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See the Tabulated Record of Movements over on the Combined Fleet siteI think Yamato shows up by Jan 42. I'm not sure about Musashi and you may well be right. In any event, the Brits have at least two more modern, radar-equipped BBs than Bill projects And if we're going to 43, the Brits will get Torbeaus for land-based maritime strike, and perhaps Spitfires either aboard flattops or defending shore installations.
My own opinion is that earlier in the war, the Japanese are better off, but as this hypothetical war goes on, the Brit, for many reason, gain advantages that the Japanese don't -- better fighter direction, more new ships, getting the commonwealth resources moving in, so that much like with the USA OTL, Japan needs a quick victory.
HMS Warspite says: "Hold my beer".That's a far cry from one modern BB and a bunch of oldies. With radar, weather (in SEA a major factor) and to a lesser extent night battles are more promising from the Brit angle.
Look at what DoY did to Scharnhorst in December 43, and Scharnhorst had better armor than any Japanese capital ship except the Yamatos. For the Yamatos, the Brits will be fighting two- or three-on-one (ideally), and even if 14" won't penetrate Yamato belts, those upperworks are getting shot away in a bad-weather/nighttime duel.
Carrier WarWe seem to be a little sloppy with both the time line and the actual conditions.
Granted we are juggling several scenarios.
So lets try to isolate a few things.
Carrier War
Japanese fighters (A6M) are significantly more effective than the British carrier fighters (Fulmars, Rocs, Sea Hurricanes) and significantly out-range them.
If the balloon does not go up until Dec 1941 Or give or take a few weeks) the Rocks are history. Even the British were not going to keep them around for a year and half. (last Roc Delivered in Aug 1940. A lot depends on what was going on in Europe, or not going on. Lots of butterflies. Better Sea Hurricanes?
Japanese have seaplane fighters (A6M2-N) which are also (probably) superior to British carrier fighters.
First A6M2-N prototype flew Dec 7 1941. Enough to equip a squadron show up when?
Japanese carrier strike aircraft are also vastly superior (D3A and B5N vs Skua and Swordfish) And better (?) air-launched torpedoes (?)
Also assumes that the British retain existing aircraft later than than really did. Skua's disappear from service in the summer of 1941. Several Squadrons of Albacores are in use in the summer of 1941. Torpedoes are better because they are Japanese?
torpedo......................warhead..............speed...............range
British XII......................388lbs....................40kts..............1500yds
Japanese mod1.........331lbs..................41-43...............2000m
Japanese Mod 2.......452Lbs..................."..."...................."..."
Note that the Nell's carried the mod 1s
Japanese aircraft carriers carry more aircraft (60-70 vs 40-50)
Japanese land based strike aircraft have long range and can sink enemy ships in daylight
British torpedoes don't work in daylight?
British have radar and some aircraft that can fly strikes at night with radar (Swordfish) albeit at very short range
British have Wellingtons which can also drop torpedoes at night and have very long range
British carriers have armored decks
British have Spitfire to protect airfields and Beaufighter to harass shipping
British ships have more AA and have radar guided AA and / or air search radar
Surface Sea War
Japanese have the largest and most powerful battleshps in the world (Yamato and Musashi)
Yamato doesn't show up until May of 1942, Musashi doesn't show up until Jan 1943
Japanese have (arguably) more modern battleships and battle cruisers, and better cruisers.
Very arguably, both sides have a very mixed bag of battleships and battle cruisers. Yes the R's are rather doubtful most of the rest, (Repulse aside) can hold their own
Japanese light cruisers are very effective torpedo platforms
And the British light cruisers are not?? Oh, right if, the torpedoes can't reach 0ver 30,000 meters just discount them. Are eight 24in torps worth twelve 21in torps in a close range donnybrook?
Japanese have seaplane tenders and seaplane cruisers
Japanese ship-launched torpedoes with twice the range of the British and much greater speed
Japanese have superior night training and optics
rather depends on the actual experience of the British here.
British have King George the Fifth BB,
In March of 1942 the 3rd KGV went into action
British have radar
British torpedoes work (unlike the American ones)
British have less-flash powder (unlike the Americans)
British have more ships overall, especially CL and DE / E
And we need to look at circumstances don't we? How well were the troops in Burma trained and how well were they equipped/supplied, on average. Not to mentioned the appalling lack of air cover in Burma.
You must be familiar with Admiral U. Furashita.For those not already aware there is a huge resource on all things IJN in the Combined Fleet site
We seem to be a little sloppy with both the time line and the actual conditions.
Granted we are juggling several scenarios.
So lets try to isolate a few things.
Carrier War
Japanese fighters (A6M) are significantly more effective than the British carrier fighters (Fulmars, Rocs, Sea Hurricanes) and significantly out-range them.
If the balloon does not go up until Dec 1941 Or give or take a few weeks) the Rocks are history. Even the British were not going to keep them around for a year and half. (last Roc Delivered in Aug 1940. A lot depends on what was going on in Europe, or not going on. Lots of butterflies. Better Sea Hurricanes?
