wuzak
Captain
I don't mean literally they never hit a single target, but I don't think they were able to inflict significant damage on the German aircraft industry until they had escorts flying with them into the heart of Central Europe and back in 1944, and then it still took a while to show results, they were still making German planes in large numbers to the very end of 1944, and production didn't end completely until the very end of the war. They did make over 30,000 Bf 109s right? Even 1,200+ Me 262s. How many V-1s and V-2s did they make? German industry seemed to be making a lot of stuff in spite of all those tons of huge bombs being dropped all over the place.
Maybe, just maybe, German industry wasn't working at full capacity before the bombs started falling on the factories. Which meant that there was a lot of spare capacity that could be used after bombing started.
The other question is: how many aircraft could they have produced without interference from bombing?
The first big Strategic problem the Germans started having was with oil. The biggest hit from Strategic bombing was against oil refineries but that was again, mostly low-level missions and very costly, ala the Ploesti raids. The biggest effect of the Strategic bombing was one of attrition, but I think the Soviets also had a role in that as did the war in the Med.
It wasn't until mid 1943 that 8th AF numbers were big enough for a big raid into Germany. The #1 priority was ball bearing production, #2 was aircraft production.
In August the 8th AF launched the double strike mission to Schweinfurt (bearings) and Regensburg (Messerschmitt factory). Though the mission was, in many ways, a disaster, enough damage was done by the raid that production was slowed significantly. But the Germans had a stockpile of ball bearings and many applications could be redesigned to use plain bearings. Even so, German representatives were sent to Sweden to secure supply of bearings (as were the British).
A more significant effect could have been obtained had the 8th AF the numbers to mount a follow up raid within a week or two. Or if RAF Bomber Command could have hit the factories the night after (off bombing Peenumunde).
Bombing against oil facilities was not "mostly low level". The Ploesti raid in 1943 was an outlier in that regard.
Much of the Allied effort against oil targets was directed at the synthetic fuel plants. These not only produced fuels, but side products such as fertiliser and the building blocks for explosive compounds. Bombing these plants had the side effect that by the end of 1944 German munitions would sometimes be partly filled with cement dust because not enough explosive was available.