Rn vs IJN

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This depends on swapping 30 aircraft for 10, with attendant ground support. 3 squadrons instead of 1. (Blenheim 11 squadron had 14 planes, only 10 took-off).

It also uses a lot of hindsight, picking the right airplane, putting it in the place at the right time to use it at best advantage.

The Blenheims were MK IVs with 1400 mile range. They can't dive bomb and the British had not figured out "glide" or shallow dive bombing yet (less that 45 degree dive) . Or mast height bombing.
The Blenheims had much more general utility than the shorter range Skuas.
They were also faster and had better defense.
The Zeros shot down 5 (?) of the Blenheims during the withdrawal (some say up to 25 minutes ?) while the Blenheims may have shot down 4 of the Zeros.
 
The issue here is not that the Fulmar doesn't show up, but that the Skuas are not found wanting in a non-existent and/or brief ETO airwar, so are are retained as combat aircraft, probably shore based, and used in OT squadrons to facilitate FAA expansion.
 
Back to ships and firing. The RN and USN are the only two navies who developed blind firing during the war
using continuous information techniques fed into good analog / electric computing systems. This gave a clear
advantage compared to manual systems which could not keep up with a large flow of info and could not
compete when faced with enemy vessels that could accurately target and fire at them from beyond visual
range, especially at night.

Surigao Straits was the last example of big gun vs big gun action and is a clear example of the difference.
 
Skuas weren't going to save the day at Ceylon, that's a joke. You aren't only assuming they were there, but that the Japanese wouldn't have had CAP up, or the CAP wouldn't have spotted them. If the IJN knew there were dive bombers based on Ceylon, and they probably would have known, they would also have likely kept more fighters back for protection of the fleet. They had plenty of fighters. And the Skua was dead meat against a Zero, they would have faced the same fate that the six Swordfish that showed up in the battle area did.

The Blenheim attack was a fluke, but they may not have taken the threat very seriously since it was already apparent that level bombing didn't work well against ships, and they knew any possible fighter escort was probably out of reach.

The IJN only lost one Zero in the Blenheim raid, they lost two more to Hurricanes, for the loss of 16 Hurricanes and 4 Fulmars.
 
The problem I personally have with the no war in Europe scenario it that it pits the Japanese against 3 colonial powers even if the US magically stays out of things.

Granted the Netherlands is not particularly powerful but the European war in 1940 cuts the DEI off from support/supply/money from the homeland.

France is a much bigger factor. With no war in Europe or with only increased tensions, does France give in to Japanese demands or does France reinforce French Indo-china, send planes and ships and troops in the late summer and fall of 1940? Without bases in French Indo-china or at least agreeing to cut the rail link from Haiphong-Hanoi to Kunming to stop supplies reaching the Chinese, Japanese expansion is severely limited.
With bases in northern French Indo-china Japanese airpower can cross Thailand and attack Burma or go north over Burma and attack that supply route to Kunming.

It was this move into north French Indo-china in Sept 1940 that really triggered the round of sanctions that lead to the war with Japan.

A French/Japan war in the fall of 1940 with no European war is not going to end well for the French. The French are simply too far away. But it buys time for the British.
The next move was the Japanese occupation of south French Indo-china in July of 1941 and that is what triggered the oil embargo.

It also cut the flying distance from a Japanese base to Singapore by around 500 miles. Without occupying French Indo-china at all the flying distance was around 1200 miles from a Japanese base to Singapore and around 1000 miles to north east Burma. It also involved flying over over 400 miles of French Indo-china so it might not have been practical if the French still held French Indo-china and were in position to object (intercept) any such attacks.
It was also about 1000 miles from a Japanese air base to Northern British Borneo instead of around 650 miles from French Indo-china to Borneo.

If the Japanese start trying to role up the Non-Vichy French in the no war in Europe scenario, to get access to materials and bases to move south the British and Dutch have more time and greater resources.

Japan waited for the Dutch homeland to be taken out, the French homeland to be taken out and a puppet put in charge and then the British stripped the Far east area of resources to fight in Europe/Africa.

In this scenario the Americans are taken off the table (mostly), but the British are not occupied elsewhere, The French, one of the 6 great powers, and the Dutch, one of the better minors, are in play. Japan is fighting the Chinese and sitting across from the Russians who are doing what ??? with no European war.
 
The thing is that the FAA was planning on replacing the Skuas in 1938. There were only 4 combat squadrons that ever had them. first issue to Squadrons at the vey end of 1938 (not in full numbers) and No 800 squadron swapped for Fulmars in March 1941, No 806 squadron swapped it's mix of Skuas and Rocs somewhere in here, No 803 swapped for Sea Hurricanes in May 1941 and No 801 Squadron swapped for Sea Hurricanes in August.
Lets also remember that ALL Skuas. except for one, had been completed by the end 1939, so we are basing the salvation of the Indian Ocean on 2-3 year old airframes.