Japanese have seaplane fighters (A6M2-N) which are also (probably) superior to British carrier fighters.
First A6M2-N prototype flew Dec 7 1941. Enough to equip a squadron show up when?
Japanese carrier strike aircraft are also vastly superior (D3A and B5N vs Skua and Swordfish) And better (?) air-launched torpedoes (?)
Also assumes that the British retain existing aircraft later than than really did. Skua's disappear from service in the summer of 1941. Several Squadrons of Albacores are in use in the summer of 1941. Torpedoes are better because they are Japanese?
torpedo......................warhead..............speed...............range
British XII......................388lbs....................40kts..............1500yds
Japanese mod1.........331lbs..................41-43...............2000m
Japanese Mod 2.......452Lbs..................."..."...................."..."
Note that the Nell's carried the mod 1s
Japanese aircraft carriers carry more aircraft (60-70 vs 40-50)
Japanese land based strike aircraft have long range and can sink enemy ships in daylight
British torpedoes don't work in daylight?
British have radar and some aircraft that can fly strikes at night with radar (Swordfish) albeit at very short range
British have Wellingtons which can also drop torpedoes at night and have very long range
British carriers have armored decks
British have Spitfire to protect airfields and Beaufighter to harass shipping
British ships have more AA and have radar guided AA and / or air search radar
Surface Sea War
Japanese have the largest and most powerful battleshps in the world (Yamato and Musashi)
Yamato doesn't show up until May of 1942, Musashi doesn't show up until Jan 1943
Japanese have (arguably) more modern battleships and battle cruisers, and better cruisers.
Very arguably, both sides have a very mixed bag of battleships and battle cruisers. Yes the R's are rather doubtful most of the rest, (Repulse aside) can hold their own
Japanese light cruisers are very effective torpedo platforms
And the British light cruisers are not?? Oh, right if, the torpedoes can't reach 0ver 30,000 meters just discount them. Are eight 24in torps worth twelve 21in torps in a close range donnybrook?
Japanese have seaplane tenders and seaplane cruisers
Japanese ship-launched torpedoes with twice the range of the British and much greater speed
Japanese have superior night training and optics
rather depends on the actual experience of the British here.
British have King George the Fifth BB,
In March of 1942 the 3rd KGV went into action
British have radar
British torpedoes work (unlike the American ones)
British have less-flash powder (unlike the Americans)
British have more ships overall, especially CL and DE / E
And we need to look at circumstances don't we? How well were the troops in Burma trained and how well were they equipped/supplied, on average. Not to mentioned the appalling lack of air cover in Burma.
All of the ships took several months to go on first war cruise.
Other wise all 5 would be repeating the PoW first war cruise (against the Bismarck and we know how that went)
That's a far cry from one modern BB and a bunch of oldies.
With radar, weather (in SEA a major factor) and to a lesser extent night battles are more promising from the Brit angle.
Look at what DoY did to Scharnhorst in December 43, and Scharnhorst had better armor than any Japanese capital ship except the Yamatos. For the Yamatos, the Brits will be fighting two- or three-on-one (ideally), and even if 14" won't penetrate Yamato belts, those upperworks are getting shot away in a bad-weather/nighttime duel.
Carrier War
Japanese fighters (A6M) are significantly more effective than the British carrier fighters (Fulmars, Rocs, Sea Hurricanes) and significantly out-range them.
The same can be said about the F4F-3/4 yet they fought the A6M to a draw, despite a crushing defeat now and again. The Roc is unlikely to be a carrier borne fighter in 1942.
Japanese have seaplane fighters (A6M2-N) which are also (probably) superior to British carrier fighters
Seaplane fighters were a very minor factor in the PTO.
Japanese carrier strike aircraft are also vastly superior (D3A and B5N vs Skua and Swordfish) And better (?) air-launched torpedoes (?)
The D3A and Skua (and a bomb armed Fulmar) are about equal in overall capability and not much different than the SBD which proved to be the scourge of the KB in 1942.
There's really no difference in IJN and FAA air launched torpedoes in 1941/42. The Albacore would be the frontline torpedo-divebomber in FAA carrier service with the Barracuda coming along in mid/late 1942. The evidence suggests that by May 1941 the RN Mk XII had a 440lb warhead:
"A Note on Sources: Although this weight of 388 lbs. (176 kg) appears in almost all references for the 18" (45 cm) Mark XII torpedo, a memo from DNC Stanley Goodall dated 13 February 1942 states that the warhead weight was 440 lbs. (200 kg)." (Navweaps)
"Enclosure 4
An extract from D.N.C's dealing specifically with para. 8 of First Sea Lord's minute of 1st February (Enclosure 2.)
... British aircraft torpedoes that struck "BISMARCK" contained an explosive charge of 440lbs., whilse those fired by Destroyers contained an explosive charge of 750lbs..."
