Japanese Versus American Victory Claims (5 Viewers)

[GrauGeist]

If you want to see an indepth validation of Allied and Axis claims, look for research by Jerry Crandall (who recently passed). His research into claims of both sides is exhaustive and some of the most accurate to be found anywhere.

 

[Squish]

This is very helpful info!

Is the comparison of luftwaffe claims to USAAF B-17/24 losses looking at total USAAF B-17/24 combat/operational losses or only those that the Americans specifically noted were lost to enemy fighters?

Because if total combat/operational losses, we run into the problem of effectively assuming, e.g., flak was completely ineffective. Which we know was far from the truth.

The US SBS has a table that quantities the ratio of bombers lost to fighters for the 8th Air Force. Off the top of my head, the percent of losses to fighters peaked around August (was basically 100% of attributed losses) and then significantly declined starting in Dec. 1943.

One could probably extrapolate those figures and determine total losses attributed to Flak vs Fighters but the ratio is probably 60-65% in favor of Flak; mainly due to the impact of escort fighters, and the fact that the 8th AF in 1944 was exponentially larger in 1944 than in 1943.

 

[GregP]

If you want to see an indepth validation of Allied and Axis claims, look for research by Jerry Crandall (who recently passed). His research into claims of both sides is exhaustive and some of the most accurate to be found anywhere.

Any particular titles, GrauGeist? I'm definitely interested.

 

[Geoffrey Sinclair]

The 2 to 1 (B-17) and 1.8 to 1 (B-24) ratio of Luftwaffe claims to actual losses is exactly that, 2 Luftwaffe claims for every 1 B-17 the USAAF reports lost to fighters, 1.8 to 1 B-24.

David Osborne created a listing of B-17 histories and fates, FORTLOG.DOC which used to be available online and used in the book The B-17 Flying Fortress Story by Roger A. Freeman and David Osborne. Using that and other references like web sites and B-24 books a list of 8th Air Force heavy bomber losses was created, the B-17 are near complete the B-24 list is missing some, mostly combat write offs and non combat losses. This gives the heavy bomber losses on known combat sorties as
17 Aphrodite
390 Battle Damage
289 Collision
119 Crash
215 Flak & Fighter
1,893 Fighter
2,003 Flak
44 Friendly Fire
100 Fuel Starvation
1 Icing
130 Landing Accident
287 Mechanical Failure
57 On Ground (Poltava mostly)
96 Take off Accident
34 Taxi Accident
15 Unknown
5,690 Total, plus another 556 on non combat sorties

Ignoring the lost on ground and non combat sorties, losses come to 4,518 lost to combat (Aphrodite, battle damage, flak, fighter), 1,115 to non combat, total 5,633 with 14 losses on unknown type sorties excluded.

The USAAF Statistical Digest says on combat sorties, 2,452 lost to fighters, 2,439 to flak, 657 to other causes, total 5,548, or 85 less. 8th Air Force Heavy Bomber losses, percentage by cause, statistical digest figures.

Since the latest forum software update copying data in from a spreadsheet looks quite well while creating the message, then becomes a scrambled mess during the posting process, so a listing rather than tabulation.

