We will never know. Future historians will try to estimate, probably.I'm wondering how many of those "Russian separatists" still prefer Russia over Ukraine. Not the ones imported by Putin.
Just for info. The last professional independent social surveys in the first half of 2013 have indicated that just about 30% of the population in Crimea wanted unification with Russian Federation. Percentage in the East of Ukraine was similar. I mention the first half of the year because Kremlin started a massive propaganda campaign in the summer of 2013, which was actually a preparation phase for the invasions of 2014.