"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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buffnut453 said:
Exactly. This is the fundamental difference between this Russian aggression and actions by US and other Coalition partners over the past 20 years. The US and Coalition partners typically tried very hard to avoid civilian casualties. They weren't perfect. Mistakes were made and, on a few occasions, actions were deliberately taken which went against rules of engagement and killed people unnecessarily. However, in those latter situations, the actors typically were tried in court.

What we're seeing in Ukraine is indiscriminate action against civilians without any attempt to determine if there's a threat. There are no TTPs in place of the kind that @marathag outlined. The Western military forces trained and practiced those types of TTPs rigourously prior to deployment and throughout their time downrange. This is probably another pointer to (a) the lower relative training level of Russian forces (you can't expect conscripts to perform these types of TTPs in complex operational environments), and (b) the lack of Russian leadership planning and preparation.
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Before we deployed to Iraq, we sat through hours of ROE training, and ran through scenarios of when we could engage and when we could not. We even spent time in field training where actors were used in "real life" scenarios for us to practice and train on.

Then so know one was confused, we had an "ROE Card" that laid out the rules of engagement that we carried in our breast pocket every time we left the wire.

We had one instance where we thought this guy was setting up rocket launchers on his property. We "air assaulted" his house and captured him without firing a shot and killing anyone. It turned out it was drill equipment and he was drilling a well on his property and was released. The US commander returned later that evening to personally apologize and presented him with assistance in digging the well and other supplies.

I am fairly confident had we been Russian troops this would have ended differently…

Same in Kosovo. We treated the local population with respect and kindness. Whenever we landed the children would run out and greet us. People would come and talk to us. When we visited the Russian "protected" sectors, the people feared the Russian "peace keepers." The people told us they were abused and the Russians looted and treated them rather poorly.

There is a difference in how both sides view human life in general. There is a huge difference in military discipline.
 
Another thing to point out in the difference between the US/Coalition and Russians and civilian casualties is that many of the area where the US/Coalition has fought is further complicated by the fact that the enemy lacks empathy for human life. They regularly use civilians as human shields. They would put AA guns in school yards for example, or put explosive vests on children. Yet, we still made every effort to limit civilian casualties.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
That and the fact that reality is setting in that the Ukrainians have beaten them to a stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out here, they can negotiate from a strong standpoint. This goes back to the discussions earlier about cowering down to Putler and giving in to his demands. I'm glad they have not done that yet.
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If the Ukranians cannot now retake all of D&L and the Black Sea coastline I think there's strong odds the Russians will call a ceasefire and Ukraine will never get this territory back. If the Russians say we're not leaving, is Ukraine going to recommence hostilties? The West won't support that as much as a Ukraine under attack. So, Ukraine needs to refuse to negotiate until they've recaptured as much land as they can live with.
 
Update on Russian casualties:

The Russian defence ministry has given an update on its military casualties – for only the second time – claiming 1,351 of its soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded, news agency Ria Novosti reports.

Ukrainian military sources have previously estimated that as many as 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, though this figure may include injured as well as dead. US intelligence suggests half that number may have died.

The first update from the Russian defence ministry on casualties was on 2 March, and stated that 498 servicemen had died during the invasion.
 
Admiral Beez said:
If the Ukranians cannot now retake all of D&L and the Black Sea coastline I think there's strong odds the Russians will call a ceasefire and Ukraine will never get this territory back. If the Russians say we're not leaving, is Ukraine going to recommence hostilties? The West won't support that as much as a Ukraine under attack. So, Ukraine needs to refuse to negotiate until they've recaptured as much land as they can live with.
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Certainly a possibility, but I think Ukraine would still have the upper hand. It all depends on how long Russia would have to bolster their forces. The tables would turn and the Russians would be the defender which the situation could likely favor. Remember though that in the long term it would likely lead to a long insurgency and I don't think Russia could win that. Long drawn out insurgencies destroy morale and erode support from the civilian populations back home.

It's still a no win situation for Putler.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Certainly a possibility, but I think Ukraine would still have the upper hand.
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I worry that the West will betray Ukraine in the peace, demanding that once a ceasefire is declared Ukraine accept sh#tty terms in order to restart capital flows. I just don't think the West has the unity and attention span to hold a now stood down Russia to the current level of economic and political sanctions for a decade or longer.
 
This is interesting (and a pretty impressive piece of journalism) because it's right where things are happening with the Ukrainian pushback of Russian forces west of Kyiv.


UPDATE: The link isn't working correctly....it's the video at the top right of the page titled "Back to the town destroyed in the battle for Kyiv." Try this instead:

 
Admiral Beez said:
I worry that the West will betray Ukraine in the peace, demanding that once a ceasefire is declared Ukraine accept sh#tty terms in order to restart capital flows. I just don't think the West has the unity and attention span to hold a now stood down Russia to the current level of economic and political sanctions for a decade or longer.
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I disagree. I think the west is more unified than ever. This is the new future front line of the Cold War II. It's in the best interest of the west to see this through.