In Sep-42, 100 Fighter, 0 Flak, 0 Other.
In Oct-42, 80 Fighter, 0 Flak, 20 Other.
In Nov-42, 76.92 Fighter, 0 Flak, 23.08 Other.
In Dec-42, 100 Fighter, 0 Flak, 0 Other.
In Jan-43, 100 Fighter, 0 Flak, 0 Other.
In Feb-43, 91.3 Fighter, 0 Flak, 8.7 Other.
In Mar-43, 85.71 Fighter, 0 Flak, 14.29 Other.
In Apr-43, 96.55 Fighter, 3.45 Flak, 0 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 28 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.04 to 1.
In May-43, 69.57 Fighter, 18.84 Flak, 11.59 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 3.69 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.27 to 1.
In Jun-43, 86.67 Fighter, 13.33 Flak, 0 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 6.5 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.15 to 1.
In Jul-43, 66.95 Fighter, 24.58 Flak, 8.47 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 2.72 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.37 to 1.
In Aug-43, 74.36 Fighter, 17.09 Flak, 8.55 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 4.35 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.23 to 1.
In Sep-43, 46.94 Fighter, 25.51 Flak, 27.55 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 1.84 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.54 to 1.
In Oct-43, 74.73 Fighter, 20.43 Flak, 4.84 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 3.66 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.27 to 1.
In Nov-43, 55.79 Fighter, 26.32 Flak, 17.89 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 2.12 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.47 to 1.
In Dec-43, 49.42 Fighter, 37.79 Flak, 12.79 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 1.31 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.76 to 1.
In Jan-44, 68.47 Fighter, 13.3 Flak, 18.23 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 5.15 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.19 to 1.
In Feb-44, 62.73 Fighter, 29.89 Flak, 7.38 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 2.1 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.48 to 1.
In Mar-44, 51.59 Fighter, 32.46 Flak, 15.94 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 1.59 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.63 to 1.
In Apr-44, 74.76 Fighter, 25 Flak, 0.24 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 2.99 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.33 to 1.
In May-44, 56.12 Fighter, 32.45 Flak, 11.44 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 1.73 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.58 to 1.
In Jun-44, 35 Fighter, 50.63 Flak, 14.38 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.69 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 1.45 to 1.
In Jul-44, 22.73 Fighter, 57.1 Flak, 20.17 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.4 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 2.51 to 1.
In Aug-44, 18.43 Fighter, 71.9 Flak, 9.67 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.26 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 3.9 to 1.
In Sep-44, 36.63 Fighter, 55.35 Flak, 8.02 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.66 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 1.51 to 1.
In Oct-44, 20.34 Fighter, 63.28 Flak, 16.38 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.32 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 3.11 to 1.
In Nov-44, 23.92 Fighter, 69.86 Flak, 6.22 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.34 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 2.92 to 1.
In Dec-44, 23.53 Fighter, 62.18 Flak, 14.29 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.38 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 2.64 to 1.
In Jan-45, 15.61 Fighter, 70.7 Flak, 13.69 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.22 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 4.53 to 1.
In Feb-45, 7.14 Fighter, 80.1 Flak, 12.76 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.09 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 11.21 to 1.
In Mar-45, 23.68 Fighter, 61.65 Flak, 14.66 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.38 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 2.6 to 1.
In Apr-45, 37.89 Fighter, 40.53 Flak, 21.58 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.94 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 1.07 to 1.
In May-45, 14.29 Fighter, 57.14 Flak, 28.57 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.25 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 4 to 1.
In 1942, 88.1 Fighter, 0 Flak, 11.9 Other.
In 1943, 67.57 Fighter, 22.01 Flak, 10.42 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 3.07 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.33 to 1.
In 1944, 43.35 Fighter, 45.38 Flak, 11.27 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.96 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 1.05 to 1.
In 1945, 20.45 Fighter, 64.13 Flak, 15.42 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 0.32 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 3.14 to 1.
Total, 44.2 Fighter, 43.96 Flak, 11.84 Other. Fighter to flak loss Ratio, 1.01 to 1, Flak to fighter ratio, 0.99 to 1.

Percentages.

 

[bada]

Any particular titles, GrauGeist? I'm definitely interested.

Well, the name rang a bell, so i fast check and i found this page:

Western original paintings, Prints and Collectibles for Sale | Eagle Editions Ltd

Eagle Editions offers original historical western art by artist Jerry Crandall. Click to browse our extensive collection of art and collectibles.

www.eagle-editions.com

Looks like they're selling Mr Crandall collection also, for our Usa based members, there are few gems.

Military Aviation Collectibles & Western Memorabilia | Eagle Editions Ltd.

Explore Eagle Editions’ collection of aviation collectibles and western memorabilia. Rare, historically accurate pieces for collectors of WWII aviation, Native American, and Western history.

www.eagle-editions.com

otherwise, would like also to have a reference to mr Crandall's Claims List.

