No Il-2 Sturmovik?

[tomo pauk]

In other words, a scenario where Soviets do not opt for an 1-engine armored attack aircraft for the 1940s. The Su-2, Pe-2 etc still get built.
In what kind of aircraft they might invest the resources instead, for the job of attacking enemy ground troops? Make a fighter-bomber around either M-82 or Mikulin's engines? More Pe-2s and/or Su-2s? Armored fighter with a 23mm and then a 37mm gun in the nose? Turn the western fighters into attackers once available? Something else?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Pe-2s would be my best guess. Maybe they ask for LL P-38s?

 

[tomo pauk]

I'm not sure that P-38s were ever an LL item. Pe-2 is a good choice IMO.

A table showing price and manhours required for Il-2 and some other A/C, for 1941 and 1943, from 'the TsAGI book':

 

[Dimlee]

More Su-2 in 1941 and in 1942.
Provide Sukhoi with enough resources and authority to complete the trials of Su-6 with the M-71F engine as soon as possible. Begin Su-6 production at the end of 1942. 23 mm cannons, no 37 mm - unless there are pilots who can provide acceptable accuracy.
And if M-71F goes into mass production, there is no reason to mothball I-185. Double profit.

Consider Su-8 as a successor from 1944 and on.
Or order P-47s earlier and let experienced fighter bomber pilots test them to understand the Jug's real potential.
(In real life, they were flown and disapproved by professional test pilots with little combat experience. The Navy air force has run its own trials with various bomb loads and was satisfied, but it was at the end of 1944).

Interesting option: Ta-3. However, the project was doomed without Vsevolod Tairov who was killed in the accident.

Beaufighters... But British will hardly have spare capacity?

 

[tomo pauk]

Interesting option: Ta-3. However, the project was doomed without Vsevolod Tairov who was killed in the accident.

The Ta-3 is certainly an interesting thing. Not too small, not too big, and being a 2-engined job it lends itself for an easier installation of guns' armament.

Consider Su-8 as a successor from 1944 and on.
Or order P-47s earlier and let experienced fighter bomber pilots test them to understand the Jug's real potential.
(In real life, they were flown and disapproved by professional test pilots with little combat experience. The Navy air force has run its own trials with various bomb loads and was satisfied, but it was at the end of 1944).

If the M-71 engines can be had, I'd loath to use two of them on a single aircraft of tactical use.
The P-47 suggestion makes a lot of sense.
For a Soviet own fighter-bomber, we'd need a big & powerful engine on an A/C with a bigger wing area so the payload, protection and handling can be acceptable. I'd suggest the airframe of the I-200 series of fighters (wing area of 220-245 sq ft), with either M-82, M-71 (make those instead of M-88 series) or AM-38, two 23mm cannons + two UBs + rockets or PTAB.
How about a P-40 in an attack role?
I'd certainly try and use the 37mm-armed Lagg-3 in greater quantities for the ground-attack role, provided some armor protection can be wrapped around the radiator.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm not sure that P-38s were ever an LL item.

I don't think they were put on offer by the US, but without other cheap options I don't think Stalin would have qualms at least asking for some.

I bet those Soviets coulda hung more ordnance on the bastard earlier, too.

 

[tomo pauk]

More Su-2 in 1941 and in 1942.

I know you're a fan
Looking a bit about Su-2, seems like it have had favorable sortie vs. loss rate, if not the most favorable between the Soviet bombers/attackers. link (in Russian, can be translated)
The Il-2 seem to be the worst - 19 sorties per loss, vs. 80 for Su-2?! link

To anyone: how efficient the Su-2 actually was in it's job, that was to attack enemy ground forces close and at the front-line? Also, looking at the prices and man-hours table posted above, the 1-engined Il-2 certainly offered the means to swamp the Germans on a dime and on time. Plausible upgrade(s) to the Su-2 line before going to an all-new aircraft?

 

[Dimlee]

I know you're a fan
Looking a bit about Su-2, seems like it have had favorable sortie vs. loss rate, if not the most favorable between the Soviet bombers/attackers. link (in Russian, can be translated)
The Il-2 seem to be the worst - 19 sorties per loss, vs. 80 for Su-2?! link

To anyone: how efficient the Su-2 actually was in it's job, that was to attack enemy ground forces close and at the front-line? Also, looking at the prices and man-hours table posted above, the 1-engined Il-2 certainly offered the means to swamp the Germans on a dime and on time. Plausible upgrade(s) to the Su-2 line before going to an all-new aircraft?

I am. Full disclosure: I'm a bit of an "Il-2 hater" as well, since that aircraft was overhyped and unjustifiably (in my opinion) glorified in the Soviet literature for decades. And his designer Sergey Ilyushin spent time and resources in intensive lobbying of his not-so-perfect creature instead of doing something more creative.

About losses.
There are several data sets and tables similar to the one you mentioned. So far, none of them covered the full period of Su-2 combat service across all units. Usually, it's about one regiment or division and several months. For example, from another article by Dmitry Khazanov, sorties per loss:
Pe-2 32
SB-2 08
Su-2 71
Based on records of the 66th AD in 1941 and with an important note: most Su-2 sorties were in October when LW opposition in that area (SW Front) became somewhat weaker.
Source: Су-2 на фронтах Великой Отечественной
Still, the data available are mostly in Su-2's favor.

 

[tomo pauk]

A consequence of no Il-2 in the SU is that Mikulin engines are still available for the MiG-3 production (even if the engine is AM-38), and possibly for the ANT-58 ('aircraft 103') - the predecessor of Tu-2.