Earhart's Plane Found?!

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ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited. It's truly amazing how so many of you jump with total belief and vindication glee on that ONE negative finding that supports your belief but reacted with total disbelieving disdain and ridicule when the one positive finding (photograph) was first presented.

Mike - you can't have a partial conspiracy theory, it's all or nothing. I'm sorry but everything you've presented so far is based on assumptions, here say and speculation. Personally I have an easier time buying into some of the Kennedy Assassination theories then I do buying into this. Go back a few pages and read some of the other pages that slams shut the "Japanese Theories" and shows quite clearly that she just ran out of fuel, probably ditched and probably survived a few days. As you're so quick to jump on the Japanese Prisoner bandwagon, consider this...

Mystery Deepens Over Bones Linked to Amelia Earhart

Exclusive: Bone-Sniffing Dogs to Hunt for Amelia Earhart's Remains

Go back to pages 9 - 11 of this thread and a lot of what you're bringing up was previously discussed.

Earhart's Plane Found?!

Here's another link showing that she actually asked the Japanese permission to overfly their territory during 1936

Earhart's Plane Found?! | Page 10 | WW2Aircraft.net Forums
 
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ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited.
But it is not just one piece of evidence. The photo takes out the whole issue of the ship supposedly used to transport them and tow their plane. That photo was the keystone to the whole house of cards, when it went all the rest of the related evidence went with it. Of the facts in actual evidence no one is in dispute. It is how those facts were woven together to support a massive concoction that is in dispute. Not only has the photo been discredited but so has the the supposed FBI whatever, and the communist woman that tied the whole thing in a nice neat ball. As more and more true investigators are jumping on this more and more of the supposed evidence is turning into well someone I know told me that someone that knew someone else said.

Like has been stated over and over, heresy evidence is thankfully not admissible. For very good reasons. And 90% of their story was based on just that. And now the 10% of their supposed facts have been shown to be frauds. This is one dead dog, further flogging of it is only going to raise dust.
 
Still - it was fun looking at head, hairlines and body shapes from old photographs.
Saw this in a book circa 1949.
Did he somehow survive?? A new conspiracy theory? That guy getting his luggage checked also looks suspicious...;)

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In fact, how would Earhart and Noonan have been treated by Japanese if they had been captured ?

1931 trans-Pacific flight
Pangborn and Herndon in Japan in 1931

With their eyes on a $25,000 prize, Pangborn and Herndon next decided to attempt the first nonstop trans-Pacific flight. They flew from Siberia to Japan in preparation. In the spirit of documentation, Herndon took several still pictures and 16 mm motion pictures, some of which were of Japan's naval installations. The photography and inadequate documentation to enter the country (which they had not been aware of), the men were jailed. They were eventually released with a $1,000 fine, but they were allowed only one chance to take off in Miss Veedol; if they returned to Japan, the plane would be confiscated and the men would return to prison.
Clyde Pangborn - Wikipedia

This was official news at the time.

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Monument in Misawa
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Personally the photograph was never a serious piece of evidence especially in today's digital world where photographs are so easily altered. Likewise the blurry indistinct Earhart figure was only suggestive. I was more impressed with the Noonan-figure. Though blurred as well facial features and hairline very very close matches.
So my opinion is unchanged, photograph or not. There is too much other circumstantial and documented evidence present not to give credence to the Earhart/Marshall Island/capture scenario.
.

It was the producers of the programme that described the photograph as "near to a smoking gun", not me. I didn't hinge all the pre-show publicity to stump up audience numbers on a bogus photograph, they did. I didn't reverse a photograph of Noonan to match the hairline of an unknown figure, they did. It's bad research and bad history...period.

The circumstantial evidence is just that, and doesn't add up to substantial proof of the Marshall Islands scenario. Some of that has been discredited too.

We will probably never know what happened to the unfortunate pair, but execution or death during imprisonment at the hands of the Japanese would be very close to the bottom of a rational list of possibilities.

