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This depends on swapping 30 aircraft for 10, with attendant ground support. 3 squadrons instead of 1. (Blenheim 11 squadron had 14 planes, only 10 took-off).In March/April 1942 the IJN's carrier fleet approached Ceylon without a credible CAP aloft, allowing a strike group of Blenheim bombers to arrive sufficiently unopposed that near misses were scored against the carriers. Swap out those Blenheims for thirty Skuas, diving, unopposed from altitude upon the carriers, and the IJN will have a bad day. That's why.
The issue here is not that the Fulmar doesn't show up, but that the Skuas are not found wanting in a non-existent and/or brief ETO airwar, so are are retained as combat aircraft, probably shore based, and used in OT squadrons to facilitate FAA expansion.They had been planning on replacing the Skua with the Fulmar in 1937-38 which is well before the ETO broke out.
The initial order for 127 Fulmars was placed in 1938.
Does anybody really think that if Germany didn't invade Poland in 1939 the Air ministry would have have told Fairey, "hey, hold up building those 127 Fulmars we ordered, we are going to keep using Skua's till about 1942, we will let you know in year or so to start production or not"
The thing is that the FAA was planning on replacing the Skuas in 1938. There were only 4 combat squadrons that ever had them. first issue to Squadrons at the vey end of 1938 (not in full numbers) and No 800 squadron swapped for Fulmars in March 1941, No 806 squadron swapped it's mix of Skuas and Rocs somewhere in here, No 803 swapped for Sea Hurricanes in May 1941 and No 801 Squadron swapped for Sea Hurricanes in August.The issue here is not that the Fulmar doesn't show up, but that the Skuas are not found wanting in a non-existent and/or brief ETO airwar, so are are retained as combat aircraft, probably shore based, and used in OT squadrons to facilitate FAA expansion.
Surely you don't suggest the CCCP might have territorial ambitions east?The problem I personally have with the no war in Europe scenario it that it pits the Japanese against 3 colonial powers even if the US magically stays out of things.
Granted the Netherlands is not particularly powerful but the European war in 1940 cuts the DEI off from support/supply/money from the homeland.
France is a much bigger factor. With no war in Europe or with only increased tensions, does France give in to Japanese demands or does France reinforce French Indo-china, send planes and ships and troops in the late summer and fall of 1940? Without bases in French Indo-china or at least agreeing to cut the rail link from Haiphong-Hanoi to Kunming to stop supplies reaching the Chinese, Japanese expansion is severely limited.
With bases in northern French Indo-china Japanese airpower can cross Thailand and attack Burma or go north over Burma and attack that supply route to Kunming.
It was this move into north French Indo-china in Sept 1940 that really triggered the round of sanctions that lead to the war with Japan.
A French/Japan war in the fall of 1940 with no European war is not going to end well for the French. The French are simply too far away. But it buys time for the British.
The next move was the Japanese occupation of south French Indo-china in July of 1941 and that is what triggered the oil embargo.
It also cut the flying distance from a Japanese base to Singapore by around 500 miles. Without occupying French Indo-china at all the flying distance was around 1200 miles from a Japanese base to Singapore and around 1000 miles to north east Burma. It also involved flying over over 400 miles of French Indo-china so it might not have been practical if the French still held French Indo-china and were in position to object (intercept) any such attacks.
It was also about 1000 miles from a Japanese air base to Northern British Borneo instead of around 650 miles from French Indo-china to Borneo.
If the Japanese start trying to role up the Non-Vichy French in the no war in Europe scenario, to get access to materials and bases to move south the British and Dutch have more time and greater resources.
Japan waited for the Dutch homeland to be taken out, the French homeland to be taken out and a puppet put in charge and then the British stripped the Far east area of resources to fight in Europe/Africa.
