUltra program.

From 1920 to 1933 the US banned the sale and production of all alcohol, driving a huge underground movement of hidden speakeasies. In an attempt to enforce the ban, the American government poisoned alcohol which resulted in the death of around 700 people.

Between 1932 and 1972 the United States Public Health Service gave 400 poor African-American men syphilis in order to monitor its progression. The aim was to see if the fatal disease behaved differently in black and white men. The men were given wrong and potentially dangerous treatments and medication was sometimes withheld altogether in order to learn more about the STD.
Initially supposed to last just six months, the study continued for 40 years.
Only 74 of the men were still alive by the end and shockingly 40 wives and 19 children had also contracted the disease as a result.

Smoke can indicate but it can also obscure. Undoubtedly there isn't a nation on the planet whose various governments through the ages have not engaged in some form of heinous skullduggery on behalf of or even against their own citizens. You cite several examples above but, in each case there is some clearly defined rationale for the event/activity, no matter how twisted or sick the logic. Also, most such crimes do eventually come to light in archives, personal contemporaneous records etc.

We also need to be careful about how facts are couched. For example, in your alcohol poisoning example, the work was carried out on industrial alcohol that was being stolen by bootleggers. Now, there were certainly better alternatives but one can see the logic of the argument that if people didn't break the law, they wouldn't get hurt. It seems wildly extreme by today's standards but there is a thread of logic there, and it wasn't like the Government was poisoning bottles of Jack Daniels...at least not directly.

Going back to Earhart, I truly think there's WAYYY more smoke than fire here. For any of the potential Earhart conspiracy theories to be true, there would simply HAVE to be some contemporaneous document SOMEWHERE, in the US or Japan, to augment the hearsay accounts. After more than 30 years of delving into the archives by various researchers, no such evidence has come to light. I find it highly implausible that it was so sensitive that all documents would be destroyed...not when evidence of Astor's spying or any of the other examples you cite DID survive.

As for "conspiracy theories" being synonymous with crackpots, there's some history there I'm afraid - and plenty of it, to include those who believe Sandy Hook was faked. I'm all for re-evaluating history based on new evidence...but there has to be some real, solid evidence presented and not just hearsay. The same "fact" repeated 200 times does not make that "fact" any more real. In the intelligence game, it's called circular reporting where a single report gets repeated by several organizations, lending it a credibility that simply isn't there. Third-hand reporting of statements by people who can't correct the record does not, under any circumstances, represent credible evidence...and a greater volume of incredible evidence does not make a theory or argument any stronger. Unfortunately, many do not evaluate information critically, a problem that's getting worse and worse in the so-called "information age" when we're failing to teach our kids critical thinking skills in the era of immediate "fake news".

 

[buffnut453]

Sounds about right! And I hear area 51 is opening for tours next year, however you will have to wear a hood over your head, have your hands and legs shackled, and ear muffs will be required. Upon getting on the tour bus you will be gassed into unconsciousness, given the tour, then returned and hopefully wake up. Tour done!

The Scene: RAF Lyneham Officers' Mess, Oxfordshire, England

The Year: 1990

Two Herc navigators were sitting quietly in the bar one Friday Happy Hour, away from the main group of drinkers who were letting their hair down at the end of the week. Each of the 2 navs wore a pointed hat made of tin foil. The Station Commander, intrigued by their odd (even by Herc aircrew standards) behavior, walked over and asks "Ok chaps, I have to know. Why the hats?" The navigators paused their drinking, fixed their eyes on "Harry Staish" and declared solemnly, "So you can't steal our thoughts, sir." They then lowered their eyes and resumed their pints without saying another word. The Station Commander, entirely nonplussed, walked away shaking his head.

Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you!

 

[Robert Porter]

Years ago a co-worker told me that he and a college friend went out for drinks wearing tinfoil hats and wearing rabbits feet on straps on their wrists. He said no one asked them a thing about it. He was not sure which disturbed them more, that no one asked or that no one needed to ask.

 

[Shinpachi]

While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later.

Yup, which is why all this has started to surface

There were always communists in the 1930s, like Richard Sorge and Hotsumi Ozaki as journalists, behind the conflicts between Japan and the U.S. to drive them into the war. Situation would resemble if the alliance got broken.
Good point, Mike.