Cheers

Steve
 
everything you've presented so far is based on assumptions, here say and speculation
ran out of fuel,
Joe, you are somewhat correct. Unfortunately at this late date speculation and conjecture are all the probably remains. BUT there are some documented sources such as her fuel report that shows 1156 gallons of fuel at take off and at fuel consumption of 42 gallons per hour she had 27 flying hours. So at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining. More than enough to reach a land mass. That of course does not preclude a ditching but does make it a more remote possibility. The permission letter and its written refusal are another smoking gun. She had asked and been denied and then in spite of that did it anyway!! What would THAT say to the Japanese were she captured? To get something labeled as conspiracy is an automatic way to get a majority to discount it, mission accomplished.
It is also strange that every time something concrete is discovered it manages to disappear. Bones have been found 3 times. The skeleton on Nik, bones from a grave on Saipan reported to be Earhart's dug up by two Marines, a brief case found in a safe in Kenpeitat Headquarters on Saipan, and years later bone fragments from that same grave. All vanished after being turned in to higher authorities
quick to jump on the Japanese Prisoner bandwagon
I simply think that it is more credible than having her ditching with hours of fuel remaining. Add to that the Japanese Military take over of the civilian government, Japanese expansionist doctrine, Japanese total blackout of what was going on in the Marshalls, and the prevalent principle of gekokujo within the IJA make a capture and imprisonment likely had she landed within the Marshalls. So that is speculation but so is the ditch and sink scenario.

The photo takes out the whole issue of the ship supposedly used to transport them and tow their plane.
No Robert it does not. The photo, if verified would have been documentation of the story Marshallese natives had been telling since after WWII. The Marshall Island stamps were issued long before that photo. The original stories were by actual eye witnesses though now they have become heresay since these men have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today
As more and more true investigators
Definition: The people who agree with me...anyone else is a "nutcase"

In fact, how would Earhart and Noonan have been treated by Japanese if they had been captured ?
Again, like Lindbergh's treatment this is not germane. Pangborn had left on July 27th and landed in Japan on August 8, 1931. The Japanese invasion of Manchuria did not occur until September 18, 1931. The installations photographed by Pangborn were hardly in the same state of war preparations as they would be in 1937. Japan was still a member of the League of Nations and had not withdrawn so it had not been isolated and US embargos had not been imposed. They were dealing with a much different Japan than it would be in 1937 and they were in Tokyo dealing with civilian courts not in an isolated island group dealing with the Kenpeitai.
Not to mention that the principle of gekokujo did not apply in civilian life only to the military who were not trying this case.
 
Mike, everything looks coming from your imagination with less historical reseach by yourself which, I don't know why, you don't want to do.

So, which Japanese ship carried them to Saipan, Mike ?
The Koshu theory has turned out to be Aoki's imagination and it took almost 2 weeks from Jaluit to Saipn by the vessel.
Why didn't IJN use a flying boat to carry if it did not want to hand them over to the U.S. ?
Strange.
 
Shinpachi, It is true that I have no "original document" but I believe that this has already been answered.
A fishing boat had picked them up from an island in the Mili Atoll. Taken them to Jalut where the Koshu took them and the plane to Saipan the Military headquarters for the Marshall Islands.
Another scenario was that the pair was taken by Japanese ship to Yap, and then a flight by Japanese Naval Seaplane to Saipan.
As for the Kenpeitai, while it was principally an Army unit, it also discharged the functions of the military police for the IJN under the direction of the Admiralty Minister (although the IJN had its own much smaller Tokkeitai), those of the executive police under the direction of the Interior Minister, and those of the judicial police under the direction of the Justice Minister.
 
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Joe, you are somewhat correct. Unfortunately at this late date speculation and conjecture are all the probably remains. BUT there are some documented sources such as her fuel report that shows 1156 gallons of fuel at take off and at fuel consumption of 42 gallons per hour she had 27 flying hours. So at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining. More than enough to reach a land mass. That of course does not preclude a ditching but does make it a more remote possibility. The permission letter and its written refusal are another smoking gun. She had asked and been denied and then in spite of that did it anyway!! What would THAT say to the Japanese were she captured? To get something labeled as conspiracy is an automatic way to get a majority to discount it, mission accomplished.
It is also strange that every time something concrete is discovered it manages to disappear. Bones have been found 3 times. The skeleton on Nik, bones from a grave on Saipan reported to be Earhart's dug up by two Marines, a brief case found in a safe in Kenpeitat Headquarters on Saipan, and years later bone fragments from that same grave. All vanished after being turned in to higher authorities
n have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today

