So, back to it.
China
May 1942
Up until this point, from Nov-Dec 1941, the JAAF in China was flying fixed undercarriage Ki-27 fighters, who were contending with the P-40b (or whatever precise version of Tomahawk it was) of the American Volunteer Group. I am not going to go into deep detail of the story of the AVG here, because most people are familiar with it, except to note that the good reputation of the AVG seems to be largely upheld by the author Hirochi Ichimura, and the people he interviewed. I'll transcribe a couple of quotes. "Again, victories were few and far between, and both sides made inflated claims. However it was obvious that JAAF losses in both fighters and bombers in that time greatly exceeded those of the CATF. The JAAF claims were optimistic in mission after mission, but it was clear that the real victor was the CATF." Fighting seems to have been at a fairly low intensity though. In May-June 1943 the Ki-43-II began arriving, which improved the situation for the JAAF.
I would like to note that there are not enough dates in this book, I'm having trouble verifying the dates of specific events since he often gives the day but not always the month or the year. So if I mess up a date don't crucify me.
JAAF units
33rd 54th Sentai, (Ki-27)
24th Sentai, 25th Sentai, 10th independent Flying Chutai, 33rd Sentai (replaced 24th Sentai in September) (Ki-43-1* in May 1943 Ki-43-II)
47th independent Flying Chutai (from November, Ki-44*)
Bombers 58 Sentai and others (Ki-21, later Ki-48)
Air Surveilance Unit (Ki-15, Ki-46)
* the Ki-43-I arrived in May-June 1942, the Ki-43-II came in to gradually replace the Ki-43-I in May-June. They did not go back to Japan for conversion.
** this apparently was an evaluation unit for the very early Ki-44
Allied units
China Air Task Force
(originally) AVG (P-40B, by spring 1942 P-40E)
23rd Fighter Group [74th, 75th, 76th FS], after July 1942 (P-40E and P-40K, mid- 1942 P-51A and P-43, in mid 1943 P-38 and in 1944 P-51B, C, D)
51st Fighter Group, in India from Jan 1942, in Burma from March 1942, 16th FS in China from June 1942, rest of the group in China October 1943 (P-40E, P-40K, P-40M and P-40N, in 1944 P-47, and in 1945 P-51D)
USAAF 10th Air Force based in India (originally over 23rd and 51st FG and associated bomber units)
USAAF 14th Air Force (after March 1943) based in China (replaced China Air Task Force and took control of several units from 10th Air Force)
7th Bombardment Group [11th BS] (B-25C and D, later H and J), 308 Bomb Group, [373rd, 374th, 375th and 425th BS], (B-24D)
341st Bombardment Group (B-25)
Chinese-American Composite Wing (Provisional)
3rd FG (P-40E later P-40M and P-40N, Vultee P-66)
1st Bombardment Group (B-25D, later B-25H and J)
By 1943, fighting began to intensify in conjunction with major Japanese ground offensives. 23rd FG, aka Claire Chennaults personal branch of the USAAF, continued to do well in fighter vs fighter combat especially with the P-40s, in spite of the arrival of the Ki-43-II, partly due to their good network of ground spotters and the use of radar, as well as Chennaults aggressive but cunning tactics. Allied fighter units were often, though not always, prepared and had time for top cover to climb to altitude. The Japanese also apear to have had radar by this time and also made use of ground spotters so they were also usually prepared for raids.
Both the 25th and 33rd Sentai's in China received special training from the experienced 50th Sentai in Burma about how to deal with US bombers with head-on attacks. The USAAF still thought that B-24s could fly raids unescorted against the lightly armed Ki-43s but this turned out to be wrong. On [I think] July 20 1943, 14 B-24D from the 373 and 375th BS on a raid were detected by Japanese radar at Yochow. They missed rendezvous with fighter escort and were attacked by 25th Sentai Ki-43s, 2 being shot down including the leader, 1 more made a forced landing at a fighter base and 9 were heavily damaged. The bomber gunners claimed 57 JAAF fighters shot down, but none were actually destroyed.
JAAF had some other successes. On a JAAF bombing raid on the 23rd, 2x Ki-21s were shot down but "one P-40 or P-43 pilot was killed and another bailed out" and 2 x P-66 were shot down. No Ki-43s were destroyed. On the 25th, a raid by CATF B-25s and 7 x B-24s, escorted by 10x P-40s, were intercepted by 40 x Ki-43s from 25th and 33rd Sentai. Noting that the B-25s were "fast and agile", they made one pass against the B-25s and then focused on the B-24s, making head on attacks. 4 x B-24s were shot down, for the loss of 3 x Ki-43s, including 33rd Sentai commander Maj Watanabe. 2 of the Ki-43s lost were shot down by the P-40s, one by B-24 gunners.
In August 1943 5 x B-24s from 373rd attacked Hanoi where 25th Sentai was now based, unescorted, possibly due to the distance. The raid was detected by ground surveilance and fighters vectored in by radio. 35 Ki-43s intercepted them, as usual they concentrated on the lead aircraft and then picked off the rest one by one. 4 x B-24s were destroyed, for the loss of 1 x Ki-43. On a followup raid on 1 October escorted by 24 x P-40s, 3 x P-40s were shot down with two Chinese pilots killed, 2 x Ki-43s were shot down, no B-24s were destroyed. On 6 October, 21-victory ace Lt Isamu Hosono's aircraft was heavily damaged by P-40s while escorting Ki-48 bombers. Realizing he would not make it back to base, and unwilling to become a PoW, he elected to crash his plane into a river, which was praised by newspapers in Japan.
Losses
From 23 July - 6 Oct 1943 JAAF 3rd Air Division claimed 113 victories, and lost 49 aircraft (25 fighters, 14 bombers and 1 transport).
Allied units lost 30 aircraft and 80-90 aircrew.
The 25th Sentai, which was the highest-scoring Ki-43 unit, claimed 54 victories in this period, losing 8 pilots. Their actual victories as confirmed by Allied records were 12 aircraft - 6 x B-24s, 2 x P-40, 2 x P-43, 1 x P-38, and 1 x P-66
Author notes "Despite having suffered heavy losses to USAAF and CAF fighters, the JAAF considered the summer offensive a success because it resulted in the Furteenth Air Force scaling back its activities in China. The real reason for this was a reduction in the number of supply missions being flown over the Himalayas because of bad weather and the implementation of Operation Tsujigiri in northern Burma by the 50th Sentai" (attacks on transport aircraft going over "The Hump")