For those who want to skip the JD part search for ColFord.
To answer your question requires a list of bomber mafia members and where they were in 1943, with particular reference to having influence over 8th Air Force target decisions. To turn it around how did the 8th Air Force command continue to justify the tactic and account for the problems so far? Please provide the quotes.
Let me ask you again: what options did Eaker really have? Because it's pretty hard to come up with a scenario where either they are bombing something relatively unimportant because it's within fighter range or they are bombing something important and taking big losses.
There seems to be single definition of important being used, US only. Stay within fighter range and attack targets the Luftwaffe was willing to defend, that is considered important, or go after the ground targets the US said were important but out of escort range. In early 1943 the Luftwaffe knew it had to oppose the USAAF raids as they were going to continue and build and they had the bomb lift to do real damage to targets. Convincing the US to pause would be useful, to stop even better.
The only reason you have given me for believing that Eaker and Arnold ignore the results is because you say they did.
Once again Arnold is drawn in at a lower level command. The loss results were available, the raids continued, ipso facto the 8th Air Force ignored the accumulating results.
The mission data doesn't support a conclusion like that unless you ignore all other factors. When human judgement is involved you can't get a complete picture unless you know exactly what was in their minds.
So in other words we need to read the minds of dead people.
Not every waking minute of every day but what went into their reports or the private notes.
Which has nothing to do with the reality the attacks continued. Should I describe Frank Capra's movie night with FDR, Harpo Marx and others? How about his private conversations with General Marshall?
Let's take what
drgondog said about the gunners' claims. Even if they accepted a third of the number, it's entirely possible to envisage a situation where Eaker has a set of figures on one side of the ledger saying that the Luftwaffe is losing aircraft in large numbers and on the other side is the Eighth's losses. Pretty soon one side is going to reach a breaking point. So it becomes a question of which balance sheet you believe over the other. That's not doctrine: that's probability.
So we depart from reality to how about if. To be winning the battle of material required about 3.5 to 1 losses, to be winning the personnel casualties around 20 to 1. Meantime though Eaker while in Britain flatly refused to learn about Ultra, he had members of his staff who knew, plus the RAF reports about German losses and strengths. Spaatz was Ultra cleared.
Yes the USAAF was willing to use overestimates of bomber gunner successes. The above winning the battle of attrition idea means ignoring the loss rates are above sustainable to go with the other side is even further above sustainable.
Also note Harris does not seem to have learnt about Ultra until 1945 or not at all, so no direct information on the oil campaign, but did learn all the 1941/42/43 Panacea targets did not give the expected results.
How do you know they ignored it? Where do they say that?
Again because the operations continued, including going deeper and therefore upping the risks. How many commanders have ever been quoted as saying they ignored their casualties?
If there is so much information out there that you have drawn this conclusion so clearly, do you think you could provide some direct quotes?
How about you providing some direct figures? After all I have pointed out I do not collect quotes, having seen too many times how they can be misused.
When asked to provide proof of a statement and Just before, To misquote your first sentence, Nowhere in that quote from J.D. does he provide any first hand quotes from anyone that backs up what he said. So why should I accept his version of events? Please adhere to this level of proof from now on.
This is not acceptable in the context of a reasonable discussion and I see no point in continuing. I really hate doing this Geoffrey but it serves no further purpose.
Providing the level of proof you demand of others is obviously not possible.
You have a lot of excellent information Geoffrey and I have continually acknowledged that but you have not shown:
1) Any concrete evidence via quotes that either Arnold or Eaker "ignored" the advice, despite repeated requests;
2) That there was a direct link between the extensive figures you have presented and the claim that they ignored advice. In fact, the only supporting thing you have said what that the trend was obvious, which is not the same thing;
3) Any alternative high value targets that could have been bombed without sustaining heavy losses.
1) As I have repeated I provide the figures, you provide reasons why they must be set aside until a quote appears and again, drag Arnold into the 8th Air Force command structure.
2) It seems pointing out the operations continued and adding here were going deeper is not providing evidence the casualty figures were being ignored, glossed over, downplayed etc. Though I did like the fallback of they were not ignored, they just might have magnified the losses on the other side to make it look like it was working.
3) As noted what was high value to the US was not the necessarily the same to the Luftwaffe, to expand, the RAF operations had not delivered large bomb loads, the USAAF ones were going to and were going deeper as well. The Luftwaffe was obviously willing to fight over France, so continue that.
