Rn vs IJN

[Shortround6]

meaning a battle of attrition ought to be winnable.

It might be, but sometimes it was a lot harder to build up to the tipping point.

As has been said, it was 600 miles from the railhead to the Darwin, the road was dirt. The highway was only fully sealed in February 1987.
In the summer (Dec-Feb?) in the middle of Australia it can hit 120 degrees F, if you vehicle breaks down hope you have plenty of water, you will more than likely die if you try walk for help. I took a trip to Coober Pedy in 1991. about 9-10 hours on the paved highway and about 1/4 the distance.
For scale for US Americans the distance from Adelaide to Darwin is about the same as the distance from New Orleans to Los Angles, except the weather is nicer in America and there is a lot more water.

" In 1933 the non-Aboriginal population of the town totaled 1,572; by the end of 1939 it had risen to 3,653"
And it was the largest population center for hundreds of miles in any direction.


Freemantle is Perth, Ok I will get taken to task for that Freemantle borders on Perth.

On the east coast I believe Cairns was the Northern most port that large ships could use?

in 1940 the population of Australia was 7,039,490 or a bit under the population of Toyko

It took a while to build anything up to where you could swing to offense.

A better bet is not to loose so much in the first place.

 

[MikeMeech]

Hi

The OH 'Grand Strategy Volume I' has a lot of detail on the worries of fighting a three front war and also what would be needed in the various circumstances that might arise during the 1930s, some extracts for info:
On the Japanese only option requirements;

Also April 1939 Naval strengths;

Mike

 

[MikeMeech]

At the risk of being accused of writing another editorial, I will try to explain my thinking. I don't know how many four engined types would be available, but yes I suspect they would be difficult to operate from remote remote or jungle fields, and they (with the exception of missions like 617 RAF with Lancasters) don't seem to have been made to strike operational or tactical targets. I never heard of them carrying torpedoes, though I know they did drop some big bombs on German ships at dockside a few times. That said the USAAF and USN did operate B-17s and B-24s respectively in the Pacific so maybe they would have a role, but unlike those aircraft i see the British four engine heavies as being maybe a little too vulnerable for daytime operations.

Hi
However, the Manchester bomb bay (and therefore the Lancaster's as well) was designed to be able to carry two torpedoes as an option, so in theory they could (presumably it could be done with radar at night).

Mike

 

[EwenS]

Hi
However, the Manchester bomb bay (and therefore the Lancaster's as well) was designed to be able to carry two torpedoes as an option, so in theory they could (presumably it could be done with radar at night).

Mike

The torpedo dropping requirement was dropped from P.13/36 spec that led to both the Manchester and the Halifax, on 26 Aug 1937, only some 8 months after the Avro design was selected as the first choice to fulfill P.13/36. That was nearly 2 years before it flew. So all we have is a few outline drawings showing the torpedo configuration.

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

Again I don't thiink that you have quite grasped some of the distances involved nor the weather between Australia & targets in the DEI.
View attachment 734832
The airfields in the Northern Territory of Australia were mostly created in 1942 along the main supply route from Adelaide - The Stuart Highway. Railway track south from Darwin didn't go far in the grand scheme of things (about 300 miles to Larrimah). The railway from Adelaide in South Australia ran out at Alice Springs leaving a gap of over 600 miles that could only be covered by road transport, or a voyage by sea around Western Australia. On the map below airfields at Darwin, Batchelor, Adelaide River, Pine Creek, Katherine & Tindall immediately come to mind. These were built in case the Japanese invaded but some were never used while little use of others was made.
View attachment 734833

Darwin to Balikpapan ( on the east coast of the island of Borneo) is over 1,200 miles and involved flying over Japanese bases in Timor & Celebes. Look at the problems that the first raid by B-24s of the 5th AF encountered in Aug 1943. See the Shady Lady raid info.

The (Complete) Last Log of 'Shady Lady'

From Aborigines to Zeros, navigator John Nash ’39 logged an unforgettable World…

www.bates.edu

Other refineries are even further away.

Airfields in the northern part of Western Australia were few and far between. The two of the main ones were at Exmouth Gulf, (which appears at the extreme western point of Australia just before the coast turns north east in the top map, and referred to as "Potshot" in WW2 reports, and today as RAAF Learmonth) and Corunna Downs some 360 miles due east (an RAAF Liberator squadron was based in that God forsaken patch of near desert in 1944/45). Exmouth Gulf to Soerabaya on Java, the location of another refinery, is over 1,000 miles. Soerabaya is nearly 1,300 miles from Darwin and 1,100 from Corunna Downs.

