Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
How do you get this past a Russian Security Council veto?
More like sitting on a pointy fence.The Chinese are running along a narrow bridge.
Mr Nyet is alive and well, so it seems. It wouldn't if Russia did choose to veto within the UNSC, but that shouldn't be a reason why it shouldn't be voted on nonetheless. The political ramifications are great and it still signals that this fight is Russia versus the world, not Russia versus NATO or Ukraine. It needn't necessarily be mentioned that the rest of the world oppose this invasion, so even to be seen to have attempted and failed is better than to have done nothing.
Agreed. In the meantime, however, in our neck of the woods they continue with their plans in the Indo-Pacific...China is showing a diffidence that tells the truth about how their leadership see themselves in the world. They are awaiting events to inform their decision, rather than exercising power to influence those events.
China will likely abstain, leaving US, UK, and France voting to censure Russia. Fat lot of good that does, because we already know who's lined up where.
Agreed. In the meantime, however, in our neck of the woods they continue with their plans in the Indo-Pacific...
Solomon Islands defends plans to expand security ties with China, as Canberra, Wellington express concern
Abstention doesn't stop a vote from going ahead. The thing is, even if a limited no-fly zone could be imposed over Western Ukraine, the risks are high and it does depend on world nations and their commitment. If it is angled toward humanitarian reasons, the Russians would look real bad since they are playing the humanitarian crisis card at the moment. The rest of the world is denouncing Russian claims by stating that the end of the conflict and Russian military withdrawal is the only answer to the humanitarian crisis, naturally, but this signals a very different intent and if Russia was to vote against, they look even worse than they do now.
And I don't think at this point he cares about optics. I mean, he's already rolled the dice.
Russia will, I think, pull back into defensive positions not because of world opinion, but because they are running out of military to accomplish the mission they set themselves to achieve.
Putin might not, but despite his claim that he is Russia, the country is not totally independent of the world. Russia has a lot to answer for already over this war and the damage has been done. Again though, the Russian ambassador cannot be seen to be making claims about the humanitarian crisis on one hand and preventing a resolution from going ahead that aids in the protection of refugees on the other.
Very true, as is currently being demonstrated, but what happens afterwards is vital and world opinion will influence that considerably. Russia's list of allies is getting smaller and the ramifications from this war will be enormous, even if it manages to dethrone Zelenskiy. Regional stability has been completely altered and it will result in an escalation of military capability against Russia in Eastern Europe as both sides will bolster their defences at the Ukraine/Belorussian borders with NATO nations. Ukraine won't have the capability to house the weapons that Putin is afraid of, but Romania and Poland most definitely will, as will the Baltic states. The future for Russia is bleak.
A colossal misjudgment.
In particular that the Ukraine is a very large country and to declare a No Fly Zone would be a huge undertaking as you are in effect saying that you are going to control the sky 24/7 every day.
The message to the Russian Leaders would be clear, NATO can and will do immense damage to your forces should you repeat this action. To the troops on the ground, the message is that you are even more vulnerable than you thought and the impact on morale is likely to be significant.
We have to be realistic.