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I've never held the rivet gun, let alone being in the aircraft business myself - but Lockheed managed to churn out almost 4200 P-38s in 1944 from one (granted, a big one) factory. Almost as much as Bell produced P-39s in 1943, or Curtiss' production of P-40s in the same year, both much simpler aircraft. Lockheed have had more than 1300 P-38s ordered before Sept 1940, yet both USAAF and Lockheed missed the opportunity to have either a second source of P-38s, and/or to have the production of the Hudsons and the like outsourced. Eg. Boeing was second source for early Boston III (~A-20) bombers.
For comparison sake, in Sept 1940, the USAF ordered 733 P-47, by Oct 14 1941 the order is totaled at 850, and 3 factories are to produce it.
The vision from the AAF is required more, I'm afraid
We know that Lockheed simply installed wing racks on the P-38F (and retrofitted it on the P-38Es in service) and that NAA installed not just racks, but also air brakes on the A-36, so I'd say that it was much more down to the current doctrine (dogma?) whether the wing racks will be on the P-47, rather than it is about the Republic's capabilities.
This document has been posted here before. It's obvious Rau was not a fan of the P-38 and I would bet he also didn't like to fly multi engine aircraft. While He writes this memo the 475th FG is making history with the P-38..
"During World War II, the 475th Fighter Group, in combat for approximately two years, completed 3042 missions, (21,701 Sorties) and shot down 551 Japanese aircraft. On the other hand, the Group lost only 56 Planes to the Japanese. During the war, the Group took part in seven campaigns, and was awarded three Distinguished Unit Citations for outstanding performance of duty in action. In addition to Major McGuire, the unit boasted such "Aces" of the Pacific War as Col. Charles MacDonald (27), Capt. Daniel T. Roberts (14), Lt. Francis J. Lent (11), Lt. Col. John S. Loisel (11), and Capt. Elliot Summer (10), plus many more."
Aces
The point I was making to Greg was that flying in teh Pacific and the ETO had different challenges.
In the Pacific a long range could be achieved because much of a flight would be over water with no anti-aircraft below and little chance f being bounced from above. So they could use the most economic cruise settings.
IN the ETO, on the other hand, that was not feasible.
Combat losses are difficult to directly compare, especially when attacking well defended ground targets. Were the targets comparably defended? Were the attackers bounced by enemy fighters? Was the number of attacking planes comparable (the '38 was typically available in lower quantities than the Mustang)? Did the pilots have comparable experience? Was similar damage done to the targets (was one group pressing an attack harder than the other)?
The statistics I gave you are extracted from Missing Aircrew Reports, parsed for strafing losses - both airfield and in support of Invasion from June-August when 8th AF had mixed escort and Fighter Bomber role. All P-38 Groups in 8th AF converted to P-51 (except 479th) They are not reduced to losses per sortie because many losses were experienced as random drop to the deck and strafe on the way home. Most of the strafing losses occurred when strafing heavily guarded LW airfields. The point I will make is that despite the arguably better P-38 armament and twin engine 'safety factor' the ratio of aircraft destroyed on the ground per P-38 lost was one third of the P-51. Spoken another way the P-38 strafing credit to loss ration was ~ 1.5:1 where as the P-47 was 3.7:1 and the P-51 was 5.6:1
By all records, the '38 had a significantly longer ACTUAL combat range than either the P-51 or P-47, at least in the hands of experienced pilots that knew how to operate it. In the Pacific, long range missions were the rule. A combat RADIUS of 1000 miles was not uncommon with later models of the '38, and some attacks on the Borneo oil fields were about 1200 miles one-way. Remember that the '38 could, and did, carry up to (2) 310 gallon external tanks.
The Combat Radius is a Defined parameter developed by AAF following flight tests. It specified, warm up, taxi, climb to altitude and cruise to the radius endpoint, drop tanks to fight, 13 minutes of MP, 5 minutes WEP, cruise back, let down and have 20 minutes of internal fuel remaining. By THAT standard the P-38J with leading edge fuel cells, 330 gallons external, full internal fuel and ammo w/GW=20,200 pound had a Combat Radius, defined above, as 650 miles at 25000 feet. From the same chart the P-51D with full internal fuel and 220 gallons external, full combat load GW=11,100, at 25,000 feet, was 700 miles.