In the South China Sea, and the DEI more generally, the main weather effects are the North-east Monsoon blowing between Nov & March annually (this helped shelter Japanese invasion fleets while limiting RAF aerial recce in Dec 1941), and the South-west Monsoon which blows from May to Sept annually. They bring huge cumulo nimbus cloud formations which build virtually every afternoon, often rising to heights well above the operating altitudes of WW2 era aircraft, with accompanying lightning stroms and torrential rains.

I very much appreciate the maps, which I always enjoy. But I think you are severely underestimating my familiarity with this Theater. I am well aware of the serious and severe problems in getting aircraft and materiel up to Darwin. I know it would be extremely challenging.

I am personally aware of the monsoons and the afternoon rainstorms. We get those around here where I live as well (along with tropical cyclones). They were a problem for aviation operating all around New Guinea where the giant Own Stanley mountains (unusual so deep into the Tropics) created extra hazards both for shipping and aviation. However, as we know they still ended up turning Port Morseby, considerably (even) more remote and miserable than Darwin, into a substantial air base and conducted militarily effective flight operations from there, from quite early on.

EDIT: More significant for the thread, those afternoon storms usually dissipate very fast in the evening when the sun stops shining and forcing evaporation, and for this reason they rarely affect celestial navigation at night. This is a known fact in commercial maritime circles even today in the era of GPS and AIS. The only exception to this as far as I know are tropical cyclones, i.e. in that area typhoons. When a typhoon is nearby it's probably best to ground the warplanes.


I believe Wellingtons could begin affecting shipping around Java very early on, and could probably expand further than that before too long. Rather than flying out of Darwin, I suspect they could have operated out of Broome, in Western Australia, where the RAAF had a small base in 1942, which was attacked by the Japanese in march 1942, destroying 22 aircraft. At that time, there was at least one US B-24 Liberator and two B-17 aircraft at the base, as well as Lockheed Hudsons and a bunch of PBY Catalinas. Even a couple of old Empire flying boats and some (Dutch?) Do 24s which were destroyed.

Significantly, this raid, basically a strafing attack by Zeros (with a C5M2 fast recon plane flying 'pathfinder'), was launched from Kupang in Timor, which is 878 km away.

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

It read to me like he was talking about submarine ops, not aerial.

Both

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

Well the USN based the 7th Fleet subs at Fremantle in Western Australian along with the Dutch boats, and the RN subs joined them there from Sept 1944. From there they refuelled at Exmouth Gulf before heading for the Malay Barrier. In Dec 1941 the defences of Darwin were incomplete and as we have discussed before on other threads, the size of the town and facilities were wholly inadequate to support very much at all. And so it remained until well into 1945.

Ultimately they did have enough fighters at Darwin to defend it though. The 49th FG successfully defended it in 1942 using P-40Es, but for some reason the system they carefully worked out to do that was not communicated to the RAAF correctly.

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

It might be, but sometimes it was a lot harder to build up to the tipping point.

As has been said, it was 600 miles from the railhead to the Darwin, the road was dirt. The highway was only fully sealed in February 1987.
In the summer (Dec-Feb?) in the middle of Australia it can hit 120 degrees F, if you vehicle breaks down hope you have plenty of water, you will more than likely die if you try walk for help. I took a trip to Coober Pedy in 1991. about 9-10 hours on the paved highway and about 1/4 the distance.
For scale for US Americans the distance from Adelaide to Darwin is about the same as the distance from New Orleans to Los Angles, except the weather is nicer in America and there is a lot more water.

" In 1933 the non-Aboriginal population of the town totaled 1,572; by the end of 1939 it had risen to 3,653"
And it was the largest population center for hundreds of miles in any direction.


Freemantle is Perth, Ok I will get taken to task for that Freemantle borders on Perth.

On the east coast I believe Cairns was the Northern most port that large ships could use?

in 1940 the population of Australia was 7,039,490 or a bit under the population of Toyko

It took a while to build anything up to where you could swing to offense.

A better bet is not to loose so much in the first place.

All of this is true, but they managed to resupply Darwin and Port Moreseby, and far more remote airfields and ports around the area, sufficient to operate many warplanes and eventually, turn the whole region into a death zone for Japanese shipping and aircraft. More could have been done and more quickly by the Australians especially with British support and by not having so much of their army in North Africa. This is indeed a place where the Spitfire will (eventually) shine, though obviously some adjustments will have to be made. The earlier they got that process started the sooner they would achieve air superiority over all the northern coasts of Australia, and have Beaufighters and Sunderlands roaming the seas in the day time, and those Wellingtons at night (maybe Sunderlands too).