I kind of like the Skua, I think there should have been a MK III version, perhaps with a Pegasus engine and a 1000lb bomb load, but they didn't and they didn't build more than 1 in 1940 which leaves you with a bunch of rather well used (not driven to the church only on Sundays) airplanes in 1942.
 
Both the Dutch and the French had some pretty good aircraft coming online in 1940, depending on how long each war took and if they had managed to send anything out there, it could get interesting.

D.520 is definitely a better fighter than a Hurricane. Might have been a problem for the Japanese.
MS.406 was more mediocre but still probably about as good as a Hurricane I
Bloch 152 probably similar, about equal to a Hurricane
VG.33 is a bit of a question mark but it certainly looks good on paper. Might have been even more of a problem for the IJN than the D.520
Bloch 174 was a good long range recon plane, fast enough to avoid interception. Recon isn't as glamorous as strike or fighter planes, but could be a major factor.
LEO 451 is a dangerous level bomber with an 1800 mile range, 300 mph top speed and a 20mm defensive cannon
Br 693 is a fast (300 mph) low-altitude strike aircraft, with 20mm cannon in the nose for strafing. They had trouble with German light AAA but that might not be the case with Japanese.

Fokker D.XXI, which was the Dutch export fighter, is at least competent. It did pretty well for the Finns. Probably dead meat against a Zero but it could probably contend with Ki.27 or shoot down Ki-21 or G3M.
The Koolhaven F.K.58 was another export fighter, Dutch made but it had been sold to the French for overseas use. Faster than the D.XXI, it may have been competent. It was pressed into service in the Battle of France but they were just delivered and the French (and the Polish pilots who were assigned to them) had trouble arming them, so they never saw any action. Another question mark.
Fokker G.1, the Dutch twin engined 'heavy' fighter, was heavily armed and had a decent range. Might have been vulnerable to an A6M but it could provide long range escort or intercept bombers.
Fokker T.V. is a pretty reasonable bomber, at least as good as a Blenheim I'd say.
 
Surely you don't suggest the CCCP might have territorial ambitions east?
 
one by one.

D.520 is definitely a better fighter than a Hurricane. Might have been a problem for the Japanese.
It might have been. Maneuver not so much, perhaps think of it as Tomahawk?

MS.406 was more mediocre but still probably about as good as a Hurricane I.
I don't know what you have against the Hurricane
The MS.406 had problems, it makes the Hurricane look like a Spitfire. In 1941/42 you want the MS.410.
The small 170 sq ft wing helps with the speed, but turns? Remember, maneuverable against 109s is NOT maneuverable against Japanese aircraft.
Maybe death traps against the Japanese.
Bloch 152 probably similar, about equal to a Hurricane
Possibilities, you have a nearly 6000lb plane with a 186 sq ft wing. Forget out turning the Japanese.
And you can't outrun them.

VG.33 is a bit of a question mark but it certainly looks good on paper. Might have been even more of a problem for the IJN than the D.520
Well, you have speed, after that?
Not sure about the wood structure in Viet Nam?

Bloch 174 was a good long range recon plane, fast enough to avoid interception. Recon isn't as glamorous as strike or fighter planes, but could be a major factor.
Might be the best of the bunch.

LEO 451 is a dangerous level bomber with an 1800 mile range, 300 mph top speed and a 20mm defensive cannon
Wiki really over sells this one, a bomber with no bomb is not all that dangerous.
Range with 1100lb bomb is 1430 miles (732Imp gal fuel ?)
It will carry two 500kg bombs and two 200kg bombs but the fuel load drops to 398 Imp gallons.
You can keep trading bombs for fuel.
economical cruise speed was 227mph? The 260-261mph was max cruise speed.
The 20mm gun is kind of cool


Br 693 is a fast (300 mph) low-altitude strike aircraft, with 20mm cannon in the nose for strafing. They had trouble with German light AAA but that might not be the case with Japanese.
OK. Lets take a P-38, keep the 20mm gun (one 60 round drum?) swap the four 12.7mm guns for two 7.5s, Swap the the two Turbo Allison's for a pair of 3/4 scale ( 700hp)real airplane engines, Stick a 2nd crewman in the back with one popgun out the top and one out the bottom and put in small bomb bay.
No self sealing fuel tanks and no armor?
You can do just as much strafing with an MS 406.
Range does not add up. supposed to go 840 miles but can't cross the Med? About 500 miles from Marseille to Algiers?
It is cute

Now you have to get the French to believe they have to send real warplanes and and not flying packing crates.