In journalism, the object in normal circumstances, is to get both sides of the story and the best available version of the truth. Very often that means asking difficult and occasionally confronting questions.
Can you provide a provable quote you have been a journalist? I note the creed and I note your failure to answer the difficult and occasionally confronting questions. Something those who dislike journalists point out, the often one way nature of "prove it".
What it is not is saying, "This is how it is, now prove me wrong."
Fine, I laid out the numbers of what happened, and in reply it is show me the quote, and ONLY the quote, otherwise scenarios like loss rates can be invented.
You could have helped here Geoffrey, you really could.
Help, some refuse it. Also helping to write fictional history is not my preference.
I did wonder about how long range bombing could be prioritised over the invasion of Sicily.
So where is the quote showing the priorities? The 8th Air Force temporarily transferred 3 B-24 groups to the Mediterranean. How many more before priority is reversed? Next comes what resources the commanders wanted, how many more heavy bombers? Next comes how many more aircraft could be supported as air forces are supply heavy units.
Harris was a different story. It became clearer the longer the war went on that Harris was running his own war.
Actually the reverse was the case. The Battle of Berlin left a legacy, next came the period of SHAEF control and the known success of the oil campaign (unlike almost any other economic target the allies, mostly via the Luftwaffe, gained a good idea of the bombing results).
Target choice was quixotic and without any serious signs of cooperation.
So how is quixotic defined? How often did the 8th Air Force co-operate with Bomber Command?
At the end of the campaign Eisenhower had more praise for Harris than Spaatz, if you understand the main objective was to get the allied armies into Germany that rates Harris above Spaatz. Harris flew to the SHAEF meetings, Spaatz tended to delegate. In 1944/45 Bomber Command reports 119,935 long tons of bombs on troops and defences, Richard Davis thinks the 8th Air Force dropped 43,932 short tons on tactical targets, the 24 and 25 July 1944 Operation Cobra bombings were 4,088.8 short tons.
My understanding is that he was asked to bomb the Schweinfurt factories by night but declined because he believed the target too small.
When was this asked? As for small it looks like Schweinfurt had 36,000 people on around 293 acres, or under 0.5 square miles, in late 1943 and early 1944 for targets in Germany Bomber Command was putting around 55% of its bombs within 3 miles of the aiming point. There are a number of night raids where the marking was far enough off the target was effectively missed, the further into Germany the bigger the errors. The night raid of 24/25 February 1944, 734 aircraft sent 662 credited with attacking, 32 missing, 3 category E, 1,372.8 short tons HE, 1,160.8 short tons incendiary followed the USAAF raid of the 24th, 238 attacking, 11 missing, 399.3 short tons HE, 175.3 short tons incendiary, the raid reports tend to merge the overall results. In theory this was part of an idea for day bombers to light fires to guide night bombers, did not work well fire wise and in any case in February 1944 the last thing Bomber Command could afford was becoming predictable or going deep inside Germany.
This was almost reasonable by his lights.
Then let us be reasonable, Bomber Command knocked out all its assigned oil targets before the 8th Air Force did, Harris then waited for Portal to ask for more. Bomber Command raids on specific targets, say a refinery, that hit bad weather could be reclassified city strikes, post war the 8th Air Force altered its target classifications removing city and substituting things like marshalling yards. When you look at the Bomber Command city strikes and 8th AF bombing through 8 to 10/10 cloud from the second half of 1944 on, they keep matching.
Harris followed orders, in particular he attacked the specific targets and made the point he did so because otherwise the people behind the ideas about targets would blame Bomber Command for failing, rather than admit they were wrong. In the end the allies largely stopped trying for industrial bottlenecks, the Harris Panacea Targets, oil for Wehrmacht mobility an exception, and concentrated on knocking out the transport links. The big rail marshalling yards tended to be well within city limits as the rail system had allowed the city growth, many of the key industries tended to be the more modern ones and more located on the city fringes.
Thanks to the rise of electronics sometime in the second half of 1944 the night attacks started to be on average more accurate than the day ones, dropping bigger bombs and staying over target longer which suppressed damage control, making them more long term damaging. Remarkable how much of the shorthand of the bomber campaign simplifies things.
The thousand bomber raid on Cologne in May 1942 actually had three aiming points, one was basically the centre of the built up area, the other two on the fringes, near rail junctions, they were outside the Hohenstaufen Hollenzollern "ring road". Listed as city strike.
