Fleshing this out a little:
Actually I would more characterise it as avoiding "So what were the percentage losses of the reconnaissance aircraft, and what qualifies for them for "doom prone" and "die like flies"?"
P-38 pilots (1st FG, 14th FG, 82nd FG) claimed 1431 victories in the Med, (mostly in Italy)
If Italy is Italian mainland, not Sardinia, 1st FG arrival around 8 December 1943, 14th FG 12 December, 82nd FG 3 October. The list I am working from indicates the half way point for P-38 claims was reached in September 1943.
I dont' know the claims by type in Theater for the British fighters flown by British units, maybe you have that?
To obtain the RAF claims I would need to process a large number of pages from daily sortie/loss/claim files.
The problem with the P-38 was that losses were bad enough that one whole fighter group (14th FG) had two squadrons almost completely 'reduced' and had to be pulled out of combat for three months.
28 January 1943, the 2 (not 3) squadron 14th FG is withdrawn from combat given the strain on pilots and general lack of P-38 replacements, it will stay out of combat until May 1943, before being withdrawn it claimed 57 enemy aircraft, while the 1st claimed 33.5 to end January.
These were at the time using early P-38Fs which were IMO not suitable for the Theater. 1st and 82nd FG also took crippling losses initially. During the fighting in North Africa the role of the P-38 units was shifted so that they were mainly using P-38s to escort B-24s on long range missions, rather than fighting for air superiority over the front lines like the P-40 and Spitfire units (and later P-47s), though this gradually changed as the newer / better model P-38s started arriving.
As for why the USAAF was losing so many aircraft in and around Tunisia,
21 November 1942, 14th FG, 6 P-38 lost attempting night landings.
6 January 1943, 350th FG P-39 fly from Britain to Morocco, 62 P-39 sent, 2 missing, 10 interned in Portugal, 1 in Spain.
15 January 1943, 33rd FG took a heavy bombing raid, it had arrived with 71 operational fighters, now down to 30.
23 January 1943, 1st FG, 6 P-38 lost when bounced while strafing German troops. There are no doubt other examples of heavy USAAF losses on ground support missions or not to enemy aircraft in the air.
With the army under pressure the air units were switched more to ground support, which made the aircraft more vulnerable, add the quality of airfields and it is not surprising the losses went up beyond the replacement rate. Now add combat debut by inexperienced units, the general quality of the axis units, crews and machines, which were operating from good airfields with probably better supply lines. All the USAAF fighters were in trouble in air combat but such losses were only part of the overall casualties. It went a long way to making the air force view that continual effective ground support required suppressing the enemy air force first.
The USAAF had expressed doubts about the RAF supply and equipment requirements for units in active combat, it was now learning for itself.
When it came to enabling long range bombing raids the P-38 were a requirement, that in turn required the long range bombers with enough supplies.
Not disagreeing with this but they did have Bf 110s and Ju-88C-6 operating in the Med, and in one incident a squadron of Ju-88C-6 actually shot down several (I think 5 or 6?) P-38s over the sea near Spain when the latter were being ferried to North Africa from England (during the day). I don't remember the date off hand but I could look it up. The P-38s were being ferried with minimal ammunition, I think 50 rounds, and were caught by surprise.
23 December 1942, 82nd FG, Bay of Biscay, 51 P-38 plus an A-20B as navigator. Four Ju88 from 14./KG40, the A-20B and 1 P-38 shot down, one P-38 forced back to Britain, 1 force landed in Portugal, 1 force landed in Spain, 2 Ju88 crash landed due to lack of fuel, a fifth Ju88 that joined the fight was lost. The P-38 pilots claimed 1 Ju88 shot down, some references say 2.
Please stop relying on inaccurate anecdotes.
The Ministry of Aircraft Production reports first Spitfire IX exports as 52 in the 4 weeks to 1 January 1943, another 38 in the 4 weeks to 29 January, another 55 in the 4 weeks to 26 February, no report by mark for March, for the 4 weeks to 30 April another 28 IX plus 8 VIII.
End February 1943 the Middle East reports 3 mark IX on strength after losing 1. Another 87 reported en route. End March 1943 there were 49 mark IX in the Middle East, 53 in North West Africa and possibly some with USAAF units, 84 IX and 3 VIII on way.
The air combat situation over Tunisia was bad enough the RAF went against its principles and formed as elite unit, the Polish Fighter Flight, gave it the best equipment and told them to hunt axis fighters.