Take the external tanks away with otherwise same loading and the P-38J goes 275 miles and the P-51D goes 375 miles. For internal fuel only plus two 1000 pound bombs the P-38J goes 200 miles and the P-51D goes 350 miles.
True a Borneo trip was possible but it had to fly the mission as a Ferry Mission Profile versus the Combat scenario - and- had to shut one engine down at altitude to enable single engine consumption rate. If that mission was ever attempted it is flying very slow at 25,000 feet and very vulnerable to attacker flying 150 mph faster.
On internal fuel only, no tanks the P-38J single direction Range is 1170 miles with TO GW= 17,500 pound. The P-51D with all internal fuel at TO GW 10,100 flies 1275 miles.
Note: All the above table values were developed by AAF following extensive flight test for multiple GW, fuel consumption, cruise speeds and altitudes... intended for planning purpose but only as a guide as combat mission itself, for different altitudes as wellas length of escort leg dictated the settings the Leader would communicate.
This link makes for some interesting reading, though I can not vouch for it's accuracy: The P-38 (C.C. Jordan; MakinKid; CDB100620)
Also keep in mind that, while the '51 had a higher dive speed (due to a later onset of comprehensibility) it was a fairly poor climber vs the '38 (4750fpm vs 3200) meaning that the '38 climbed nearly 50% faster (even without the K model). Climbing ability makes it possible to gain an energy advantage quite quickly.
Nothing succeeds like success, but a tally of enemy fighters was not the only measure. The basic idea of having escort fighters was prevent or reduce enemy fighter attacks on the bombers under protection by the escorts.
Several German pilots testified that the unique shape of the P-38 allowed for quick identification, which made their job easier. They had more time to decide if they wanted to fight or flee. Single-engine fighters looked much the same until the pilots got close enough to see national markings. That is why so many were shot down in error by both sides.
It was almost impossible to mistake a P-38 for another aircraft, and it's easy to see how that sometimes worked in favor of the Lightning pilots.
Because the P-38 was easily identified from a great distance, it was easily avoided by German fighters when numbers and position did not suit them. So on the debit side, Lightning pilots had fewer opportunities to engage enemy fighters. On the plus side, the bombers under escort by Lightnings were sometimes left unharmed because the Germans intentionally avoided contact with the P-38s and instead attacked bombers under escort by P-51s or P-47s.
The P-38 pilots at the 479th Fighter Group gave mixed reviews for the P-51, which was often referred to as the "Spam Can". Colonel Hubert Zemke said that he preferred the P-51, but he had very low hours on twin-engine fighters. The guys who liked the P-51 said that it could climb higher and fly further than a P-38. The guys who did not like the P-51 cited control problems and the uncomfortable seat, which was noticable on long flights.
That was a double-edged sword. While the shape of the Lightning was unique and easily identifiable, not only could enemy pilots identify it, but so could our own. Several stories I've read from bomber pilots and crews indicated they preferred that, over the "pucker factor" of seeing a single engine fighter and not knowing if it was a 'Bolt or FW, or 109 vs '51. Equally important our AA crews (land and sea based) had far less of an issue identifying them. IIRC that was a major reason they were used so heavily to cover the Normandy landings.
A former B-17 pilot told me that he got his multi-engine training in AT-6's. That was early in the war and the multi-engine school that he was sent to hadn't received any twin engine trainers yet so they used AT-6's. Okay for instrument and formation training and he got multi-engine training in B-17 school. So if you decide to build P-38's instead of P-51's, you also need to build lots more twin engine trainers which we already weren't able to build fast enough. Since the aircraft engine industry was already working hard to build as many engines as possible, you'll have to settle for half as many P-38's as P-51's. Also, when looking at contract prices for aircraft, almost all military aircraft programs have engines, propellers, armament and instruments as Government Furnished Equipment and their cost is not included in the contract price for the aircraft.