Read an article years ago that said that for the typical 7.92 and 20MM armament of a German fighter, the probability of downing a B-17 or B-24 on one pass was around 1%. So it took 50 firing passes to even get a 50% probability. I don't know what the probability was of doing 50 firing passes at an unescorted US bomber formation without the fighter sustaining serious damage but I'd guess it was pretty low.
I would be wary about that figure, for a start the Bf109G-5 and G-6 with the 13mm machine guns began appearing in early 1943. Also whether the Bf109 were carrying 1 or 3x20mm guns.
The Fw190A-2, 3, 4 had the 2x7.9mm, 2x20mm high and 2x20mm low velocity (1942 into 1943), the A-5 had 2x7.9mm, 4x20mm high velocity from around April 1943, the A-7 changed the machine guns to 13mm in late 1943.
That is a wide variety of firepower.
Williamson Murray has Luftwaffe fighter losses on 14 October 1943 as 31 destroyed, 11 write off, 34 damaged. Donald Caldwell says 882 Luftwaffe sorties of which 662 made contact. Roger Freeman has the 8th AF bomber casualties as 60 MIA, 7 write off, 138 damaged from 320 despatched and 229 effective sorties. US fighters claimed 13-1-0 for 1 MIA, 4 write off, 2 damaged. RAF fighters made no claims. The B-17 listings say 61 MIA, 1 "Battle Damage", 2 Flak and Fighter, 55 Fighter, 3 Flak, write offs were 8, 2 "Battle Damage", 1 Fighter, 2 Flak, and 1 each to Fuel Starvation, Landing Accident and Mechanical Failure on take off. Assuming for the moment all the P-47 were lost to enemy fighters, 662 Luftwaffe fighters caused 61 USAAF losses plus 2 shared with flak, which is around 9% of sorties making contact. At 1% per pass it would require nearly 6,000 passes to shoot down the B-17 lost to fighters.
To ignore flak for a moment, 662 Luftwaffe fighters making contact caused around 200 USAAF lost or damaged. Assume half the damaged were to flak and those Luftwaffe fighters caused around 130 USAAF lost or damaged, or about 20% of the sorties making contact. Air Combat in WWII was usually about all the misses.
What read was that the hit rate was 2%. And that twenty 20 mm hits would down a B-17G.
To repeat much of message 13: The reported average of 18 to 20 hits of 20 mm cannon to bring down a B-17 is via causing structural failure, that is no fire.
US firing trials at Aberdeen using German 20mm incendiary rounds versus 40% full B-17 fuel tanks showed the chance of causing a fire per hit was 10% at 50 metres dropping to 2% at 2000 metres. Apparently a 13mm round's chance of starting a fire was 40% of the 20 mm.
So the average number of hits to bring down a B-17 (and by implication other 4 engined types) would have been under the 18 to 20 figure, given the ones lost to fires. For 30mm it was 2 to 3 hits.
The 8th Air force noted that the lethality of Me-262 passes were only 30% of prop aircraft passes
So what period of piston engined fighters is being compared, 1942, 1943, 1944, the Sturm units? Yet the Me262 had 4x30mm cannon firing. The number of Me262 sorties that made contact with USAF heavies is actually small, given the numbers of Me262 actually available in the fighter units. JG7 in 1945 on days when sorties can be determined had 636 sorties, 355 making contact with the enemy. On the days with unrecorded sorties 62 out of the 217 claims for the year were registered, including 14 against Bomber Command on 31 March (11 RAF losses, 6 to ME262, other causes not given).
Giving the Me262 to experienced pilots initially proved counter productive as they tended to treat the engines like piston types, the novice pilots who considered the Me262 to be "normal" did better, then experience began to tell.
(keeping in mind that by 1945 only the Me-262 could realistically attempt passes, given the lopsided forces present).
The Luftwaffe claims system was breaking down in 1945 which creates 2 effects, claims that would have been rejected are in the lists but others did not make the lists. Of 365 Me262 kill claims found 161 are for B-17/24 heavy bombers in 1945 and 66 USAAF fighters or reconnaissance fighters, in 1945 the USAAF ETO lost 199 heavy bombers and the MTO 7 heavy bombers to enemy aircraft, all up about 480 USAAF losses to enemy aircraft in 1945. By the way about half the Me262 claims can be matched to allied losses.
The reason for that is of course that guns HATED overtaking speed, and anything even approaching 60 mph in overtaking speed required last second point-blank fire at about 50-75 metres (to increase the weak 2% hit rate despite the burden of a mismatched overtaking path), 50 metres per second being 180 km/h, the overtaking had to be much slower than that).
Tail chase, closing at 100 yards a second is around 200 mph, against a USAAF heavy you are doing over 400 mph and have under 2 seconds of fire if the lethal zone is 200 yards. 75 yards per second is around 150 mph, under 3 seconds firing time.
Given its losses it likely never got a 1:1 kill ratio.