One of the few planes that can make a Whitley look streamlined
 

As much as I agree with the sentiment and the post overall, I don't think they could spare any Tomahawks from the Middle East. Maybe some that were meant to go to Russia but that would have hurt the Russians a little at a key moment (assuming the Soviet-German war still happens)

Maybe Hawk 75s, they seem to have done fairly well in the Middle East. Somebody (Dutch and French both did I think) probably bought some regardless of US involvement in the war.
 
one by one.

D.520 is definitely a better fighter than a Hurricane. Might have been a problem for the Japanese.
It might have been. Maneuver not so much, perhaps think of it as Tomahawk?

Tomahawk was one of the most maneuverable allied fighters of that period, if you consider turn rate and roll major factors of 'maneuverability'

But I agree. Though specific capabilities are slightly different, it's probably equivalent to a Tomahawk. The D.520, which had a bit higher wing loading, was not going to turn with Japanese fighters, but it was very small and well streamlined, and probably fast enough to do hit and dive.

per Wiki: "The maximum dive speed tested was 830 km/h (520 mph) with no buffeting and excellent stability both in the dive (depending on fuel load) and as a gun platform."

That's higher than the official P-40 dive speed, and it was supposed to roll well. So I think it can fight using that tactic. Plus it's better armed with a Tomahawk with a hub mounted 20mm. Assuming they adjust tactics appropriately, it could be a success. D.520s were good enough to shoot down a fair number of Wildcats and some Seafires and Sea Hurricanes in 1943 at Torch. So I definitely wouldn't count them out.

D.520 also had about the same range as a Tomahawk, which means better than a Hurricane. Range is important in this Theater.

If they got some of the later variants on the drawing boards (D.524, D.550, D.551), even more so without a doubt.

MS.406 was more mediocre but still probably about as good as a Hurricane I.
I don't know what you have against the Hurricane
Note, I said a Hurricane I! And we are talking 1942. Hurricane is just a familiar benchmark.

Some MS.406 did get shipped to the Far East. I don't know if there was any air combat during the brief Japanese invasion of Indochina, but they did get into action against the Thai forces. Per Wiki:

"Before the Pacific campaign proper, Vichy authorities in French Indochina were engaged in a frontier war against Thailand, during 1940–41. A number of M.S.406s stationed in Indochina downed several Thai fighters before all French Air Force units were withdrawn from the theatre."

I think the Thai air forces were flying Ki-27 and Ki-43 fighters, though I don't know when they had what.

Apparently near Madagascar MS.406 got into action against Fulmars and got the worst of it, so that does not bode well.


Maybe, I gather they were pretty agile, but probably not as good as an A6M or Ki-43, and too slow and draggy to escape them. Cannon helps a little. Definitely MS 410 would be better though still probably not good enough. You may be right it might not quite be the equivalent of a Hurricane I. Even if it was, that isn't going to cut it against the IJN (or IJA).

Bloch 152 probably similar, about equal to a Hurricane
Possibilities, you have a nearly 6000lb plane with a 186 sq ft wing. Forget out turning the Japanese.
And you can't outrun them.

Bloch 152 may be able to hit and run through dives, but I agree it's got problems, maybe more than the 406. They did poorly in the Battle of France. The ultimate / viable version of that fighter was probably still six months away at the time of the German invasion. Very short range on these too so that's another problem, they would only be viable as interceptors or base defense probably.

VG.33 is a bit of a question mark but it certainly looks good on paper. Might have been even more of a problem for the IJN than the D.520
Well, you have speed, after that?
Not sure about the wood structure in Viet Nam?

Fair point about the wood. If the wood was made to work (bakelite / resin coating ala Yak-9?) it had speed and decent firepower (20mm hub mounted cannon) which may be sufficient with the right tactics, as with the D.520. Later models, VG 38, 39 etc. would be quite formidable I think. Also has decent range ala D.520.

Bloch 174 was a good long range recon plane, fast enough to avoid interception. Recon isn't as glamorous as strike or fighter planes, but could be a major factor.
Might be the best of the bunch.

In some ways...


It's still a fast bomber with a 1400 mile range, that is pretty useful. It compares pretty well to a B-25 say. Much better range than an A-20. Hands down superior to a Blenheim in just about every respect. Would also make a good long range recon plane.

The 20mm gun is kind of cool
View attachment 762579

Big and ridiculous looking, but apparently accurate enough (with a clear field of fire between the tail) that the Luftwaffe gave it a wide berth.