In this scenario the Americans are taken off the table (mostly), but the British are not occupied elsewhere, The French, one of the 6 great powers, and the Dutch, one of the better minors, are in play. Japan is fighting the Chinese and sitting across from the Russians who are doing what ??? with no European war.
one by one.Both the Dutch and the French had some pretty good aircraft coming online in 1940, depending on how long each war took and if they had managed to send anything out there, it could get interesting.
D.520 is definitely a better fighter than a Hurricane. Might have been a problem for the Japanese.
MS.406 was more mediocre but still probably about as good as a Hurricane I
Bloch 152 probably similar, about equal to a Hurricane
VG.33 is a bit of a question mark but it certainly looks good on paper. Might have been even more of a problem for the IJN than the D.520
Bloch 174 was a good long range recon plane, fast enough to avoid interception. Recon isn't as glamorous as strike or fighter planes, but could be a major factor.
LEO 451 is a dangerous level bomber with an 1800 mile range, 300 mph top speed and a 20mm defensive cannon
Br 693 is a fast (300 mph) low-altitude strike aircraft, with 20mm cannon in the nose for strafing. They had trouble with German light AAA but that might not be the case with Japanese.
Heaven forbid. They are just trying to keep warm and eating their Borscht extending Stalin's peace and good will to all in the area.Surely you don't suggest the CCCP might have territorial ambitions east?
Why?
However good (or bad) the Skua was in the spring of 1940 it was certainly not a good choice 1 1/2 years later.
The Roc is nothing more than a free target for the Japanese, all the practice and none of the expense (fuel, maintenance, cost of feeding the air crew and ground crew),
Swipe a few dozen Tomahawks from North Africa and send them east.
You want to save South East Asia stop sending them scraps swept out of corners of dusty hangers and send them planes that are merely obsolescent and not completely obsolete.
one by one.
D.520 is definitely a better fighter than a Hurricane. Might have been a problem for the Japanese.
It might have been. Maneuver not so much, perhaps think of it as Tomahawk?
Note, I said a Hurricane I! And we are talking 1942. Hurricane is just a familiar benchmark.MS.406 was more mediocre but still probably about as good as a Hurricane I.
I don't know what you have against the Hurricane
The MS.406 had problems, it makes the Hurricane look like a Spitfire. In 1941/42 you want the MS.410.
The small 170 sq ft wing helps with the speed, but turns? Remember, maneuverable against 109s is NOT maneuverable against Japanese aircraft.
Maybe death traps against the Japanese.
Bloch 152 probably similar, about equal to a Hurricane
Possibilities, you have a nearly 6000lb plane with a 186 sq ft wing. Forget out turning the Japanese.
And you can't outrun them.
VG.33 is a bit of a question mark but it certainly looks good on paper. Might have been even more of a problem for the IJN than the D.520
Well, you have speed, after that?
Not sure about the wood structure in Viet Nam?
Bloch 174 was a good long range recon plane, fast enough to avoid interception. Recon isn't as glamorous as strike or fighter planes, but could be a major factor.
Might be the best of the bunch.
LEO 451 is a dangerous level bomber with an 1800 mile range, 300 mph top speed and a 20mm defensive cannon
Wiki really over sells this one, a bomber with no bomb is not all that dangerous.
Range with 1100lb bomb is 1430 miles (732Imp gal fuel ?)
It will carry two 500kg bombs and two 200kg bombs but the fuel load drops to 398 Imp gallons.
You can keep trading bombs for fuel.
economical cruise speed was 227mph? The 260-261mph was max cruise speed.
The 20mm gun is kind of cool
View attachment 762579
Br 693 is a fast (300 mph) low-altitude strike aircraft, with 20mm cannon in the nose for strafing. They had trouble with German light AAA but that might not be the case with Japanese.
OK. Lets take a P-38, keep the 20mm gun (one 60 round drum?) swap the four 12.7mm guns for two 7.5s, Swap the the two Turbo Allison's for a pair of 3/4 scale ( 700hp)real airplane engines, Stick a 2nd crewman in the back with one popgun out the top and one out the bottom and put in small bomb bay.
