syscom3
Pacific Historian
Last week the North Koreans demanded the money as a precondition for talks but the Americans brushed off their protest.
Kim told Hu Jintao, the Chinese president in January that his government was being strangled, diplomats in the Chinese capital said. "He has warned the Chinese leaders his regime could collapse and he knows that is the last thing we want," said a Chinese source close to the foreign ministry.
The risk being assessed between Washington and Tokyo this weekend is how far Kim can be pushed against the wall before he undertakes something more lethal than last week's display of force.
The "Dear Leader" has turned North Korea into a military-dominated state to preserve his own inherited role at the apex of a Stalinist personality cult. Although he appears erratic, and North Korea's rhetoric is extreme, most diplomats who have met him think Kim is highly calculating.
"He is a very tough Korean nationalist and he knows exactly how to play the power game — very hard," said Professor Shi Yinhong, an expert in Beijing.
But the costly failure of Kim's intercontinental missile, the Taepodong 2, after just 42 seconds of flight last Wednesday, was a blow to his prestige and to the force of his deterrent. Six other short and medium-range missiles splashed into the Sea of Japan without making any serious military point.
The United States and its allies are now preoccupied by what Kim might do with the trump card in his arsenal — his stockpile of plutonium for nuclear bombs.
"The real danger is that the North Koreans could sell their plutonium to another rogue state — read Iran — or to terrorists," said a western diplomat who has served in Pyongyang. American officials fear Iran is negotiating to buy plutonium from North Korea in a move that would confound the international effort to stop Tehran's nuclear weapons programme.
The prospect of such a sale is "the next big thing", said a western diplomat involved with the issue. The White House commissioned an intelligence study on the risk last December but drew no firm conclusions.
Plutonium was the element used in the atomic bomb that destroyed Nagasaki in 1945. It would give Iran a rapid route to the bomb as an alternative to the conspicuous process of enriching uranium which is the focus of international concern.
American nuclear scientists estimate North Korea is "highly likely" to have about 43kg and perhaps as much as 53kg of the material. Between 7kg and 9kg are needed for a weapon.
Siegfried Hecker, former head of the US Los Alamos nuclear weapons laboratory, has warned that North Korea's plutonium would fit into a few suitcases and would be impossible to detect if it were sold.
For the first time since the crisis over its nuclear ambitions began in 1994, North Korea has made enough plutonium to sell a quantity to its ally while keeping sufficient for its own use.
North Korea is known to have sold 1.7 tons of uranium to Libya. It has sold ballistic missiles to Iran since the 1980s. American officials have said Iran is already exchanging missile test data for nuclear technology from Pyongyang. The exchanges probably involve flight monitoring for Scud-type rockets and techniques of uranium centrifuge operation.
Relations deepened between the two surviving regimes in Bush's "axis of evil" after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's military and scientific links with North Korea have grown rapidly.
Last November western intelligence sources told the German magazine Der Spiegel that a high-ranking Iranian official had travelled to Pyongyang to offer oil and natural gas in exchange for more co-operation on nuclear technology and ballistic missiles. Iran's foreign ministry denied the report but diplomats in Beijing and Pyongyang believe it was accurate. At the same time evidence emerged through Iranian dissidents in exile that North Korean experts were helping Iran build nuclear-capable missiles in a vast tunnel complex under the Khojir and Bar Jamali mountains near Tehran.
So while one nation, North Korea, boasts of its nuclear weapons and the other, Iran, denies wanting them at all, the world is on edge. If the stakes are high in the nuclear terror game, they are equally high for the balance of power in Asia and thus for global prosperity.
North Korea's aggressive behaviour and a record of kidnapping Japanese citizens have created new willpower among politicians in Tokyo to strengthen their military forces. To China, Japan's wartime adversary, that signals a worrying change in the strategic equation. Nationalism in both countries is on the rise. Relations between the two are at their worst for decades.
One scenario is that Japan abandons its pacifist doctrine and becomes a nuclear weapons power. "The Japanese people are very angry and very worried and, right now, they will accept any government plan for the military," said Tetsuo Maeda, professor of defence studies at Tokyo International University.