David Osborne created a listing of B-17 histories and fates, FORTLOG.DOC which used to be available online and used in the book The B-17 Flying Fortress Story by Roger A. Freeman and David Osborne.

17 Aphrodite

Found that Doc on the web, is this the one you refer to?

https://www.384thbombgroup.com/_content/downloads/FORTLOG.pdf

Please explain the meaning of "Aphrodite". Thank you.

 

[Greg Boeser]

Aphrodite was the American code name for pilotless radio controlled bombers used as guided missiles. The aircraft was flown to visual range of the target, the pilot bailed out and a mother ship directed the bomber toward the target. Not successful. Joseph Kennedy Jr. was killed during one training flight.

 

[Frog]

Aphrodite was the American code name for pilotless radio controlled bombers used as guided missiles. The aircraft was flown to visual range of the target, the pilot bailed out and a mother ship directed the bomber toward the target. Not successful. Joseph Kennedy Jr. was killed during one training flight.

Aphrodite involved condemned B-17s. In the case of Joseph Kennedy Jr, it was a B-24 during a similar mission called Anvil.

 

[Retattack]

I found this summary useful (and relatively easy to digest).
Statistical summary of Eighth Air Force operations: European theater, 17 Aug. 1942 - 8 May 1945
Page 61:

 

[GrauGeist]

Project Aphrodite also claimed the life of President Kennedy's older brother Joe.

As far as Jerry Crandall's claim validations go, he was working with his wife and Nick Hector on the project. I'm still in for tact with Nick via FB and am waiting to hear back from him.

 

[GrauGeist]

Aphrodite involved condemned B-17s. In the case of Joseph Kennedy Jr, it was a B-24 during a similar mission called Anvil.

Project Aphrodite used B-17s, B-24s and PB4Ys.

Project Anvil was intended for the Pacific Theater and was part of Aphrodite. Joe Kennedy was killed flying a B-24 during an Aphrodite mission when the bomb detonated before they left the English coast.

 

[Frog]

Exactly, Anvil was a US Navy counterpart of Aphrodite ; see excerpt from World War II Database (Anvil was also a codename used for what became Operation Dragoon, the landing in Southern France) :

Following the USAAF's failures, the US Navy came up with their own version of the drone. The Navy operation was codenamed Operation Anvil. This time an old PB4Y-1 Liberator bomber was stripped down and loaded with explosives. The target once more was to be Heligoland. The pilot was Lieutenant Joseph Kennedy, Jr. USN, eldest son of Joe Kennedy, the US Ambassador to Great Britain and elder brother of John "Jack" Kennedy who would become President of the United States in the future. He, like all other crew was a volunteer; a successful flight in one of the drones was rewarded with 5 mission credits and decoration for the bravery shown in crewing such a dangerous aircraft. The Liberator aircraft successfully took off from RAF Fairfield, 16 miles southwest of Norwich, following them in a USAAF F-8 Mosquito aircraft to film the mission were pilot Lieutenant Robert A. Tunnel and combat camera man Lieutenant David J. McCarthy, who filmed the event from the Perspex nose of the aircraft. As planned, Kennedy and his engineer Lieutenant Wilford John Willy remained aboard as the drone, labelled BQ-8, completed its first remote-controlled turn at 2,000 feet near the North Sea coast. Kennedy and Willy removed the safety pin, arming the explosive package, and Kennedy radioed the agreed code "Spade Flush", his last known words. Two minutes later, near RAF Manston, the Torpex explosive detonated prematurely destroying the BQ-8 Liberator drone, killing Kennedy and Willy instantly. Wreckage landed near the village of Blythburgh in Suffolk, causing widespread damage and small fires, but there were no injuries on the ground.

ww2dbaseSeveral more drone attacks would be attempted but the results were dreadful; the drones either crashed or were picked off by enemy anti-aircraft fire. Finally, Operation Aphrodite and Operation Anvil were terminated on the personal order of General Carl "Tooey" Spaatz, the US Army Air Forces commander of the Strategic Air Forces in Europe, who recognized the program as an abject failure.