"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

[GTX]

This ain't over yet...

 

[machine shop tom]

So I understand correctly that Prigozhin is already sitting on the windowsill?

He's just washing the window. No worries.

 

[machine shop tom]

Lukashenko thinks he can contain Prigozhin?

 

[Glider]

Lukashenko thinks he can contain Prigozhin?

A nasty part of me thinks that the deal might be.

a) Oust Lukashenko
b) Belarus is yours

 

[SaparotRob]

I think Uncle Luka will grab anything he can get. This is the first time he is mentioned as anything other than a punchline.

 

[javlin]

Psych OP?? looking for traitors in the MoD?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Violent regime change wasn't unheard of before 1917

It wasn't unheard of? You seem to be agreeing with me.

 

[Admiral Beez]

lol ... "you stole my mercenaries!"

Which puts Wagner much closer to Kyiv, perhaps requiring Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi to redeloy some experienced units from the front to guard the Belarusian border. Maybe this was all a game so that Putin can again move on Ukraine's capital?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It wasn't unheard of? You seem to be agreeing with me.

He is.

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

There is no way Putin can come unscatched from this.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Which puts Wagner much closer to Kyiv, perhaps requiring Zelenskyy to redeloy some experienced units from the front to guard the Belarusian border. Maybe this was all a game so that Putin can again move on Ukraine's capital?

Perhaps, though I'd be skeptical. Just because the Prig is going to Minsk doesn't mean his troops are. I can't imagine Lukashenko would want that force in his country for exactly your reason.

From Reuters:


The office of Alexander Lukashenko said the decision to halt further movement of Wagner fighters was brokered by the Belarusian president, with Putin's approval, in return for guarantees for their safety.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Prigozhin himself will move to Belarus under the deal. Peskov said Lukashenko had offered to mediate because he had known the mercenary leader personally for around 20 years.

Rebel Russian mercenaries turn back short of Moscow 'to avoid bloodshed'

The Kremlin will drop charges again Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who will move to Belarus under a deal to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin led against Russia's military leadership.

www.reuters.com

The verbiage "Prigozhin himself" implies that his forces won't be welcomed.

I can't help but note that this happened shortly after the deployment of nukes to Belarus, though I'm unsure if that is actually significant. It looks to me like Lukashenko is trying to make himself more important to Moscow, but it's hard to say.

Also deserving of note is that Putin felt the need to negotiate a solution. It bespeaks weakness that, as noted above, will certainly hurt his standing.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Just because the Prig is going to Minsk doesn't mean his troops are.

He's a deadman if he's not surrounded by Wagner men. Plus, the men themselves are at risk if separated from their leader.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

He's a deadman if he's not surrounded by Wagner men. Plus, the men themselves are at risk if separated from their leader.

No argument here, but he's a mercenary. Loyalty is not a big quality there.

As for himself, either way, he's still dead. It's only a matter of time, and it doesn't matter if all Wagner is with him. He's dead, it just hasn't come to pass yet.

 

[SaparotRob]

There's something not right to me. Prig (nice nickname, Thump!) has the most effective non-Ukrainian affiliated force in the area. His march on Moscow was lightly opposed and seemed to be gaining support along the way. Did he feel he didn't think it through enough and wouldn't know what to do as czar? Would he shy away from that? He got rid of Ukraine's "secret" weapon, Gerasimov and Shoigu, which can be spun to the benefit for both him and Putin. Lukashenko's involvement helps Putin, I think, but Prig is helping a Putin ally.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

There's something not right to me. Prig (nice nickname, Thump!) has the most effective non-Ukrainian affiliated force in the area. His march on Moscow was lightly opposed and seemed to be gaining support along the way. Did he feel he didn't think it through enough and wouldn't know what to do as czar? Would he shy away from that? He got rid of Ukraine's "secret" weapon, Gerasimov and Shoigu, which can be spun to the benefit for both him and Putin. Lukashenko's involvement helps Putin, I think, but Prig is helping a Putin ally.

It remains to be seen whether or not Shoigu or Gerasimov are sent packing. Such a move would further undermine Putin's power, as it would show that he can be forced into a decision.

I think the Prig will be dead before Shoigu is unemployed.

 

[javlin]

I think the Prig will be dead before Shoigu is unemployed

Looked more like a movie/propaganda @Rostov than anything for 24hrs. now this might feed your thoughts on his time left on Earth but if continues to live(prig) psych op?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Looked more like a movie/propaganda @Rostov than anything for 24hrs. now this might feed your thoughts on his time left on Earth but if continues to live(prig) psych op?

Putin has a choice here: he can either have Prig killed, or he can look like a leader who cannot deal with threats. Prigozhin will not be safe in Belarus anyway, given the government's leanings.

 

[machine shop tom]

If I was one of Prigozhin's troops I' d be looking to distance myself from that part of the world ASAP.

 

[SaparotRob]

North Korea ain't looking so bad these days, eh?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

If I was one of Prigozhin's troops I' d be looking to distance myself from that part of the world ASAP.

Probably downloading Ukraine's surrender app as we type.