Revisiting Breaking out the Aerial Victories

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GregP

Major
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Jul 28, 2003
Chino, California, U.S.A.
Hi Everyone,

Recently, a link was posted to Naval Aviation Combat Statistics for WWII. A lot has been written in here about the numbers, but they are the best numbers we have for the USA. and the USA is the only country that did a study of aerial combat claims after WWII was over. For me, Study 85 gives the best USAAF numbers (even though the file cannot be read by a computer) and the Navy document above is also the best for those services.

It is generally accepted that the F6F Hellcat shot down 5,163 enemy aircraft in combat while losing 270 to enemy aircraft, for a combat kill ratio of 19+:1. Most people don't really look at the document, but we lost another 553 Hellcats to AAA, 340 to operational combat losses (ran out of fuel, engine failure, etc), 413 on ship or ground not while in combat, and 885 on other flights (such as repositioning, ferry flights, maintenance test flights, etc.). Total losses in combat were 1,163. Total non-combat losses were 1,298.

Interestingly, in that same document, go look at Table 28. It gives a breakout of the main fighter versus the Japanese by individual aircraft type.

For instance, the Hellcat against the A6M Zeke / Hamp shot down 1,000 and lost 75 (ratio is 13.3 : 1). The F4U/FG Corsair against the same opponent is 327 kills versus 27 losses (ratio is 8.8 : 1). It is broken out by a lot of aircraft (though they DO group the SB2C and TBM together). Overall, the Hellcat against the Japanese shot down 3,518 against 160 losses to enemy aircraft (ratio is 22 : 1) while the Corsair killed 1,042 against 49 losses (ratio is 21.3 : 1). So, overall, they are just about even in combat versus Japanese aircraft.

Again overall, the Hellcat had 2,461 total losses (combat and non-combat) in 66,530 sorties while the Corsair had 1,624 losses in 64,051 sorties. Hellcat loss per sortie is 1.75% and Corsair loss per sorties is 1.2% if all losses are looked at. To me, it says a LOT more about what the individual aircraft assignment were than about anything else. Any way you cut it, their overall loss ratio is very close to even and the overall enemy aircraft combat kill ratio favors the Hellcat by about 50% (19 : 1 versus 11 : 1). I put that down to opportunity. It looks to me like the main combats were fought mostly with Hellcat and the Marines flew the Corsairs in mostly mop-up assignments after the main combat assault was done, and the Marines DID get main assault assignments, but there was a lot of ground attack against enemy troops in there that Hellcats saw a lot less of.

Not really making a statement as much as calling attention to Table 28. Table 29 shows the F4U was used something like 25 times more against targets than for combat CAP, so it WOULD get less chances against enemy planes.

These tables and more are worth looking at and should generate a LOT of discussion. What do you guys think?
 
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These figures are based on claimed victories which were wildly inflated.
 
these figures are based on a study done after the war where the claims were vetted by a panel. There is no other country that did that, so you have either claims for all other countries or the USAAF and USN studies done after the war trying to sort them out by a panel of pilots at the time.

So, you either use the numbers against each other or ignore aerial victories. The numbers are all we have. There is no other alternate set of numbers anywhere.
 
these figures are based on a study done after the war where the claims were vetted by a panel. There is no other country that did that

The RAF did a review of claims postwar and cut numbers considerably, I would imagine the Commonwealth air forces did the same. Cant remember exact figures but iirc the number of claims by the RAF over Europe were cut by something like 40%.
 
I hope you are right. If they did, I've never come across the revised list anywhere in 50 years of looking for it.

Or, if I did, it wasn't identified as such. I have found occasionally some very good-looking lists, but with no verifiable origin. Tempted as I was to save them, an unknown source means, at least to me, data of unknown truth and I pretty much ignore it.

But I WOULD like to find it if it exists as you say. I have no information to the contrary, so I hope you are correct and it a source I can find and obtain. You wouldn't happen to have an author, title and publisher or a URL, would you?

Cheers.
 
I cant remember where I came across the report I think it was in a publication by the RAF Historical Society. Sorry its not much help but I didnt take much notice of it as it wasnt what I was interested in at the time it was just an interesting factoid that has stuck in my head.
 
Boy, do I understand.

I've been saving aviation data and interesting facts for decades. After that time, the original sources are a bit mixed up in my mind. I'll see what I can find at the RAF Historical Society, and thank you for the nice lead to a new place to look.

Cheers!
 