 

[Reluctant Poster]

I thought the wings were DC-2.

Even Ray Charles can see the fuselage was redesigned, so yeah, that's why I used that word.

Ray Charles would have designed a better looking aircraft

 

[ThomasP]

In the ATL I think we have to assume that the UK would move men and material to Australia in enough quantity to help build the necessary roads and air bases in the North. Possibly with the aid of Indian troops and workers?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It might be, but sometimes it was a lot harder to build up to the tipping point.

As has been said, it was 600 miles from the railhead to the Darwin, the road was dirt. The highway was only fully sealed in February 1987.
In the summer (Dec-Feb?) in the middle of Australia it can hit 120 degrees F, if you vehicle breaks down hope you have plenty of water, you will more than likely die if you try walk for help. I took a trip to Coober Pedy in 1991. about 9-10 hours on the paved highway and about 1/4 the distance.
For scale for US Americans the distance from Adelaide to Darwin is about the same as the distance from New Orleans to Los Angles, except the weather is nicer in America and there is a lot more water.

" In 1933 the non-Aboriginal population of the town totaled 1,572; by the end of 1939 it had risen to 3,653"
And it was the largest population center for hundreds of miles in any direction.


Freemantle is Perth, Ok I will get taken to task for that Freemantle borders on Perth.

On the east coast I believe Cairns was the Northern most port that large ships could use?

in 1940 the population of Australia was 7,039,490 or a bit under the population of Toyko

It took a while to build anything up to where you could swing to offense.

A better bet is not to loose so much in the first place.

Well, I was talking about attrition battles regarding IJN strikes against Western Australian ports. Maybe, I dunno, build railroads? Ship materiel around the south coast? Fly in the smaller supplies? What's the alternative? Write it off and get to surrender terms? Base out of India and hope the Japanese don't push further to secure their front on the Malay Barrier?

Because otherwise you're seeing the Brits write off Australia, and I think we all agree they don't want that. Assuming Japanese success everywhere else, how would the UK preserve Australia, in your thinking? I don't think the Brits will say, "Oh, right, that's it. Jolly good time, let's pack it up and go home."

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Both

I think aerial raids based out of NW Australia would have a hard time disrupting resource extraction or shipment from NEI. 500-lb bombs dropped four per plane isn't going to get 'er done, I don't think -- if they might reach the refineries/ports at all.

 

[RCAFson]

In the ATL I think we have to assume that the UK would move men and material to Australia in enough quantity to help build the necessary roads and air bases in the North. Possibly with the aid of Indian troops and workers?

Fortunately the BCE was well supplied with vehicular transport:

"Canadian factories produced around 850,000 vehicles in World War II, including some 50,000 armoured vehicles, self-propelled guns, and tanks.[1][2] But of greater significance was the much larger number – more than 800,000 units – of trucks and light wheeled vehicles, produced by Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler of Canada.[3][7] Thanks to a large pre-war automotive sector, Canada's great wartime achievement was to build more military trucks than the main Axis nations – Germany, Italy, and Japan – combined, matching the demands of mobile warfare in the age of blitzkrieg.[1]" Canadian Military Pattern truck - Wikipedia

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

Well, I was talking about attrition battles regarding IJN strikes against Western Australian ports. Maybe, I dunno, build railroads? Ship materiel around the south coast? Fly in the smaller supplies? What's the alternative? Write it off and get to surrender terms? Base out of India and hope the Japanese don't push further to secure their front on the Malay Barrier?

Because otherwise you're seeing the Brits write off Australia, and I think we all agree they don't want that. Assuming Japanese success everywhere else, how would the UK preserve Australia, in your thinking? I don't think the Brits will say, "Oh, right, that's it. Jolly good time, let's pack it up and go home."

I think Darwin was mainly supplied by ship

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Fortunately the BCE was well supplied with vehicular transport:

"Canadian factories produced around 850,000 vehicles in World War II, including some 50,000 armoured vehicles, self-propelled guns, and tanks.[1][2] But of greater significance was the much larger number – more than 800,000 units – of trucks and light wheeled vehicles, produced by Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler of Canada.[3][7] Thanks to a large pre-war automotive sector, Canada's great wartime achievement was to build more military trucks than the main Axis nations – Germany, Italy, and Japan – combined, matching the demands of mobile warfare in the age of blitzkrieg.[1]" Canadian Military Pattern truck - Wikipedia

Considering both the otl American willingness to contribute bottoms across the Atlantic and the willingness to provide escort for a goodly amount of the distance, as well as American hostility to Japan, I think that a neutral America in this UK/Japanese war would still ship vehicles and other supplies and resources from West Coast ports to Australia.

