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- #41
syscom3
Pacific Historian
The RAF would not be playing that big a role if luftwaffe plans were on track - also driving away the royal navy lest they suffer the fate of PoW and Repulse. Under the protection of the Luftwaffe, german shipping could have delivered supplies as well - an adequate logistical base could very well have been established. Seized airfields would in turn become bases for the Germans on British soil. They were massing hundreds of barges and other craft for their makeshift invasion fleet. It would have been an ugly amphib invasion, just as the invasion of Norway was an abomination. However, this could likely have worked if eagle day and the ensuing battle went the germans way.
Even if the Germnas did attain daytime superiority, they would still be taking loss's at night time from both the RAF and RN (MTB's would play havoc on the landing barges).
And the German logistics were predicated on taking harbors intact, which was incredibly optimistic planning. All those barges they were building were going to have poor sortie rates which would compound the logistics.
Seizing airfields? Keep in mind what happened to the Germans at Crete. High loss's almost cost them the battle. If they were going to be parachuting onto British soil, they were going to be mauled to the point of not being able to control airfields. The endurance issue for the -109 was still going to rear its ugly head when the remaining Spits and Hurricanes would take off from bases outside of fighter range and slam into the transports when the fighters had to turn back.
Also keep in mind...
1 - the invasion army would not likely have been heavy in mech or armor units - at least not initially
In 1940 and 1941, there would have been few, if any landing craft capable of putting the tanks ashore on unimproved beaches.
2 - stukas would be augmenting german divisional arty, and as usual be relied upon heavily as mobile arty batteries.
Stuka's cant cover the battlefield 24/7, and are useless at night.
I have seen interviews of British soldiers saying the supply issue post dunkirk was pretty bad - there was training going on w/o weapons and such. You can't equip Bn after Bn overnight.
By Aug 1940, it looks like the BA had recovered enough to be a credible force to reckon with. By summer 1941, they had been completely rebuilt.