Phew! I haven't been here since page 16 (!) and man, this thing has grown! I'll have to go read through the whole lot again, but a few thoughts on a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It's a subject I recently wrote about. I'm a staff-writer for an online business magazine, with my input concentrating on aviation subjects, naturlich, and I put something up recently on this very subject.
Firstly, NATO: NATO Secretary-of-State Jens Stoltenburg has emphatically stated that NATO won't instigate a no-fly zone because of the fear of dragging European nations into full scale war. The reason behind this is Article 5 of the NATO Charter that states that an attack against one NATO member state is an attack against all NATO member states. Putin has stated that any incursion into Ukrainian airspace by a third party operative would be considered an act of war. This means that NATO's hands are tied unless it wants war with Russia, which no one, not even the Russians want.
So, the idea of a non- NATO no-fly zone has been toyed with and discussed, but at this stage there isn't the stomach for it for various reasons and we'll get to those soon. It has been proposed that a UN mandated no-fly zone is an option. It would have one immediate effect in that if the UN did propose such a resolution, like its previous one in which the overwhelming majority voted for Russia leaving Ukraine, it would be a more tangible recognition that the situation would be viewed as Russia versus the World in supporting such an action and not just Russia versus NATO, which it currently is, because of the persistent calls for a NATO no-fly zone.
The next point is that it then renders Article 5 invalid as the resolution would be implemented by the UN, not NATO, even though NATO member states would be providing the bulk of the equipment required to enforce a no-fly zone. The political difference here is the crux of the matter. If a UN member state aircraft were shot down, which also happened to be a NATO member state, because the no-fly zone was UN mandated, Article 5 would not apply.
Some analysts have proposed a limited UN mandated no-fly zone over the western half of Ukraine to protect refugees, which is doable and would have political support from world leaders owing to the humanitarian slant. This would focus on centres like Lviv, which is far enough to the west to be out of range of Russian military action at this stage and from where the humanitarian bodies are based within the country in aiding the refugee crisis.
The problem with all this is it doesn't consider the Russian reaction if the UN gets involved. Putin has "nuclear messaged" before, a term that indicates a threat of the use of nuclear weapons to enforce a point (I wrote a piece on this, too), which could see the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons into the warzone.
Another point that has been raised regarding the action over the east of the country is that thus far, Russian air capability has been of limited application, certainly against what has been expected and what Russia has within its arsenal. What has been making appearances are Su-34 and Su-25 strike aircraft carrying largely 'dumb' weapons as opposed to 'smart' weapons and, as predicted, losses have been mounting, the Ukrainians having shot down both types. Helicopters, such as Mil-17s, Mil-24s, Mil-28s and Ka-52s have all been active and examples of all have been lost to ground fire.
This has led observers to point out that the majority of the destruction wrought by the Russians so far has been by artillery and missiles, so, some have stated, a no-fly zone over the east would be of little consequence. Imposing one would, of course then prompt calls for NATO/UN aircraft to carry out strikes against Russian supply lines etc, which definitely would invoke war...
Some photos I had put in my article, the Rafale M has been conducting patrols along the Polish border, NATO nation Vipers, Rivet Joint EW aircraft are currently on anti-air patrols and would support a no-fly zone and a Ukrainian Su-27, a nice piccie I had to find a use for.
Rafale M
NATO Vipers
Rivet Joint
Su-27
Excuse the lengthy post... Off to paint the deck before the summer sun fades.
thriftylalife.com
buffnut453 got there first. Right call.
