"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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A MBT's best defence against drones is to keep your hatches closed, especially when stationary.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ry7rzNGsng0&pp=ygUtdWtyYWluZSBkcm9uZXMgZGVzdHJveWVkIHJ1c3NpYW4gdGFua3MgdG9kYXkg

It would be a shame if Ukrainians lost some of their new Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks by the Russians dropping otherwise tame bombs into open hatches.
 
Vladimir Putin may need to take remedial lessons in cartography and geography.

On May 23, Valery Zorkin, the head of Russia's Constitutional Court, showed the Russian leader a copy of a map from the mid-17th century depicting Eastern Europe. "Why did I bring it?" Zorkin asked rhetorically, pointing at the territory north of the Black Sea. "There's no Ukraine on this map."

To which Putin, who's devoted an extraordinary amount of time to asserting Ukraine's historical nonexistence, replied: "We know that these lands were part of the [Polish] Commonwealth, and then asked to join the Muscovite tsardom, and that's that. And then later, after the October Revolution … the Soviet government created Soviet Ukraine. Everyone knows this. Until then, there was no Ukraine in the history of humanity."

Not quite, as the map Zorkin and Putin seemingly studied shows exactly the opposite.

According to the Russian website Verstka, the map the two men examined was produced by the French cartographer Guillaume Sanson (1633-1703). It shows, in unmistakable capital letters, that the area immediately north of the Black Sea is labeled "UKRAINE OU PAYS DES COSAQUES" or "Ukraine or the Country of the Cossacks."

Even more embarrassing, the map makes no mention of a country called "Russia." Instead, it depicts a whole slew of duchies, including the "DUCHÉ DE MOSKOU." True, the map is labeled as being of "La Russie blanche ou Moscovie divisée suivant l'estendüe des royaumes, duchés, principautés, provinces et peuples," but that too doesn't help Putin's cause, as it translates to "White Russia or Muscovy divided according to the extent of kingdoms, duchies, principalities, provinces and peoples." But this label provides Putin with even less succor, as White Russia is the country that today goes by the name of Belarus.

Cartographers can debate just what exactly Sanson had in mind when he produced the map, but two things are clear: a place called Ukraine is depicted and a place called Russia is not. Which makes perfect sense, since the Cossacks called their country Ukraine and Russia is the term adopted by Peter I (a.k.a. Peter the Great) in the 18th century.

Putin's complete misreading of a very accessible map is disturbing. It raises serious questions about his ability to comprehend reality and to resist confirmation bias. Putin, evidently, is absolutely certain that Ukraine does not exist, despite the obvious reality of people calling themselves Ukrainian being embroiled in a war with Russia, and no evidence to the contrary can possibly convince him to change his mind.

Putin is so deeply ensconced in his alternate reality that even capital letters staring back at him remain invisible, just as the country he is hoping to bring to its knees is invisible.



I don't think the author here gives enough weight to the idea that Putin is relying upon the knowledge of the average Russian, or American for that matter, being so limited they cannot question his reading of the map -- especially since they weren't provided a close view of said map. In short, Putin probably isn't exhibiting senility or confirmation bias, but rather cynical propaganda.

All the same, it shows that Putin's claims about Ukraine's history are bunkum.
 
I have to be honest ad say that how on earth you are supposed to hit anything like that, I have no idea
Ukrainian helo pilots have shown a high degree of skill with their machines and I would bet good money that they can lob those S-13s with reasonable accuracy, especially if the target was a troop concentration and the objective was to keep the enemy's heads down while his ground forces were closing in.
 

0:06 what tank is that at 0:06?

IMG_2557.png


It might be a Leopard 2 like those in the vid, but the turret looks more rounded, like a Leopard 1.

ex-metal-track-links-german-leopard-1-tank-model_f.jpg


The Leo1 has been promised by the Belgiums and others, but I don't think they've been delivered yet.
 
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0:06 what tank is that at 0:06?

View attachment 722902

It might be a Leopard 2 like those in the vid, but the turret looks more rounded, like a Leopard 1.