Mike - there's a lot of assumptions there. First no one knows if she was burning 42 gallons per hour. If she decided to fly rich for engine cooling purposes or had a any type of head wind that blows that out. 5.5 hours of fuel (speculated at the best case) at 130 MPH still doesn't solve anything and the fact that her radio transmissions were heard quite clear by the Itasca proves she was at least close to Howland Island. Back in the beginning of this thread that fact was beat to death.

The fact she was denied permission is irrelevant. There were many pilots trying to break records that were denied civil flight permits during that period. Ever hear of "Wrong Way Corrigan"?

Mike - I bet there are at least 1000 people in Nashville alone who had seen Elvis.
 
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No Robert it does not. The photo, if verified would have been documentation of the story Marshallese natives had been telling since after WWII. The Marshall Island stamps were issued long before that photo. The original stories were by actual eye witnesses though now they have become heresay since these men have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today
The photo was the main evidence of the ship in question and was used to "prove" that specific ship was used. Read the book you quote from. That photo WAS their proof. As to the eyewitnesses, it is simply too convenient that the ONLY person they spoke to was the author of this book. She lists no other sources for those eyewitnesses, and living or dead they apparently never came forward to anyone else. Unless you can find an independent verification of their "testimony" it might as well be a figment of the authors imagination. The stamps honestly prove absolutely nothing other than they were well known celebrities of the day which were often used as subjects of stamps.

By real investigators I mean those with degrees in investigative journalism as well as actual trained investigators of which there have been literally 100's that have looked into this. And none of those with established credentials have found anything to support this account. Indeed to the contrary they were unable to find a single eyewitness to come forward. And please don't tell me they would still be intimidated into silence after all this time. At the very least we would expect a death bed confession or two.

It makes a great yarn, but there is pretty much no solid or even tangential evidence to back this theory up. And I know you are neither under educated nor simple minded, if you take an objective step back and look at the counters to this story that have been published I am sure you would/will come to the same conclusion.
 
Japan was still a member of the League of Nations and had not withdrawn so it had not been isolated and US embargos had not been imposed. They were dealing with a much different Japan than it would be in 1937 and they were in Tokyo dealing with civilian courts not in an isolated island group dealing with the Kenpeitai.
Not to mention that the principle of gekokujo did not apply in civilian life only to the military who were not trying this case.

Even after Japan left the League of Nations in 1933, Japan made efforts to keep good relationships with the western countries. Celebration flight for the coronation ceremony of King George VI by Asahi Shinbun's Kamikaze from Tokyo to London in April 1937 was symbolic. Japan was also glad to participate in Expo 1937 held in Paris during May-November 1937.

The U.S. was not a member of the League of Nations either (why ?) but tightened her watch on Japan since 1933. In 1937 only, the U.S. government frequently asked Japanese government to allow her naval warships to visit Japanese ports. Japanese government accepted them as much as it could but looks tired in the end of the year. What would have happened if Japan had hidden Earhart and Noonan ? Awful to imagine.

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And there's more; here is just two examples.

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How many people claim to have seen these two? Yet for all the investigations, no conclusive evidence has been found for the existence of either. Yeti artefacts invariably prove to be from different animals, and as for Nessie, well, she's good for the tourist trade.

Cheers

Steve
 
Dorothy Cochrane a curator at the aeronautics department at the National Air and Space Museum was shown the photograph and certainly wasn't so sure about it, or the 'expert' opinions used in the programme. "I can't really comment definitively on the photograph, and I don't think [History investigators] can either." She noted that the image is "kind of a blurry photograph." She was of course merely stating the obvious, just look at the image in question. However, her dissenting view was not included in the programme, which had a different agenda. Her caution has now been vindicated.
Did I mention that this sort of 'history' programme really grinds my gears :)
Cheers
Steve
 
People like History channel and the author of the book in question prey, knowingly, on the human desire to have an answer to the unanswered. We have likely all fallen prey to one or another very convincing story on a topic of interest to us. I have had my fair share of things I was sure of only to find out I was mistaken or taken advantage of. It is human nature after all, on both sides. It is sad that certain individuals and companies take advantage of that part of human nature to sell books and promote TV shows but they do. And the more controversial the story the more potential revenue for them. And with the advent of the internet and social media, these stories spread far and wide and very quickly. It is why fact checking sites and debunking sites have shown up all over as well. I would be willing to bet that right now I "know" something that is totally false but I have yet to realize it.

