fubar57
General
Hopefully that's going to happen
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter XBe02Drvr
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swampyankee
Chief Master Sergeant
- 4,002
- Jun 25, 2013
Possibly if they don't get paid. Certainly, there are many historical examples of mercenary forces doing just that. Even if they do get paid.
buffnut453
Captain
It's not clear how much, if any, of Wagner will remain independent from the Russian MOD. Per this article, African nations established agreements with Russia (not with Wagner) and it was Russia that subcontracted the work to Wagner:
Wagner and Russia are here to stay in Africa, says Kremlin’s top diplomat
France is closely monitoring the continent where it was squeezed by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries, before the warlord’s mutiny against Vladimir Putin.
Even if the African teams remain as PMCs under Wagner, that doesn't answer the question of how the Wagner personnel in Belarus will be funded, other than by skimming other contracts. Such a move wouldn't come as a surprise to me but it's contingent on Wagner retaining those contracts for its work in Africa and elsewhere.
This is an interesting, snarly mess which, IMHO, will continue to distract Moscow and the Russian MOD from the mission in Ukraine.
buffnut453
Captain
Yep...which is why the status of the Wagnerites in Belarus is such an interesting question. If they aren't getting paid, then who knows what will happen. They can't go back to Russia so the only option is finding mercenary work elsewhere, and that will be a lot harder if the Wagner forces in Africa get nationalized.
Hmmm...armed mercenaries with a track record of violence who aren't being paid and don't have a clear path forward. What could possibly go wrong?
This could become a huge distraction for Lukashenko, as well as the Russian MOD.
Snautzer01
Honourably banned
- 42,447
- Mar 26, 2007
Bingo. It will be something to watch how putin will do this. Money is there but if a guy next to you is paid several times you earn there will be trouble and as the the wagners went to moscow will the recieve what they need to be a fighting force it was.. dont think so and the convict deal will have died right there.
buffnut453
Captain
The other factor to consider is how many Wagner contracts will continue into the future. If I was the leader of an African nation that had Wagner forces within its borders, I'd be getting very nervous. After all, Wagner initiated a mutiny in its own country. What odds Wagnerites would foment a coup and topple the leadership in an African nation?
Lots and LOTS of questions and imponderables.
Lots and LOTS of questions and imponderables.
Snautzer01
Honourably banned
- 42,447
- Mar 26, 2007
And how will he acces that? Kind of difficult i guess now.
Admiral Beez
Major
Even if they're being paid, they don't want to sit in Belarussian exile forever with nothing to do. If I was Wagner I'd be looking to stir up some sh#t for Putin via hitting Lukashenko. So, we join forces with the Belarusian resistance who are working to get Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya into power. Strange bedfellows indeed, but your enemy's enemy is my friend.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Look at the unrest they're taking part in in Sudan:
The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been supplying Sudan's Rapid Support Forces with missiles to aid their fight against the country's army, Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources have told CNN.
The sources said the surface-to-air missiles have significantly buttressed RSF paramilitary fighters and their leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo as he battles for power with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan's military ruler and the head of its armed forces.
In bordering Libya, where a Wagner-backed rogue general, Khalifa Haftar, controls swathes of land, satellite imagery supports these claims, showing an unusual uptick in activity on Wagner bases.
[...]
Satellite images analyzed by CNN and open-source group "All Eyes on Wagner" show one Russian transport plane shuttling between two key Libyan airbases belonging to Haftar and used by the sanctioned Russian fighting group.
Haftar has backed the RSF, sources say, although he denies taking sides. And increased Wagner activity at Haftar's bases, combined with claims by Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources, suggests that both Russia and the Libyan general may have been preparing to support the RSF even before the eruption of violence.
The uptick in movement by the Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft started two days before the conflict in Sudan began on Saturday, and continued until at least Wednesday, according to satellite images and Netherlands-based open-source specialist Gerjon.
That plane, one of a class of aircraft known by the NATO designation Candid, flew from Haftar's Khadim airbase in Libya to the Syrian coastal city of Latakia – where Russia has a major airbase – on Thursday, April 13. The next day, it flew from Latakia back to Khadim. The day after that, it flew again to another Haftar airbase in Libya's Jufra. It parked in a secluded area, something flight tracker Gerjon considered highly unusual. This was the day the conflict erupted.
The transport plane returned to Latakia on Tuesday before flying back to the Libyan militia airbase of Khadim and then to Jufra, according to Gerjon's research. That day, Russia airdropped surface-to-air missiles to Dagalo's militia positions in northwest Sudan, according to regional and Sudanese sources.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Hard to say. I'd have a Swiss bank account or three were I in his shoes, though.
Snautzer01
Honourably banned
- 42,447
- Mar 26, 2007
The Swiss are always on the winners side. They have no moral but for the money god. Now Prig lost. They will ride the high horse now and block.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Meh, they've made their disdain for high-horsing it pretty plain.
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,325
- Jul 5, 2015
This is a nice example of what may happen when you don't pay them, you betray them, murder their leaders and, to top it off, you dismember their ambassadors.
Catalan Company - Wikipedia
Escuadrilla Azul
Tech Sergeant
- 1,801
- Feb 27, 2020
Could all this show be a way to insert a trojan horse in Belarus and oust Luka for lack of more support for the
I know seems a stupid way to do that but after the stupidity of the invasión any thing could be posible.
Even that the show was made to detect generals and oligarcs with flagging support for the master strategist.
buffnut453
Captain
I don't think the mutiny was a choreographed event. The simple act of Prigozhin marching on Moscow showed the entire world that Putin isn't as strong as he makes out. That's a pretty fatal flaw to expose just to oust your favourite pet in Belarus.
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,325
- Jul 5, 2015
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,325
- Jul 5, 2015
If you have lost track of all "accidents" here there is a list:
en.m.wikipedia.org
Suspicious deaths of Russian businesspeople (2022–2023) - Wikipedia
Another train of oldtimers spotted - more rolling bombs?
View: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1674472659818520584
View: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1674472659818520584
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,325
- Jul 5, 2015
Not as old timers as this ones:
Russian rifles at a former Russian position in Zaporizhzhia
The Mosint rifle, developed from 1882 to 1891, was used by the armed forces of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and various other states. It is one of the most mass-produced military bolt-action rifles in history, with over 37 million units produced since 1891
(even if the tweet is not visible clicking on it works)
View: https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1674382647303327747