 

[RCAFson]

Well, I was talking about attrition battles regarding IJN strikes against Western Australian ports. Maybe, I dunno, build railroads? Ship materiel around the south coast? Fly in the smaller supplies? What's the alternative? Write it off and get to surrender terms? Base out of India and hope the Japanese don't push further to secure their front on the Malay Barrier?

Because otherwise you're seeing the Brits write off Australia, and I think we all agree they don't want that. Assuming Japanese success everywhere else, how would the UK preserve Australia, in your thinking? I don't think the Brits will say, "Oh, right, that's it. Jolly good time, let's pack it up and go home."

In the OTL the best Indian Army divisions were in the MTO but in this ATL they can be elsewhere, ditto for the ~10 Dominion divisions in the MTO and ETO. As long as India and Ceylon remain in BCE hands the SLOC to Australia will be open and the massive BCE MM will supply it. An interesting scenario is one where the BCE pushes back in NG and the Solomons and island hops northward.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

In the OTL the best Indian Army divisions were in the MTO but in this ATL they can be elsewhere, ditto for the ~10 Dominion divisions in the MTO and ETO. As long as India and Ceylon remain in BCE hands the SLOC to Australia will be open and the massive BCE MM will supply it. An interesting scenario is one where the BCE pushes back in NG and the Solomons and island hops northward.

I don't think the idea of fighting from India is good. It has to be held, obviously, but attacking through Burma is ugly. Perhaps as an American I'm biased, but I think island-hopping north from Australia would be better. So yes, I think we agree: maintaining India is vital, but geography kinda kiboshes any land offensive from there, imo.

 

[Wild_Bill_Kelso]

I think aerial raids based out of NW Australia would have a hard time disrupting resource extraction or shipment from NEI. 500-lb bombs dropped four per plane isn't going to get 'er done, I don't think -- if they might reach the refineries/ports at all.

I think they would, again based on the havoc wrought by Japanese bombers against ports and all kinds of infrastructure and industrial targets in Burma, China, Malaya and Indonesia (Dutch East Indies). And in Darwin. All of which was done by comparatively light bombers probably carrying 1,000 or less bomb loads. Bombers with max 2,000 lb bomb loads anyway in most cases. This would include Ki-21, G3M, G4M etc.

Similar carnage was wrought in the Middle East with also very lightly armed Maryland, (early) Boston, and Baltimore bombers, all of which had light ~ 2,000 lb bomb loads as well. And by fighter-bombers which carried between 500 or even 250 lb loads for longer strikes, to as much as 1,500 lb for very short range strikes. later in the war 2,000 lbs.

Later, when heavy bombers capable of carrying heavy loads did arrive, they did more damage against certain types of targets, but even the light bombers were causing significant problems well before that.

Flying a raid from Broome against the base where the Zeroes attacked from in March 1942, I believe Wellingtons could carry more than 2,000 lbs. That distance is less than 600 miles, a Wellington Mk 1 is supposed to be capable of 2,500 miles, and we know that they flew raids from England to Berlin, about ~700 miles each way, with I think close to their full bomb load of 4,500 lbs. I admit I'm no expert on the Wellington so maybe someone else knows how heavy a load they brought to Berlin.

My assessment of the Colonial commercial infrastructure in the Pacific is that it was pretty fragile, prone to damage and difficult to repair and maintain, just like much of the commercial infrastructure in North Africa and the Middle East. They had all the problems the Australians had in getting materiel to Darwin, and considerably more in many cases. Especially if the coasts are being haunted by British submarines and nocturnal Wellingtons carrying torpedoes. Maybe Beaufighters and Beauforts during the day too.

It's worth pointing out that I am very much an advocate of, and believer in accuracy over bomb load when it comes to air strikes. Wellingtons seemed to be able to hit their (tactical and operational) targets, even at night, and I'm not sure how they did it, but the damage they caused was telling. In the Pacific Theater, the 5th Air Force under Gen Kenney emphasized very high accuracy over bomb load, with mast-head height and skip-bombing attacks, (including at night by PBYs) low level strafing, and the use of parafrag (very small parachute delayed) bombs. All of this turned out to be very effective as we know.