"Couldn't replace losses" depends on them taking a lot of losses, like sunk carriers. And it's not the same as carrying fewer aircraft.Japanese aircraft carriers carry more aircraft (60-70 vs 40-50)
The KB carried an average of 55 aircraft/carrier in the IO in April 1942 and ~57 (operational) at Midway. They did carry an overload number of aircraft at PH but this wasn't repeated. After Midway, the Zuikakus began to increase their complement from ~62 at Coral Sea to 72 at Eastern Solomons. IJN aircraft/aircrew production/training was insufficient in 1942 and couldn't replace losses.
Japanese land based strike aircraft have long range and can sink enemy ships in daylight
The same was true for Coastal Command and RAF/FAA maritime strike aircraft. *(see below)
British have radar and some aircraft that can fly strikes at night with radar (Swordfish) albeit at very short range
The IJN had considerable difficulty in locating enemy carrier formations even in daylight. Radar equipped Albacores and Swordfish could carry DTs and internal aux tanks, so night range was similar to daylight range, however ASVII conferred advantages even in daylight as it could see through cloud. Night range and daylight range was constrained by recon and navigation capabilities and the IJN's recon wasn't outstanding in 1942.
British have Wellingtons which can also drop torpedoes at night and have very long range
* Yes and other aircraft and they can be used in daylight!
For myself the big difference is the aircraft. I don't believe for a second that the Hurricane had any real chance against the Zero. The Skua was a dive bomber that was probably as good as the Japanese but the Swordfish had no hope in air combat against the Japanese and the B5 was a good aircraft.
The one salvation was the British had much better radar and what I don't think has been mentioned AA weapons and directors. Japanese warships in December 41 were very poorly armed, and effectively had no Radar.
Yamato 12 x 5in DP, 24 x 25mm, 4 x HMG
Fleet Carriers were roughly similar.
8in cruisers normally had 8 x 5inDP and 8 x 25mm
All the above were considerably exceeded by any RN equivalent and had the FAA managed to break through or avoid the fighter cover the Japanese could have been in serious trouble.
In surface combat the British BB's excluding the R class were at least as good as the Japanese battleships with the obvious exception of the Yamato class. They were either new (KGV class) or well modernised (Nelson and QE) with very good fire control and well equipped with radar which in all but perfect calm conditions would give the RN a good advantage.
Battlecruisers - The Repulse, Renown and Hood all modernised would be capable of taking on the Japanese BC's which were all modernised WW1 battleships, without the radar and AA defences of the British ships.
Cruisers. The Heavy Cruisers were a good match and the British light cruisers were considerably better than the Japanese vessels.
A note about Radar. Even the Royal Sovereign by 1942, (Infuriatingly I don't quite know when) had the following, a Type 279 air warning radar, a Type 273 surface-search radar, a Type 284 gunnery radar and two Type 285 anti-aircraft gunnery radars were installed. Not bad, and with this, even the RS would have stood a good chance against the Japanese BB's.
For myself the big difference is the aircraft. I don't believe for a second that the Hurricane had any real chance against the Zero. The Skua was a dive bomber that was probably as good as the Japanese
I didn't actually say that
I disagree. The Japanese superiority in optics is pretty telling, though it would depend on specific conditions. The Brits best bet is probably during poor weather or a new moon. They would need to plan their attacks very carefully..
I don't know why you think the Brits would be able to attack three on one. I think that is highly unlikely.
They had roughly parity in battleships, first of all.
Second, the British would have to run a gauntlet of Japanese carrier and land based strike aircraft to even make it to the battle. Third, they would be facing type 93 torpedoes even before they got into gun range, in all probability.
To clarify - when I mentioned KGV, I meant as a class. And I know the British had some other modern battleships, (just as the Japanese had more than just Yamato and Musashi) but I think the Japanese had a few more of the more modern heavy surface combat vessles (BBs, BCs, and CAs)
end of 1941 no European warI think the Japanese had a few more of the more modern heavy surface combat vessles (BBs, BCs, and CAs)
I wonder about the possibility of using Beaufighters for escort fighters
I am going to give him this one. The Nagato's weren't laid down until 1919-1920 so definitely post Jutland.The Japanese had no other modern battleships aside from the Yamatos.
The limitations of navigation and recon seldom permitted carrier strikes longer than 250nm.Lets compare
Stats----------------SBD--------TBF-----Swordfish----Albacore---Skua----Barracuda----D3A------B5N----D4Y----B6N
Top Speed(MPH)---250--------270--------143-----------161--------225--------240----------270-------235-----340-----300
Range---------------1100-------900--------552----------710--------760--------686-----------915------600------910-----1,085
Bomb Load---------2,250------2,000-------1670--------2000--------500-------1600----------810------1760----1800----1760
Max bomb----------1,000------Torp--------Torp---------Torp-------500--------Torp----------550------Torp----1100----Torp