VLR B-24 Liberators and the Mid-Atlantic Gap

[Reluctant Poster]

But they did not stop more than 10% of the supplies, even though the ships they sank were capable of more than one trip. Read Hitler's U-Boat War by Clay Blair; he explains this. We did react to the U-boat success, built ships faster than they could sink them, and in 1944 were sinking something like 10 times the tonnage in U-boats that they were sinking in our ships. The Germans lost 500 U-boats in WWII, 10 times as many as the USN.

The idea that America won the war simply by building ships faster than the enemy could sink them is an argument with several large holes in it;
1. In addition to losing ships you are losing cargo which must be replaced. In some instances the cargo is virtually irreplaceable. For example the planned expansion of the enormous refinery at Abadan was delayed on two separate occasions, each time by several months due to a U-boat sinking the ship carrying the equipment.
2. There was a world wide shortage of shipping throughout the entire was. If all you're new builds are going into the lifeline to Britain the other theaters are going without. The Bengal famine which claimed 2 to 3 million lives was blamed in part on the prioritization of shipping for war materials.
3. There was a shortage of tankers. Tankers are much harder to build than cargo ships. The Germans knew this and made them priority targets. Admiral King stupidly lost 50 priceless tankers in the first 6 months of the war which was 10% of the allied fleet. After that tankers were always in short supply. Without oil the whole show grinds to a halt.
4. When the Royal Navy defeated the U Boats in May 1943 the USN was able to cancel a large portion of their destroyer escort program. This freed shipyard capacity to build landing craft. The was a shortage of landing craft through the war. without the additional landing craft operations would have had to be postponed. I would guess that the advance thru the Pacific would have suffered.
5. People. War is actually fought by humans. Any organization consistently losing 10% of its strength falls to pieces pretty quickly. Everyone is a rookie. Efficiency plummets. Serving in the Merchant Marine was one of the most dangerous jobs in the war. I think only bomber crews and, ironically, U-boat crews had a higher mortality rate. Approximately 30,000 mariners died terrible deaths, blown to bits when you're ammunition cargo goes up, trapped below deck when your ore carrier sinks within a minute of being torpedoed, burned to death when your gasoline tanker catches fire, scalded by steam in the boiler room or simply freezing to death in the Atlantic watching the other ships sailing off because they can't stop for fear of suffering the same fate. I'm amazed that morale didn't crack as it was, but if the loss rate had continued I doubt you would find anyone willing to go on a suicide mission.

 

[Shortround6]

Unless I am adding things up wrong the U-boats were sinking ships faster than they could be built in 1940 and 1941. The shipbuilders beat the U boats by about 17% in 1942 and it is probably true that it was in the last few months? Things may have been a bit on the iffy side at the end of 1942. Things looking better for the allies but not out of the woods yet, If Germans can get back to earlier success rates (or even close) then the surplus goes away.

The Allied introduction of new sensors and weapons means they keep the tactical initiative and the increase number of escorts just push that further.

The Germans failed to keep up the technical pace fell and behind quickly. A few extra AA guns or 20 tons more fuel oil is not really changing things by very much. They sat on the schnorkel for several years. They failed to enlarge the internal size of the boats for far too long and used those ridiculous deck storage tubes for reloads, which were pretty much useless in the North Atlantic, especially in winter. They kept a rather slow submerged speed, Under 8kts for the Type VII while the British T and U/V could make 9 and the S class could do 10kts. In a given amount of time (say 15 minutes) a boat that can do 10 kts has over 50% more "area" to disappear into than an 8 kt boat.

Please note I am not talking about new hull forms or type XXI subs.

The outcome of the Battle of the Atlantic was a lot harder to call in 1941 and most of 1942. Nov 1942 being a high point for the U-boats with 126 ships (802,160 tons) sunk. the next month saw the sinkings drop to about 1/2.

There is a difference between what we know now and what they knew then. Just a few really bad months in row would have meant real trouble but the Germans were not able to put 3 or more (or even two?) high scoring months together.