Wellingtons in the Pacific should also be able to replicate the success of their real life counterparts in the MTO by carrying torpedoes and sinking Axis shipping with them, which would make the coasts of Java and Timor quite dangerous for Japanese shipping I think, once they got into their groove. They could also routinely drop mines into the ports, harbors, and shipping lanes.

 

[RCAFson]

I don't think the idea of fighting from India is good. It has to be held, obviously, but attacking through Burma is ugly. Perhaps as an American I'm biased, but I think island-hopping north from Australia would be better. So yes, I think we agree: maintaining India is vital, but geography kinda kiboshes any land offensive from there, imo.

If Japan is able to advance into Burma then the BCE has no choice but to do so, especially to keep the Burma Rd open, but in this ATL the BCE has the air and land forces needed to defeat any force that Japan can deploy in Burma. The Indian Army in the ATL was huge and the BCE has the manpower to support Burma and the SWP simultaneously.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think they would, again based on the havoc wrought by Japanese bombers against ports and all kinds of infrastructure and industrial targets in Burma, China, Malaya and Indonesia (Dutch East Indies). And in Darwin. All of which was done by comparatively light bombers probably carrying 1,000 or less bomb loads. Bombers with max 2,000 lb bomb loads anyway in most cases. This would include Ki-21, G3M, G4M etc.

Similar carnage was wrought in the Middle East with also very lightly armed Maryland, (early) Boston, and Baltimore bombers, all of which had light ~ 2,000 lb bomb loads as well.

Later, when bombers capable of carrying heavy loads arrived, they did more damage, but even the light bombers were causing significant problems.

The problem is less the loadout but the bombs themselves. Attacking refineries, as we Americans found out in Europe, 500-lb bombs weren't so useful as the total tonnage might indicate. Now, the Brit heavies could probably do some serious boomalot, what with a 4000-lb HE and a shit-ton of incendiaries. But you're going to be waiting for that, and also be waiting for the targeting aids to undo the problems outlined by the Butt Report.

Flying a raid from Broome against the base where the Zeroes attacked from in March 1942, I believe Wellingtons could carry more than 2,000 lbs. That distance is less than 600 miles, a Wellington Mk 1 is supposed to be capable of 2,500 miles, and we know that they flew raids from England to Berlin, about ~700 miles each way, with I think close to their full bomb load of 4,500 lbs. I admit I'm no expert on the Wellington so maybe someone else knows how heavy a load they brought to Berlin.

It's been pointed out prior that the tropics aren't friendly to wood, which was a good proportion of the Wimpy's build. They may make the missions, but I think the operational rates are going to suffer simply due to the airplane's build.

My assessment of the Colonial commercial infrastructure in the Pacific is that it was pretty fragile, prone to damage and difficult to repair and maintain, just like much of the commercial infrastructure in North Africa and the Middle East. They had all the problems the Australians had in getting materiel to Darwin, and considerably more in many cases. Especially if the coasts are being haunted by British submarines and nocturnal Wellingtons carrying torpedoes. Maybe Beaufighters and Beauforts during the day too.

If the RN and RAAF are active, absolutely -- the IJN will have a hard time of it. But I think @RCAF is right, that the MM will be able to sail directly to Western Aus, granted that there will be long lead-times for any items on order.

It's worth pointing out that I am very much an advocate of, and believer in accuracy over bomb load when it comes to air strikes. Wellingtons seemed to be able to hit their (tactical and operational) targets, even at night, and I'm not sure how they did it, but the damage they caused was telling. In the Pacific Theater, the 5th Air Force under Gen Kenney emphasized very high accuracy over bomb load, with mast-head height and skip-bombing attacks, (including at night by PBYs) low level strafing, and the use of parafrag (very small parachute delayed) bombs. All of this turned out to be very effective as we knoow.

The thing is, can they get to the ships? The distance from Darwin to Balikpapan is 1200 miles one-way, which is beyond pushing the Wellington's range, not accounting for other fuel issues like the sketchy weather. Those ships are headed north.

Wellingtons in the Pacific should also be able to replicate the success of their real life counterparts in the MTO by carrying torpedoes and sinking Axis shipping with them, which would make the coasts of Java and Timor quite dangerous for Japanese shipping I think, once they got into their groove. They could also routinely drop mines into the ports, harbors, and shipping lanes.

They could do good service, no doubt. But I'm not sure they would be great at interdicting the flow of resources back to Japan, which was the point I was addressing.