That's quite the narrow and limited metric you have there.
Yes or no:
1) Did the Japanese have more or fewer fleet carriers at the end of 42?
2) Did the Japanese have more or fewer trained aviators for those fleet carriers?
3) Did the Japanese have more or fewer battlecruisers by the end of 42?
4) Did the Japanese have any successful campaign in the Pacific after June of 1942 when they captured the Aleutians?
After Stalingrad, the Germans had more territory than at the start of Fall Blau ... but no one would claim that for that reason they were "winning." You metric is narrowly carved -- cherry-picking deployed to rescue a weak point.