View attachment 722903

The Leo1 has been promised by the Belgiums and others, but I don't think they've been delivered yet.
Looks like a Leopard 2A4. Damned inspiring video and the Ukrainian language sounds like something Daenerys Targaryen would speak.
 
My guess is they don't roll until early July. By then the UAF will have every likely Leo2 and the first Leo1s, plus more PGMs, Storm Shadows, etc.

I hope they move sooner, if possible. After the wear of the Bakhmut battle, the time to strike is when the enemy is tired and regrouping, and before they can redeploy to receive the assault.
 
I hope they move sooner, if possible.
Me too. There are 527 days until the POTUS election. Those 17.5 months represent a potentially-limited window for Ukraine to liberate as much as they can. I hope Zelenskyy has been well briefed on what happens to Ukraine support if the Nov 2024 elections go another way. With this in mind, I would like to see the UAF big push to launch asap.
 
Me too. There are 527 days until the POTUS election. Those 17.5 months represent a potentially-limited window for Ukraine to liberate as much as they can. I hope Zelenskyy has been well briefed on what happens to Ukraine support if the Nov 2024 elections go another way. With this in mind, I would like to see the UAF big push to launch asap.

Whether we're talking American elections, American boredom, Russian tiredness, or a larger Russian economic base altering a timeline, time is of the essence for the Ukrainians. Waste not the hour.

Further to that, a quick success may well keep supply-lines open longer. I fear the grind at Bakhmut has sapped American willingness to support Ukraine, especially with this debt-limit thing stretching out.
 
Just a brief note regarding elections: it's Congress that holds the purse strings, not the President.

As it stands, the U.S. has budgeted aid to Ukraine through 2024.

It's about actual cash in the cooler. If we default on loans in the next week, the future loans to pay for the legally-appropriated aid to Ukraine may not be secure. It's one thing for Congress to say "we're authorized to borrow this much money to help Ukraine", but if in the meantime we've defaulted on existing loans, there's no saying that money will be forthcoming. Probably will, but at higher interest rates and shorter terms, both of which can affect further aid packages because less money is available.

Nudging into the political and need to back away so forgive me if I don't pursue this train of thought further.
 
It's about actual cash in the cooler. If we default on loans in the next week, the future loans to pay for the legally-appropriated aid to Ukraine may not be secure. It's one thing for Congress to say "we're authorized to borrow this much money to help Ukraine", but if in the meantime we've defaulted on existing loans, there's no saying that money will be forthcoming. Probably will, but at higher interest rates and shorter terms, both of which can affect further aid packages because less money is available.

Nudging into the political and need to back away so forgive me if I don't pursue this train of thought further.
But think of the costs of a full-on conflict. NATO is fighting a proxy war with Russia right now. As costly as it is, far less so than WWIII.
 
From ISW:

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership. Girkin openly accused Prigozhin of planning to conduct a coup amid the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive and of continuously violating Russian censorship laws against the discreditation of the Russian army and military command.[19] Girkin warned of "mutiny" if Prigozhin is "allowed" to lead the Wagner Group. Girkin noted that Prigozhin ordered for the Wagner forces to withdraw to the Wagner bases deep inside of Russia on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He also claimed that Wagner personnel had never taken oaths promising not to engage in combat against Russia or its military.[20] Prigozhin stated on May 27 that Wagner will decide later on if it will fight in Ukraine or in another country, which indicates that Prigozhin retains the ability to command his own army outside of the formal Russian military command structure.[21] Girkin also recently criticized the Russian military command for failing to address Prigozhin's open and vulgar conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), even warning that Prigozhin will "devour" the Russian military officials who "bet" in his favor as he seeks to increase his political power.[22] A member of Girkin's Angry Patriots Club claimed that the conflict between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Prigozhin is developing into a conflict between the Russian military and Wagner forces but that Putin is not paying attention.[23] Girkin's and his associates' criticisms are largely consistent with Prigozhin's continued prioritization of his own personal aims over those of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the broader operational situation near Bakhmut.[24] Prigozhin's decision to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut and, apparently, from active combat on the eve of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is strategically questionable.

 

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