Seems to be from my writings. JG7 lost 132 Me262s of which 3 were bombed, versus making 262 kill claims. The losses include to 101 to fighter, enemy aircraft, shot down, failed to return and bomber. So overall JG7 was losing about 1 Me262 per real kill, and in combat around 1 Me262 per 1.3 to 1.4 real kills.
As an aside, a very interesting study of all Me-262 losses found that over 70% of them crashed beyond 50 kilometres from their bases, and only about 10-20% within 10 kilometres of their bases, so the idea they were slaughtered while landing or taking off is false...
A 240mph approach speed covers 4 miles per minute, or able to cover around 10km in 90 seconds. The Me262 airfields had good flak coverage plus often patrolling fighters coupled with the speeds involved no surprises the losses due to enemy action were often over 10km from the airfield.
Allied fighter kill claims against Me262s appear reasonable, with 188 claimed versus 89 losses listed to fighters and 75 listed as shot down or lost to enemy aircraft, a total 164. Note a number of these possibles would have been lost to bomber gunners or AA Fire, on the other hand a number of crashes are reported as after combat and other allied claims are a case of mistaken identity, it was not an Me262 that was actually attacked. The discrepancy between allied fighters claims and recorded Me262 losses is biggest in April 1945, 14 to fighters, 38 possibles versus 74 claims, a difference of 22, or almost all the total discrepancy of 188 kills versus 164 possibles.
Another interesting side note is that the B-24 was easier to set on fire because of some of its fuel tank were concentrated in a central area in the spine of the fuselage
No, the only fuselage fuel tanks in both USAAF heavy bombers were carried in the bomb bays. A design flaw of the B-24 appears to have been the fuel lines in the fuselage. Plenty of people have remarked about the smell of fuel in the aircraft and the way the lines could come loose.
The B-24 had a higher fatality rate than the B-17 per aircraft shot down (or adding-in its higher accident rate maybe), but curiously it did not have much heavier losses in terms of loss per sortie in Europe
Definitely coming from my information.
The Luftwaffe kill claims against 8th and 15th AF B-17s are remarkably consistent, over claiming by about 2 to 1 month after month for the entire campaign. Assuming all the B-17s listed as lost to battle damage, unknown causes or a combination of flak and fighters were in fact lost to fighter attack means the monthly figures move around a lot more and the over claim ratio for the entire campaign drops from 2.1 to 1.7 to 1.
The figures for the 8th AF B-24 losses indicate Luftwaffe over claims were under 2 to 1, if all the unknown etc. losses were to fighters it would be as low as 1.5 to 1, and the upper bound around 1.95 to 1.
From a list of 4,509 8th AF B-17 losses, most with cause of loss, but a number without information on crew fate. Also 1,761 B-24 losses, with probably around another 100 losses to be identified that came down on friendly territory or in the ocean but the crew were saved. Around 200 of the B-24 have no cause of loss and quite a few more crew details are missing than for B-17s.
It can be seen by the fact the deaths when shot down by fighters, for the B-17 about 37% of an average 9.74 man crew were KIA when lost to fighters, 32.1% of an average 9.2 man crew were KIA when lost to flak.
For the B-24, after taking out the low level mission flak losses, something like 49.4% of an average 9.4 man crew were KIA when lost to fighters. 37.1% of an average 8.9 man crew when lost to flak.
Note the different crew sizes, that relates to B-24 crews whose fate is unknown and the bias there is to survivors, rather than casualties. If you match crew sizes and assume the extra B-24 men survived, the B-24 KIA figures become 47.3% and 35.7%.
Crew survival training and equipment helps crew survival as well, from the 170 8th AF B-17 lost to fighters to end June 1943, 53% of the men on board were KIA, and 41.7% of the men on board the 52 B-17s lost to flak in the same time period were KIA, average 10 man crews.
8th AF in 1944, percentages are of credit sorties.
1944 | MIA | Cat E | credit sorties | effective sorties | MIA % | Loss % | Cat E/MIA |
| B-17 | 1957 | 502 | 121882 | 109736 | 1.61 | 2.02 | 0.26 |
| B-24 | 858 | 346 | 66154 | 56300 | 1.30 | 1.82 | 0.40 |
| Total | 2815 | 848 | 188036 | 166036 | | | |
In theory this means the B-24 was more damage survivable, making it back more often, or took more damage on average in a crash landing. The B-17 accident list has 4,021 accidents, 3,632 of which have a 1 to 5 damage level recorded, 27% level 4, 23% level 5. For the B-24 3,653 accidents, 3,288 of which have a damage level recorded, 30.4% level 4, 35% level 5. So 50% of B-17 accidents probably meant scrapping versus 65% of B-24 accidents. Still suggest battle damaged B-24 were making it home more often.
Note: 8th Air Force 1,003 B-17 lost in 1943 vs 125 B-24 which goes a long way to explaining wartime B-17 MIA of credit sorties 1.58%, B-24 1.20%. The 15th Air Force says B-17 lost or destroyed rate was 1.49%, B-24 2.0% of effective sorties. Credit = entered contested airspace, effective = carried out mission.