The Russian civilian population may not see it now, but Putler failing and being toppled is in their best interest as well. Then it would be in the west's best interest to try and help Russia rebuild and create a less corrupt government and economic system where they can strive peacefully. I fear the west will fail in doing that, and 20 years later we will be doing this all over again.
 
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European countries are certainly looking to the long term already with a deal being struck for the US to supply LNG to Europe to
start the process of lower to no dependence on Russian supplies. This is how they will continue to sanction Russia without needing
to sanction them.

No country can afford a large military without the income required and Russia wasn't exactly flush when you look at their GDP, even before sanctions.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Then it would be in the west's best interest to try and help Russia rebuild and create a less corrupt government and economic system where they can strive peacefully. I fear the west will fail in doing that, and 20 years later we will be doing this all over again.
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Agreed. I think it was a major blunder of the West to essentially not aid Russia's rebuild after the dissolution of the USSR.
 
Agreed. I think we really sewed the seeds for Putler, and we are seeing the fruits of that now.

It's not much different than Germany post WW2. Had the allies treated post war Germany differently than they did, Germany would not have grown into the country it is today.
 
Now this is REALLY INTERESTING:

Two more senior Russian commanders have been killed - one of them apparently died after being attacked by his own men, a Western official has said.

The commanding officer of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, a colonel, was deliberately run over by his own troops as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade, the official said.

"That just gives an insight into perhaps some of the morale challenges that Russian forces are having," they added.

However other reports suggested the colonel - named as Yuri Medvedev - had suffered leg injuries and had been evacuated to Belarus.

A seventh general (commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army) was also killed. The Kremlin has not yet responded to the claims.

The BBC has not been able to confirm this independently.


The simple fact that a brigade is being commanded by a colonel perhaps indicates something amiss. Equally, it could reflect lack of understanding by the journalist of military rank structures.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Agreed. I think we really sewed the seeds for Putler, and we are seeing the fruits of that now.

It's not much different than Germany post WW2. Had the allies treated post war Germany differently than they did, Germany would not have grown into the country it is today.
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Exactly. The Marshall Plan, and especially the Berlin Airlift reinforcing our commitment to rebuilding any part of Germany we controlled, was crucial in ensuring that Germany evolved into a thriving democracy post-WWII, integrated with the rest of Europe. The Marshall Plan reaped rewards far beyond the costs incurred in executing it.

Compare and contrast that to the post-Versailles treatment of Weimar Germany, and how that treatment allowed for the rise of not only Hitler but widespread right-wing revanchism in general.

I believe, and I don't have much in the way of sourcing for this although I'm sure I could find some, that had we invested both capital and attention in the 90s to a recovering Russia, we would not be where we are today.
 
buffnut453 said:
Now this is REALLY INTERESTING:

Two more senior Russian commanders have been killed - one of them apparently died after being attacked by his own men, a Western official has said.

The commanding officer of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, a colonel, was deliberately run over by his own troops as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade, the official said.

"That just gives an insight into perhaps some of the morale challenges that Russian forces are having," they added.

However other reports suggested the colonel - named as Yuri Medvedev - had suffered leg injuries and had been evacuated to Belarus.

A seventh general (commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army) was also killed. The Kremlin has not yet responded to the claims.

The BBC has not been able to confirm this independently.


The simple fact that a brigade is being commanded by a colonel perhaps indicates something amiss. Equally, it could reflect lack of understanding by the journalist of military rank structures.
Click to expand...

From this American's perspective, with several Vietnam War veterans in his family, fragging only occurs in demoralized troops. Well-led, well-supplied troops with a clear sense of mission will generally follow through on plans if for no other reason than survival, but often with more than that as a motivational driver.
 
WARSPITER said:
European countries are certainly looking to the long term already with a deal being struck for the US to supply LNG to Europe to start the process of lower to no dependence on Russian supplies.
Click to expand...
Here in Canada we have a surplus of natural gas but no where to sell it besides domestic and US markets. A new drive to LNG exports would be a nice economic boom for the Canadian economy, ports, indigenous peoples and much more. The port of Churchill, Manitoba would be ideal, being close via the Arctic Bridge to Europe and in a remote area of Canada needing investment.

Northern energy hub? | Wilderness Committee

Shipping oil by rail across northern Manitoba could be just the beginning. A government report suggests exporting liquified natural gas (LNG) from the Port of Churchill and eventually building a pipeline for Alberta bitumen.
www.wildernesscommittee.org www.wildernesscommittee.org
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Sounds like the US SIGINT is passing on time/place. With absolutely terrible communications security anyone listening will know the best time and place to wack these Generals.
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My understanding is that Russian coms were reliant upon encrypted satellite phone links which have been shattered by air assault in-country, meaning the Russians are actually using civilian cell networks and the Ukrainians are using that info to target.

Of course, Western intel is being shared, but I'm not sure that's so real-time that it can be passed on to the Ukrainians for these targeted kills -- if that's indeed what they are.
 
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