On 13 October 1944 the 8th and Bomber Command were ordered to undertake operation Hurricane, a demonstration of a short term maximum effort allied air power against targets in the Ruhr. This seems to be the explanation of the 8th mainly hitting targets around Cologne on the 14th, 15th, 17th and 18th of October. Bomber Command hit Duisberg on the 14th, a daylight raid of over 1,000 aircraft and then again that night with another 1,000 aircraft raid, overall nearly 9,000 tons of bombs hit Duisberg within 24 hours, or around 20% of Bomber Commands bomb tonnage dropped against towns in the month. All up that 24 hours was the largest effort made by Bomber Command on any day in the war, with 10,050 tons of bombs dropped.
The actual number of NA-73 lost in transit to the UK is around 20. In digging through all the various source documentation on losses for NA-73 Mustang I from the USA to the UK, there is contradiction between figures in original documentation in the exact number lost and which airframes were lost, but it keeps coming out on average around 20.
I do not have the individual aircraft cards, I do have the RAF Serial Registers and British Import Reports. Four from UK to USSR AG348, AG352 to 354
From the first order of 320, 21 lost en route to UK: AG370-373, AG406-410, 428, 429, 434, 436, 440, 448, 468, 473, 480, 481, 483, 501, but AG406 assumed lost at sea, serial register entry ambiguous
AG370 to 373 SOC 16 Dec 41
AG406 to 410 SOC 23 Dec 41 (AG406 entry ambiguous, at Speke 30 Jan 42?)
AG428, 429, 434, 436, 440, 448, 468, 473, 480, 481, 483, 501 SOC 17 Feb 42
Imports were 691 mark I and 50 mark II, mark I/Ia orders were 320+300+150, total 770, less 58 Ia retained by US and 21 lost at sea is 691.
For the first order all 320 acceptances finished in March 1942, final 2 deliveries and exports in May. Second order, all 300 acceptances March to July 1942, with 1 delivery in August making 298 deliveries, then 1 delivery in January and the final 1 in June 1943, which match the single imports reported in February and July 1943. The mark II arrived June/July, the first mark III in September 1943.
This is a complicated discussion.
Yes things kept changing often rapidly.
Just before AWPD-1 delivered in Sept 1941, USAAC FM-1-15 "Tactics and Techniques of Air Fighting" led by the same key contributor Muir Fairchild. The basic tenant was that a primary mission of the Air Forces was to 'Destroy the Hostile Air Forces Freedom of the Air". The re-prioritized Emmons Board 'to-do' list placed the 1500mi range singe engine fighter as number one for FY42 Developments. That said, there was a key statement made in AWPD-1, namely "It is unwise to neglect the development of escort fighters designed to enable bombardment formations to fight through to their objective".
Yes, no one came out and said give up on escorts but did either say or imply keep going and see anyway, for me AWPD-1 translated part of this into self defending bombers, while AWPD-42 seems to have cut the required escort range from B-29 to B-17, then later came the shorter range of the B-17 in Europe using 8th Air Force tactics.
I would cite the Slessor arrangement arising from ABC conversations Jan-Mar 1941, followed by the Arcadia Conference between FDR and Churchill Dec/Jan 1942 as reference. From Huston (American Airpower Comes of Age) -- "it called for Britain to retain all the output from her own production, all US produced aircraft from their orders in process, all French orders, an allocation from continuing US production as well as the 'entire output, from any new expansion. If America drawn in the war new US capacity would be split 50-50".
As far as I know in 1941 the US did not desire any British aircraft, I have no idea of the month to month status, one book claims as of 1 December 1940, 2,100 US aircraft delivered to British out of 23,000 on order. One point at this stage British tended to be the Empire, as time went on the dominions part started to order for themselves.
March 1941 effectively predates Lend Lease which means Britain was paying cash for the orders, the allocation sounds Lend Lease, the take any extra is a remarkable bid. I would like to know what the US was projecting as the 1942 output, if the usual it would be optimistic. 1940 had seen the upheaval of France dropping out, 1941 saw lend Lease, then December saw a lot of assumptions proven incorrect.
The underlying issue was that ALL of the allocations were new US aircraft, approximately 5 percent for B-17/B-24, and 8 percent of Transport. I don't remember the A-20, B-25 etc. allocation but it was high.
I assume high in terms of percentage of production.