I just got a Heller kit of one of these pretty cheap on Ebay, the oversized gun is definitely a highlight, looking forward to seeing how it comes out.


Nobody respects the B4 693, but I rate it. Being cute may not help but being very small and well-streamlined does, I think. And I think the range was real, there were other reasons not to send them across the Med. They had trouble with German light AAA, ala ubiquitous 20mm Oerlikon, but as you keep pointing out, Japanese AAA wasn't nearly as good or as plentiful.

Now you have to get the French to believe they have to send real warplanes and and not flying packing crates.
View attachment 762578
One of the few planes that can make a Whitley look streamlined

yeah this was right in the moment of France exiting their Fugly phase!

And truthfully, they probably wouldn't send their better planes to the Far East because they underestimated the Japanese. Unless perhaps they saw the Japanese steamroll the Dutch first.

Speaking of which, you had nothing to say about the Dutch aircraft?
 
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Plus it's better armed with a Tomahawk with a hub mounted 20mm. Assuming they adjust tactics appropriately, it could be a success........................

We are getting into "what if's" here.
Historically the French used the drum Fed cannon, but the belt feed drawings were gotten out of France just a few days before the Surrender so in this scenario Possible French planes to SE Asia means belt fed guns with double the ammo capacity? At least the V-12 powered planes. doubling the ammo load on the MB 152 may be a bit much? 90 rounds per gun?

There may be some improvements in the engines. I don't have big hopes for improvements in 1940-41 ( planes have to shipped by about the middle of 1941 at the latest and first batches have to go in the summer/fall of 1940. Japanese got in trouble with their offensive into the Guangxi area which started in Nov 1939. This was the last actual Chinese Sea port and China was cut off except for Indo-china, the Burma road and the hump. The Japanese wanted to cut the routes through Indo-China.

The Leo 451 was good but it was not a B-25. smaller wing and 2/3rd the power needs a change in the laws of physics.
Of course with nearly twice the weight of Blenheim it is little wonder that it was better than the Blenheim.
Not all twins are created equal

Which brings us to the Br 693.
It was 11,000lb airplane. There is only so much it can do.
 
It also uses a lot of hindsight, picking the right airplane, putting it in the place at the right time to use it at best advantage.
If the British can conclude that a single-engine, monoplane dive bomber offers the best defence of Ceylon from the forecasted IJN attack, then there's only one to pick from. The Skua.

Now, if we have only a month or so notice, how do you get them to Ceylon? Presumably pack the carriers.
 
If the British can conclude that a single-engine, monoplane dive bomber offers the best defence of Ceylon from the forecasted IJN attack, then there's only one to pick from. The Skua.
and an under 800 mile range plane with a single 500lb bomb is going to offer so much more protection to the Indian ocean that 1400 mile range planes with a pair of 500lb bombs?
I will grant you the better accuracy.
By the way, it take quite a while train dive bomber pilots to actually hit anything.
 
Totally agree. By mid 1941 the UK had a good number of Spitfires which could have been sent to the Far East. The Sterling bombers would be a difficult enemy for the IJAF of the time and even Wellingtons would be far from easy, but much easier to catch. Most Japanese fighters had 2 x LMG with little or no protection, and the quad LMG turrets would be a serious threat.
 
If the Skuas attack without being spotted as per the Blenheims, or the SBDs at Midway, then it is a bad day for the KB. But maybe the SBD attacks at Midway were just flukes as well?

One CAP Zero was shot down by the Blenheims and other Zeros returning from an escort mission, encountered the Blenheims well away from the KB and another one was also shot down.

5 Blenheims lost vs 2 Zero losses. ( data from Bloody Shambles V2).
 
The Skuas didn't even enter service till 1939. However the USN had a similar timeline with the TBD.

We also have to consider that the Fulmar, as originally planned, was to be fitted for carrying 2 x 250lb wing mounted bombs and a 500lb bomb on the centreline or a 60IG slipper DT. It seems that in the rush to get the Fulmar in service that the wing hard points were deleted and the centreline hardpoint was delayed until late 1941/mid 1942.
 
Totally agree. By mid 1941 the UK had a good number of Spitfires which could have been sent to the Far East.
I agree, though we couldn't have known that Barbarossa would be ground to a stop by Jan 1942.

This map is of little use considering it was all USSR, but it does show how little of modern Russia the Germans took. The Belarusians, Ukrainians and future Baltic Reps took the biggest territorial hit.



What the Far East needs is earlier and more decisive victories in North Africa. That'll free up some kit for the Indo-Pacific.
 
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