Kim told Hu Jintao, the Chinese president in January that his government was being strangled, diplomats in the Chinese capital said. "He has warned the Chinese leaders his regime could collapse and he knows that is the last thing we want," said a Chinese source close to the foreign ministry.
The risk being assessed between Washington and Tokyo this weekend is how far Kim can be pushed against the wall before he undertakes something more lethal than last week's display of force.
The "Dear Leader" has turned North Korea into a military-dominated state to preserve his own inherited role at the apex of a Stalinist personality cult. Although he appears erratic, and North Korea's rhetoric is extreme, most diplomats who have met him think Kim is highly calculating.
"He is a very tough Korean nationalist and he knows exactly how to play the power game — very hard," said Professor Shi Yinhong, an expert in Beijing.
But the costly failure of Kim's intercontinental missile, the Taepodong 2, after just 42 seconds of flight last Wednesday, was a blow to his prestige and to the force of his deterrent. Six other short and medium-range missiles splashed into the Sea of Japan without making any serious military point.
The United States and its allies are now preoccupied by what Kim might do with the trump card in his arsenal — his stockpile of plutonium for nuclear bombs.
"The real danger is that the North Koreans could sell their plutonium to another rogue state — read Iran — or to terrorists," said a western diplomat who has served in Pyongyang. American officials fear Iran is negotiating to buy plutonium from North Korea in a move that would confound the international effort to stop Tehran's nuclear weapons programme.
The prospect of such a sale is "the next big thing", said a western diplomat involved with the issue. The White House commissioned an intelligence study on the risk last December but drew no firm conclusions.
Plutonium was the element used in the atomic bomb that destroyed Nagasaki in 1945. It would give Iran a rapid route to the bomb as an alternative to the conspicuous process of enriching uranium which is the focus of international concern.
American nuclear scientists estimate North Korea is "highly likely" to have about 43kg and perhaps as much as 53kg of the material. Between 7kg and 9kg are needed for a weapon.
Siegfried Hecker, former head of the US Los Alamos nuclear weapons laboratory, has warned that North Korea's plutonium would fit into a few suitcases and would be impossible to detect if it were sold.
For the first time since the crisis over its nuclear ambitions began in 1994, North Korea has made enough plutonium to sell a quantity to its ally while keeping sufficient for its own use.
North Korea is known to have sold 1.7 tons of uranium to Libya. It has sold ballistic missiles to Iran since the 1980s. American officials have said Iran is already exchanging missile test data for nuclear technology from Pyongyang. The exchanges probably involve flight monitoring for Scud-type rockets and techniques of uranium centrifuge operation.
Relations deepened between the two surviving regimes in Bush's "axis of evil" after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's military and scientific links with North Korea have grown rapidly.
Last November western intelligence sources told the German magazine Der Spiegel that a high-ranking Iranian official had travelled to Pyongyang to offer oil and natural gas in exchange for more co-operation on nuclear technology and ballistic missiles. Iran's foreign ministry denied the report but diplomats in Beijing and Pyongyang believe it was accurate. At the same time evidence emerged through Iranian dissidents in exile that North Korean experts were helping Iran build nuclear-capable missiles in a vast tunnel complex under the Khojir and Bar Jamali mountains near Tehran.
So while one nation, North Korea, boasts of its nuclear weapons and the other, Iran, denies wanting them at all, the world is on edge. If the stakes are high in the nuclear terror game, they are equally high for the balance of power in Asia and thus for global prosperity.
North Korea's aggressive behaviour and a record of kidnapping Japanese citizens have created new willpower among politicians in Tokyo to strengthen their military forces. To China, Japan's wartime adversary, that signals a worrying change in the strategic equation. Nationalism in both countries is on the rise. Relations between the two are at their worst for decades.
One scenario is that Japan abandons its pacifist doctrine and becomes a nuclear weapons power. "The Japanese people are very angry and very worried and, right now, they will accept any government plan for the military," said Tetsuo Maeda, professor of defence studies at Tokyo International University.