Coupled with the attrition in growth was the pressure to subordinate US rmy and Navy to British Command. "You provide the resources, we'll run the operations. Run along littel boy". was the perceived attitudes that Marshall, Arnold and King experienced.
I can understand that, the we are number 1 attitude, the Americans faced a command now over 2 years into a war, the US was theory, and would learn the gap in Casablanca, they were much less prepared and so the "British view" prevailed. Even though Eisenhower was in charge in the MTO. I assume there was also the apprehension FDR was giving anything the British asked for.
The committed allocation pointed to RAF and Coastal Command receiving 31% of total 1942 US tactical airplane production.
Putting the USN to one side that seems about right for the actual combat operations in 1942. The US point of view would prefer more investment in US units turning up 1943. One of the British complaints was the US kept underestimating the effort needed to keep up front line strength.
Coastal Command was taking the bulk of B-17 and B-24 allocations,
B-17 definitely, end February 1943, Coastal Command had 44 B-24, there were 30 more in reserve etc. in Britain, 11 en route from US to either Britain or overseas, 20 being assembled in Britain, another 13 with BOAC, 13 in Middle East, 21 in India, 21 in Canada, total 173, losses put at 40 in Britain, 23 overseas. This includes what the US called LB-30 etc.
Also Coastal Command wanted 500 PBY from USN but Tower/King were able to reduce that allocation to less than 100 later.
That sort of puts the Cinderella Command at the ball dripping in jewels. PBY production in 1941 was 395, and 729 in 1942. I cannot find anything about an order for 500 in the USN production reports. Order 88477 LL from 30 June 1941 ended up as 60 USN, 90 Empire, the supplement dated 19 December was 75 for Empire, after that British PBY were offsets from USN orders. Also no idea where the 500 PBY were intended to go but I suspect it includes RCAF and RAAF aircraft at least.
First Chin turret delivered on modified B-17F as YB 40, operational in July.
Did not think of the YB-40, Richard Davis idea of combat record,
29-May-43 St. Nazaire 7 sorties.
22-Jun-43 Huls 11 sorties, 1 loss.
25-Jun-43 Misc., Ge 4 sorties.
28-Jun-43 St. Nazaire 6 sorties.
04-Jul-43 Nantes 3 sorties.
10-Jul-43 Caen/Carpiquet 3 sorties.
24-Jul-43 Heroya 1 sortie.
26-Jul-43 Hannover/Nordhafen 1 sortie.
28-Jul-43 Kassel/Bettenhausen/Fieseler 2 sorties.
29-Jul-43 Kiel 1 sortie.
16-Aug-43 Le Bourget 1 sortie.
I think the 327th squadron of 92nd Bomb Group had YB-40 added around 8 May 1943 and removed in July, but the above says some YB-40 were around in August.
IIRC the movement of the 2nd BD B-24s began in May 1943. 8th AF operational bombers were entirely B-17 until the first of four B-24 groups went operational (again) on 2 October. Three by October 8th and all four by 9 October but none flew the second strike at Schweinfurt on the 14th. Our sources (mine:Freeman) could differ.
My in theory daily 8th AF OOB, based on sources including Freeman, has 2 operational and 1 non operational B-24 groups on 11 June, down to 1+1 on 25 June, 0+1 on 27 June, 0 in early? July, back up to 1 non operational on 1 August, 2 on the 24th, 4 on the 26th, 3+1 on 8th September, 4 on the 9th, to 3 on the 17th, 1 on the 19th, back to 2 on 2nd October, 3 on the 3rd, 4 on the 4th, stayed that way until 4th November when 2 new non operational groups arrived in Britain.
Spaatz joined Eisenhower in posing that 8th move to Italy in summer 1943.
Odd, Italy only became available in September, and it was further away from most of Germany. Sounds at least partly empire building, or believing they were headed to the Alps by end of year.
The CAS branch of Military Requirements embraced the A-36, P-51A and P-51B as close air support/battlefield air superiority, while most of the other senior leaders picked sides and championed the P-47 and P-38.
Almost like RAF Army Co-operation, sounds like the relevant commanders pitched for what they had a good chance of getting while trying to avoid the older types, while the majority went with we agree with the official program, in house is best.
Before I bow out, I wish to thank you publicly for the Major contributions you made to my new book!
Thanks, I think, not quite sure what I did but I will take it, let me know when the book is published so I can figure things out.