It's not reliable information especially for japanese data, it's based on action reports.

In many cases, US pilots misidentified the type of bandits, number of engaged enemy a/c & destroyed enemy a/c.

For example, case of between 343rd Kokutai and US Corsairs.

The 343rd Kokutai was a unique organisation within the IJNAF as it was an 'elite' unit formed by Capt Minoru Genda and staffed in the main by veteran pilots handpicked by him and his immediate subordinates.

According to 'Genda's Blade - Japans Squadron of Aces 343 Kokutai' by Henry Sakaida & Koji Takaki : www.scribd.com/doc/157684581/Gendas-Blade-Japans-Squadron-of-Aces-343-Kokutai

Both sides clashed in following battles,


19 March 1945, VBF-10 and VMF-123


12 April 1945, VMF-112


2 June 1945, VF-85 and VBF-85


22 June 1945, VMF-113


2 July 1945, VMF-224 and VMF-311



24 July 1945, VBF-1

fighter of 343rd Kokutai was N1K, but in the US action reports, most case, it's identified A6M, J2M, Ki-44, Ki-61 and Ki-87.

Also number of the engaged and destroyed enemy a/c is inaccurate in reports.

Because japanese data in report is not cross-validated.

The actual kill-ross ratio for both overall and individual types is not optained in 'Naval Aviation Combat Statistics'.

So, the story based on it does not have much meaning without proof.
 
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Here is the problem as I see it. The numbers claimed as shot down greatly exceed the numbers actually admitted by the side on the receiving end. US claims are particularly bad compared to confirmed enemy losses based on the post war amalgamation of data. German claims on the eastern front are probably the second worst.

If you add up the claims made against Japanese forces by the US, you come up with a figure that is at least 50% over the total losses that could be suffered in the air by the Japanese. Add to that more than half of those losses were inflicted in the last year of the war, inflicted on aircraft flying suicide missions of one type or another, and the rosy picture of US supremacy really starts to wilt badly.

Putting the shoe on the other foot. US losses to all causes in the first 1.5 years of the PTO exceeded IJN and IJA losses in that same period by a significant margin.

by far the best method of comparing losses is not to rely on claims, but to study own losses, and then separately try and find out what enemy admitted losses were. not easy, not even always possible.

Just to really make it interesting, not everyone knew, or admitted truthfully as to their own losses. Japanese for example, would assume aircraft had staged to another base, but in reality they were losses , sometimes lost due to range issues, sometimes lost to navigation errors, sometimes shot out of the sky.

You dod the best you can with known data sets, and rely on claims as a last resort, not like some stone tablet sent down to you from the temple mount.
 
Comments on aircraft recognition are well taken. I was acquainted with a couple of hundred aces, and the AAF guys were especially forthcoming about ID problems. A seven-victory P-38 pilot said, "If it was a single-engine retractible gear, we usually called it a Zero." I inferred that some units' intel officers succeeded in narrowing the scope, but at the time it was not a high priority.
 
US and Japan historians did joint research about pacific war and published some books. And... AFAIK that kill ratio records of USNAF are unilateral claims.

For example, 12 oct 1943 to 19 feb 1944 in rabaul, IJNAS lost 309 aircraft include 221 Zero and lost 164 pilots.(General Kusaka Zinichi(Commander of 11st Air fleet.) Report it to US military at 1946.) At same period Allied forces lost 236 aircrafts include 166 aircrafts lost in air combat. Detail information of that 166 aircrafts is "57 F4U, 39 P-38, 21 F6F, 19 P40, 8 TBF, 8 B-25, 7 B-24, 5 SBD, 1 SB2C, 1 Beaufighter".

You can find more informations in these book series.

Amazon product ASIN 4499231205View: https://www.amazon.co.jp/%E6%B5%B7%E8%BB%8D%E9%9B%B6%E6%88%A6%E9%9A%8A%E6%92%83%E5%A2%9C%E6%88%A6%E8%A8%982-%E6%98%AD%E5%92%8C18%E5%B9%B48%E6%9C%88-11%E6%9C%88%E3%80%81%E3%83%96%E3%82%A4%E3%83%B3%E9%98%B2%E7%A9%BA%E6%88%A6%E3%81%A8%E3%80%81%E5%89%8D%E6%9C%9F%E3%83%A9%E3%83%90%E3%82%A6%E3%83%AB%E9%98%B2%E7%A9%BA%E6%88%A6-%E6%A2%85%E6%9C%AC-%E5%BC%98/dp/4499231205/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1440241223&sr=1-3&keywords=%E9%9B%B6%E6%88%A6%E6%92%83%E5%A2%9C%E6%88%A6%E8%A8%98


I didn't have these books and I cannot read japanese but some of my friends translated some part of it for me.
 