A good writer can weave an very compelling story out of lots of little pieces for both print and TV and that has happened more than once with this particular event in history. Until DNA can be found, or the wreck of the aircraft itself we will probably not know the answer. Even then there may be portions of the tale we will just never know.

Have to run, I have a dinner meeting with Elvis and then I am going dancing with Marilyn Monroe. See you all soon.
 
First no one knows if she was burning 42 gallons per hour. If she decided to fly rich for engine cooling purposes or had a any type of head wind that blows that out.
Very true but again base on what is actually documented the 42 gph is reasonable and Yea another assunption. Remember, this issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation was made by Kennedy a man who would know. Secondly, again documented, we can apply the plane's performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight (which would decrease with time) and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane's climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,156 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion so dropping that to 4 hours still gives her flight time.
Joe, as a pilot would you ditch in the open ocean given a choice or would you stay in the air as long as possible?

There were many pilots trying to break records that were denied civil flight permits during that period
Yes, there were, but none trying to over fly a Japanese territory that they had been keeping as totally restricted as possible for years and had denied everyone access. The very reason Roosevelt was so anxious to find out exactly what they were up to in this area. Based on this another theory is that Earhart never intended to land at Howland but intended to "get lost" thus giving the US Navy an excuse to search in restricted areas. Joe, think militarily. If you had asked a superior permission to do something and been denied and then did it anyway what would be the result? As opposed to doing without asking and asking forgiveness afterward? So Earhart ASKING and being DENIED makes any type of overflight so much worse if/when captured.

I bet there are at least 1000 people in Nashville alone who had seen Elvis.
Yea, it's the "nutcases" that give conspiracy theory a bad rep. I've been called MUCH worse in my time. I do realize that I can be and possibly am wrong but, IMHO the crash land, rescue, in Japanese hands, imprisonment scenario is highly plausible

The photo was the main evidence of the ship in question and was used to "prove" that specific ship was used
In the sense of "prove" I'd have to agree. In Amelia Earhart : The Final Story, Vince Loomis went to considerable efforts to dig out the records of what Japanese ships were in the Marshalls in July 1937. He was trying to confirm what ship his witness, Bilimon Amaron, had boarded and which had been seen carrying the Earhart Electra on its aft deck. His book claims that he was able to determine that the Japanese really did not carry out the search for Earhart they later claimed to have made, because the ships of the "12th Squadron" supposedly used in the search were, in fact, in port in Japan the whole time. The only ship Loomis could come up with anywhere near the Marshalls was the seaplane tender Koshu. She was in Ponape, about 400 miles west of the Marshalls, on July 2, 1937 and arrived in Jaluit in the Marshalls on July 13. Loomis says Koshu then left Jaluit sailing for Saipan

On Jaluit, Bilimon Amaron, a medical corpsman for the Japanese stated that he was taken to the ship, Koshu, in the harbor to treat an American man and woman. The crew of the ship said they picked them [two Caucasians, a male and a female] up between the Gilbert Islands and Mili Island, on a small atoll. "We treated the man – I personally did. The wound on the front side of the head was not very serious, but the wound around the knee was kind of a four-inch cut, inflamed, slightly bleeding; it was infected and had been open for quite a long time. I could not stitch it but used Paraply on the knee. The head wound required only a bandage." Bilimon told his brother at a later time that the man had some false teeth. Fred had taken a bad fall and broke out several teeth a while before the trip and his dentist had made a temporary bridge or plate to use till he got back The Japanese on board told him that the man and woman had run out of fuel and came down near Mili; the man hurt himself when the plane landed.
Later, in 1984, Bilimon provided additional information when he was interviewed about the treatment he'd provided in 1937: …Bilimon Amaron recalled that the Japanese navy had been taking an exercise in the area at the time of the crash. The crewmen of the cargo ship were military, not civilian, he remembered, and there were guards aboard as well. The wounded man and the woman were not being treated as spies, however.
In fact, Amaron found nothing memorable about the event except the race of the marooned pair. He saw no other Caucasians in the Marshalls during those years. At the time, he had never heard of Amelia Earhart. Only much later did he recognize her and Noonan from photographs and realize what he had actually seen that day. .