No self sealing fuel tanks and no armor?
You can do just as much strafing with an MS 406.
Range does not add up. supposed to go 840 miles but can't cross the Med? About 500 miles from Marseille to Algiers?
It is cute
Now you have to get the French to believe they have to send real warplanes and and not flying packing crates.
View attachment 762578
One of the few planes that can make a Whitley look streamlined
If the British can conclude that a single-engine, monoplane dive bomber offers the best defence of Ceylon from the forecasted IJN attack, then there's only one to pick from. The Skua.It also uses a lot of hindsight, picking the right airplane, putting it in the place at the right time to use it at best advantage.
and an under 800 mile range plane with a single 500lb bomb is going to offer so much more protection to the Indian ocean that 1400 mile range planes with a pair of 500lb bombs?If the British can conclude that a single-engine, monoplane dive bomber offers the best defence of Ceylon from the forecasted IJN attack, then there's only one to pick from. The Skua.
Totally agree. By mid 1941 the UK had a good number of Spitfires which could have been sent to the Far East. The Sterling bombers would be a difficult enemy for the IJAF of the time and even Wellingtons would be far from easy, but much easier to catch. Most Japanese fighters had 2 x LMG with little or no protection, and the quad LMG turrets would be a serious threat.Why?
However good (or bad) the Skua was in the spring of 1940 it was certainly not a good choice 1 1/2 years later.
The Roc is nothing more than a free target for the Japanese, all the practice and none of the expense (fuel, maintenance, cost of feeding the air crew and ground crew),
Swipe a few dozen Tomahawks from North Africa and send them east.
You want to save South East Asia stop sending them scraps swept out of corners of dusty hangers and send them planes that are merely obsolescent and not completely obsolete.
If the Skuas attack without being spotted as per the Blenheims, or the SBDs at Midway, then it is a bad day for the KB. But maybe the SBD attacks at Midway were just flukes as well?Skuas weren't going to save the day at Ceylon, that's a joke. You aren't only assuming they were there, but that the Japanese wouldn't have had CAP up, or the CAP wouldn't have spotted them. If the IJN knew there were dive bombers based on Ceylon, and they probably would have known, they would also have likely kept more fighters back for protection of the fleet. They had plenty of fighters. And the Skua was dead meat against a Zero, they would have faced the same fate that the six Swordfish that showed up in the battle area did.
The Blenheim attack was a fluke, but they may not have taken the threat very seriously since it was already apparent that level bombing didn't work well against ships, and they knew any possible fighter escort was probably out of reach.
The IJN only lost one Zero in the Blenheim raid, they lost two more to Hurricanes, for the loss of 16 Hurricanes and 4 Fulmars.
The Skuas didn't even enter service till 1939. However the USN had a similar timeline with the TBD.The thing is that the FAA was planning on replacing the Skuas in 1938. There were only 4 combat squadrons that ever had them. first issue to Squadrons at the vey end of 1938 (not in full numbers) and No 800 squadron swapped for Fulmars in March 1941, No 806 squadron swapped it's mix of Skuas and Rocs somewhere in here, No 803 swapped for Sea Hurricanes in May 1941 and No 801 Squadron swapped for Sea Hurricanes in August.
Lets also remember that ALL Skuas. except for one, had been completed by the end 1939, so we are basing the salvation of the Indian Ocean on 2-3 year old airframes.
I kind of like the Skua, I think there should have been a MK III version, perhaps with a Pegasus engine and a 1000lb bomb load, but they didn't and they didn't build more than 1 in 1940 which leaves you with a bunch of rather well used (not driven to the church only on Sundays) airplanes in 1942.
I agree, though we couldn't have known that Barbarossa would be ground to a stop by Jan 1942.Totally agree. By mid 1941 the UK had a good number of Spitfires which could have been sent to the Far East.