I think you are looking for factual events in WWII. The claims files are not all correct, but they are all we have. As stated above, you cannot find real losses in many cases, and only the USA did a post-war study of claims, unless the UK did, too, and I have not found it yet. I'm hoping to find it yet.

So, I have to stand by what I said earlier. Either you use the numbers we have or you have nothing to compare for most of the victories and losses we know about. When someone comes up with all the real losses, we could use those, for sure, but we can't even agree what a "loss" was. There are numerous threads about this.

To me, if you shoot an enemy aircraft out of a battle, it is an aerial victory, period. You did your job, correctly.

To others, unless the enemy aircraft was totally destroyed, and verified as such, it isn't. That is "idealistic," to put it politely.

Personally, I don't care if the enemy aircraft was repaired or partially recovered for spare parts. If it got shot out of battle, it is a victory. Had the commanders in WWII, or in any current or future war, for that matter, required complete destruction and verification of same to get a victory, then EVERYONE would leave their assignments and chase the victory all the way to the ground. You cannot ask people to verify complete destruction and still maintain an escort or mission at the same time --- they do one or the other, but not both. You can't complete your work assignment and pick up your kid at soccer at the same time (back then, anyway), you do one or the other.

People who are worrying about how the claims add up will always be pursuing a dream that is noble, but unattainable. If they don't know the numbers by now, they never will. Use the numbers or don't use 'em. I'm NOT going to use USA losses against German claims for an analysis. I'll use claims or losses, IF we have the losses for both sides of a comparison. If we don't, we have to use the same set of numbers for both sides of a comparison or we don't HAVE a comparison, we have a contrast instead. You can contrast all you want and you won't get a valid conclusion about a comparison.

Would we all like to see 100% accurate numbers? Of course. Will we ever? No. There is simply no way to get them all.

I'll use the end-of-WWII aerial victory number and dismiss the rest since we have no alternative numbers to use. I'll use the revised victory lists, such as Boyington's lower modern scores, when ALL the pilot scores have been awarded the same scrutiny as Colonel Boyington's were, only WAY after the war, and only when Joe Foss was running for Governor of South Dakota and his friends wanted him to be the top ace of the war for the Navy / Marines as a political campaign claim. They seem to have gotten their way with some people, at the expense of Colonel Boyington. But nobody seems to notice that nobody else got the same review by biased people with a political agenda.

At the same time, everyone is free to do their own comparisons, and come up with their own conclusions. I'd say they are valid conclusions if and only if ALL the numbers you use are awarded the same attention for accuracy. If you let ANY set of number go as found in some record, without verification, you should use them ALL that way, or your conclusions are classically flawed. You can always make any conclusion you want if some of your data are fabricated.

Numbers don't lie ... unless they do. If so, the conclusions taken from the numbers maybe aren't true, and definitely are at least in question. Cheers.
 
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And in that book they concluded with cross-validation that Corsair shot down the most Zeros, and considered best and main fighter of the allied air force by Japanese commanders.

But the IJN loss figures for Zero and casualties were not included in the 1946 report, just stated overall loss and no specific casualties for air-combat in report.

Detailed figure seems to be based on cross-validation after long times.

In addition, it was not a report of Admiral Kusaka alone, with Admiral Irifune, Commander Hori and Lt Commander Watabe at the same time.

The part of the original 1946 report for that, is follows.

Most of the content is included in above linked book, but it is easy to access because it is an English document.

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IJN a/c losses


IJN claims


IJN considered

Best for AA and ships : SDB Dauntless
Best for AF and parked a/c : B-25 Mitchell
Best for Aviation equipment & fuel : Daisy cutter Bomb
Best Fighter : F4U Corsair

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And IJA's report also included.

Reported by General Imamura, Lt General Kato and Captain Iwanaga.


IJA losses


IJA considered

Best for AF and facilities : B-25 Mitchell
Best for AA and ships : SDB Dauntless
Best Bomber : B-24 Liberator
Best Bomb : Phosphorus Bomb
Best Fighter : F4U Corsair

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The reports of these Japanese commanders show Japanese view at the time.
 
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