The U.S. was not a member of the League of Nations either (why ?) but tightened her watch on Japan since 1933. In 1937 only, the U.S. government frequently asked Japanese government to allow her naval warships to visit Japanese ports. Japanese government accepted them as much as it could but looks tired in the end of the year. What would have happened if Japan had hidden Earhart and Noonan ? Awful to imagine.
League of Nations -
The League of Nations was an American idea championed by President Woodrow Wilson (a Democrat). However, many Americans feared the League's 10th Article. They believed that this article allowed the League of Nations to force the United States to commit its military and economic power in places that were not beneficial to the country. They also wanted to stick with the country's traditional aversion to international entanglements. Senator Lodge (a Republican) and President Wilson had a bitter mutual antipathy and Lodge was very angry that Wilson had not consulted him and the US Senate (a Senate controlled by the members of the Republican Party who viewed him as both an idealist and a political enemy). Then Wilson had a massive stroke in 1919 that limited his ability to negotiate for the Treaty. Without Wilson to back it, the treaty languished for months until the Senate voted it down 49-35 in 1920.
US tightens her watch - because of Japans increasing militarism and expansion:
During the 1930s, Japan's increasingly expansionist policies brought it into renewed conflict with its neighbors, Russia and China.
In March 1933, Japan withdrew from the League of Nations in response to international condemnation of its conquest of Manchuria.
On January 15, 1936, Japan withdrew from the Second London Naval Disarmament Conference because the United States and Great Britain refused to grant the Japanese Navy parity.
In July 1937, a second war between Japan and China began with the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. The attack was condemned by the U.S. and several members of the League of Nations including Britain, France, Australia and the Netherlands. Japanese atrocities during the conflict, such as the notorious Nanking Massacre that December, served to further complicate relations with the rest of the world.
Japan's new military power and willingness to use it threatened Western economic and territorial interests in Asia.
Beginning in 1938, the U.S. adopted a succession of increasingly restrictive trade restrictions with Japan. This included terminating its 1911 commercial treaty with Japan in 1939, further tightened by the Export Control Act of 1940.
Also in 1940 Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, officially forming the Axis Powers.
The Tripartite Pact guaranteed assistance if a signatory was attacked by any country not already involved in conflict with the signatory; this implicitly meant the U.S. The Roosevelt administration would not be dissuaded; believing the American way of life would be endangered if Europe and the Far East fell under military dictatorship. Thus, the United States slowly moved from being a neutral power to one preparing for war.
American warship visits - Again apples and oranges. Your documents are for open visits to open main Island ports not a clandestine over flight of heavily restricted areas and ports
What would have happened - Terrible outrage in the US and severe embargoes which is why they had to be quietly and secretly made to vanish into unmarked graves,

Speaking of stamps used for proof...
Actually no one did offer the stamps as proof of anything except as evidence of how widespread the story and belief in it had become in the Marshall Islands as witness after witness came forth
 
By real investigators I mean those with degrees in investigative journalism as well as actual trained investigators
Have to run, I have a dinner meeting with Elvis and then I am going dancing with Marilyn Monroe. See you all soon.
And with an attitude like that you have to question WHY "real" investigators shy away from topics like this? I don't consider you to be uneducated or I-Gor-Ent Neither yet you continually resort to ridicule when things don't match your preconceived notions.
Just as "real" scientists and "investigators" shy away from anything to do with UFOs. They face the same type of pejorative reception and loss of reputation. Not easy to not back the Party Line.
 

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