Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Good info on money involved, doesn't address the carried charge much.
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)
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Good info on money involved, doesn't address the carried charge much.
Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
Update on the Melitopol Air Base news. Ukraine claimed it downed two Su-25s yesterday, both hit over the front lines by MANPADS. Likely an accurate claim.
First one was lost on the Russian side of the lines. According to sources on both sides, the pilot was observed to eject. The second was reportedly heavily damaged and either crashed on landing or the pilot ejected on approach to the airfield. Either way, it exploded at/near one end of the runway at Melitopol Air Base. Secondary explosions were observed and reported, likely ammunition detonations.
Interestingly, one Ukrainian National Guard unit is claiming these as their sixth and seventh Russian aircraft downed.
In other aerial news, Russia also lost an Su-35 today over the Black Sea. Potentially an Su-24 was damaged as well.
First one was lost on the Russian side of the lines. According to sources on both sides, the pilot was observed to eject. The second was reportedly heavily damaged and either crashed on landing or the pilot ejected on approach to the airfield. Either way, it exploded at/near one end of the runway at Melitopol Air Base. Secondary explosions were observed and reported, likely ammunition detonations.
Interestingly, one Ukrainian National Guard unit is claiming these as their sixth and seventh Russian aircraft downed.
In other aerial news, Russia also lost an Su-35 today over the Black Sea. Potentially an Su-24 was damaged as well.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
syscom3
Pacific Historian
Reminds me of Full Metal Jacket. "God has a hard on for marines".
syscom3
Pacific Historian
The conduct the the Russian military has been bad at many levels. I got to thinking. In the Soviet era of the 60's through 80's, would the Soviet era military had been also incompetent? I think the NATO forces of that era would have defeated them, although with heavy losses and destroyed cities.
michaelmaltby
Colonel
evidence suggests leadership and tactics were faulty in Afghanistan - so I think the rot was already terminal.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Would the Soviet draftees had been so bad? The only example we have is Afghanistan, and to be fair the terrain and tribal connections are so different than Ukraine that a comparison doesn't seem apt.
Russian men seem to fight hard. But they have historically been poorly led. This might be the case currently.
Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
That's a very difficult question with a very long answer. The answer also depends a lot on the specifics of the time period and who is doing the relative assessment.
Some (book length) reading on the topic, courtesy of RAND, NATO and our friends at the CIA (hi Joe, how's the wife?):
If you give me six months, and a publishers advance, I could probably put something together
syscom3
Pacific Historian
I agree.
syscom3
Pacific Historian
Hindsight is always 20/20 vision.That's a very difficult question with a very long answer. The answer also depends a lot on the specifics of the time period and who is doing the relative assessment.
Some (book length) reading on the topic, courtesy of RAND, NATO and our friends at the CIA (hi Joe, how's the wife?):
If you give me six months, and a publishers advance, I could probably put something together
Admiral Beez
Captain
I do worry that Russia's ineptitude in this war will give the West false confidence in its military prowess for the future. China will not be such a pushover.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
The rot was long in the root. There was both drug corruption on the unit level and financial corruption in the higher leadership.
And not to blow my own horn but I'd said even fifteen years ago that once America pulled out of Afghanistan it would go to shit. About as easy as predicting a beheading at a guillotine party.
Afghan troops were very busy finding their next fix of [insert opium pillow here]. Afghan
"leaders" were busy finding their next grift. The American illusion of building a solid nation was just horseshit we fed ourselves. Because when everything's kerfuckled, everyone looks out for themselves.
We should have had an evacuation plan long before 2021. Aug 2021 was a failure that belongs to Pentagon planning ... or lack thereof.
Greg Boeser
1st Sergeant
I think we're talking about the Russian military adventure in Afghanistan.
America demonstrated that we can insert forces anywhere in the world. Getting out gracefully needs more work.
Probably why we still maintain a presence in Germany and Japan. Can't figure out how to pull out without collapsing the whole house of cards.
Admiral Beez
Captain
Afghanistan just returned to what it was, what it always was, to its natural state. The Taliban Afghans defeated the other Afghans. One day other Afghans will overthrow the Taliban Afghans. Violent rule and regime change is their way of life, for centuries.
Beyond harbouring Bin Laden it was never our fight. Had the Taliban turned over Bin Laden in 2001 (as GWB was demanding) I'd be good to leave the Afghans to sort out their own lives - without the West invading and occupying their country for two decades.
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Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
I don't think we've even got that. At least not yet.
There's a really diverse set of opinions from Western contemporary and current day commentators on how well each side would have performed in a conventional conflict in Europe. Everything from the 'Soviet steamroller will be at the English channel inside of 30 days', to 'Red Army will fall apart in 2 weeks because of leadership/C&C failings'
US opinions through the period was more of the view that conventional forces could eventually stop a Soviet advance.
European opinions were more mixed, but bent towards the view that nuclear weapons were needed as Soviet superiority in manpower was too great. UK opinions of the late 1960s/early 1970s were really dour (probably reflecting the issues in their own armed forces at the time).
Generally speaking, lower command ranks (up to brigade/division level) in the West seem to have been generally positive about Western chances. Higher up than that and it's a real mix of optimism and pessimism, and the mood waxes and wanes depending on the time period.
As for the Soviet/Russian view, that's harder to tell (as there's just not that much English language stuff available), but it seems really diverse as well. In the mid 1960s, there was something of a panic about the force reductions under Khrushchev, a 'modernised' NATO being able to defeat a 'Great Patriotic War' Soviet Army. By the mid 1970s, confidence was high again with a build up and modernisation of the Red Army underway. Come Afghanistan and opinion splits - some think the poor showing was largely situation, others argue it showed that the Red Army was due for another overhaul.
Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
I listened to a lecture on post-Cold War conflicts recently. One of the statements that stuck out to me was that the US is very good at winning conventional wars, but very bad at managing unconventional peace. Not just Afghanistan and Iraq, but all through Latin America and even southern Europe.
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syscom3
Pacific Historian
Thank you.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Okay. How'd that work out for them?
Right, not so good. Now they're ass-deep in a country that has much more cohesion.
Greg Boeser
1st Sergeant
I am reminded of the training video we watched of a Mujaheddin fighter chanting "Allah hu akbar!" As the Russian convoy rolled into the kill zone of his IED. Then - boom! Nothing.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
We Americans seem to have the Maslow's Hammer problem. I really wish we could practice more artful diplomacy. Sun-Tzu said it best, that the greatest victory was won without a battle.
