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Ukraine's Constitution Day.Forgive my if I missed it, but why 28 June?
Agreed - based on my (admittedly VERY limited understanding of these events, the personalities involced, etc.....), this does appear to be a likeliest outcome. Putin will want to avoid furthering weakening in his status in Russia by caving in to Prigozhin's demands. Shoigu and Gerasmov will be promoted, get some shiny medals, be lauded and quietly retired on the 'successful conclusion of the special military operation' ....... whatever that will mean at that point in time ...He's got to go with what he's got. As we say here in Tejas, it's not good to change horses midstream. Firing Shoigu or Gerasimov would only add weight to Prig's accusations and lend him more credibility.
Those two will be sidelined later, when the headlines are quieter, for this failure. But it won't be done now.