"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

[FLYBOYJ]

The T-14 may not be in Ukraine, simply because Moscow doesn't have enough to actually send. As previously reported, Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod first said the T-14 would be delivered in 2018. Then the distribution of the first nine tanks would come in 2019. After this date came and went, the leadership said 20 would be tested and 80 would be ready by the end of 2021.

We Might Know Why Russia's New Armata Tank Is Missing from Ukraine

The T-14 Armata tank may not be in Ukraine, simply because Moscow doesn't have enough to actually send into battle.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[SaparotRob]

One thing's for sure, this war is going to do great for Western combat aircraft manufacturers. Aircraft like the Gripen and Viper are going to see increased sales, I reckon, possibly even Rafale, Eurofighter and F-35 - Germany has recently ordered the latter and has an EW variant of the Typhoon on the way to replace its Tornadoes following its massive defence expenditure increase...

After watching a few Mentour Pilot videos, there's going to be a lot of worthless Boeing and Airbus products being removed from inventory. Maybe there were too many airliners before but now? Boeing and Airbus stock are looking good too.

 

[nuuumannn]

Russian nuclear capability is always going to be its silver bullet and Putin wields it like it is his best leverage, which in fact it is. The state of the Russian nuclear forces cannot be verified, but the Strategic Rocket Forces, a separate branch of the Russian armed forces since the Soviet Union days is a multi-faceted arm that comprises more than just ICBMs in silos beyond the Caucasus. Non-strategic weapons on TELS comprise some of the divisions of the RSM, which are quite possibly being deployed near the border with Ukraine as we speak. These could be deadly and aside from what could be predicted as decay in quality of the personnel, equipment and training standards of the home based fixed units, it's fair to say these would be trained to a high state of readiness given their nature. Incidentally, the RSM's motto, "After Us, Silence" is rather chilling.

Putin has a wide array of nuclear devices to choose from. Once he made his "high alert" speech, nuclear capable naval units put to sea in the Baltic and RSM forces were put on a high state of readiness, which is worrying. Presumably air launched cruise missile units of Frontal Aviation have also ben put on a alert too, although thus far we have not seen use of the VVS' big bomber units operating the fearsome Tu-22M-3, which saw combat over Syria and Chechnya.

Western analysts argue that the "high alert" speech and the most recent "nuclear war" statement following NATO's announcement of the placing of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine could well be what's known as "nuclear messaging", stating an intent, but not with the aim of actually using deployed nuclear weapons, to send a message rather than as a prelude to action. At least, that's what we are wanting to believe, but Putin is, above all, unpredictable and will use whatever tool he has in his diplomatic tool kit to gain some kind of leverage.

Nevertheless, as mentioned before, it's worth keeping in mind that all of this is Putin signalling to his people that he is a strong man, not specifically to the rest of us, although it doesn't do his image any harm knowing the rest of the world is unnerved by him. This public perception has always been the case and positive image promotion is paramount to the post-Soviet Russian government. When Putin's popularity waned following the Kursk disaster, a charm offensive was launched and images of him looking dapper atop horses without his shirt on and doing judo - as the head of the World judo body, no less, appeared in greater number.

I remember I was in Russia shortly after the Kursk was lost and I spoke casually to a few people about how they felt about Putin and results were varied, most initially thought he was a fresh change from the post USSR chaos of Yeltsin, but many lost faith following his inaction over the Kursk loss. That disaster really struck home in Russia and people feared he would become just like the former Soviet leaders they despised from the past. I went to the naval museum in St Petersburg and there was a model of the Kursk in the foyer with a big wreath and flowers scattered around it. Very poignant.

One thing is for sure, Putin is nothing if not unpredictable, but the cracks are showing now the pressure is mounting. People back in Russia are beginning to see the truth, but a lot of work has been done to cultivate a slanted image of this particular conflict...

 

[nuuumannn]

Boeing and Airbus stock are looking good too.

At this point Boeing and Airbus have nothing to fear, they are both big companies with lots of clout. The 737 Max crisis shook Boeing and the public's perception of the firm to its core, but it's still there getting orders and the Max is selling despite its reputation. Airbus is facing tribulations with airlines refusing to accept aircraft they have ordered because of reduced requirement following covid, not to mention the peeling skin legal issue with Qatar, but again, recent airshow orders in Singapore show that both firms are doing okay despite current global conditions.

A little controversy every now and then is good for the airline industry. It keeps airlines and manufacturers honest. Big business is a fickle mistress and airlines in particular need to become more resilient to industry shocks to remain competitive. This crisis stuff is good news for the consumer, despite falling sales and a global pandemic, as, once the dust settles, the industry will be forced to rethink its approach and try a different way of doing things.

Obviously, the rising fuel cost because of war in Ukraine will stifle people's immediate plans to travel as the cost of air fares is currently on the up because of the cost increases in fuel. Add to that the fact that airlines can now no longer fly through Russian airspace means that round the world journeys now take much longer because they have been re-routed through less turbulent airspace and so now is not the best time to travel overseas.

 

[SaparotRob]

Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

"Vlad? Vasiliy? Dmitriy? Oleg? You all hate it too, no? All of the tank regiment I see..."

"What roadsigns, dammit? The Ukrainians have taken them all down!"

 

[wlewisiii]

The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?

Too expensive to produce and so they're stuck using the old tanks. Plus the sanctions have shut down that plant O_O

As a result &according to Wiki (granted but it's what we have):
"In August 2021, Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko said that the Russian Armed Forces would receive 20 T-14 Armata tanks by the end of 2021.[35]​ On August 23, a Rostec official said that the company had shipped an unspecified number of T-14 tanks in an "experimental batch" to Russian Armed Forces.[36]​ In November 2021, state trials were in progress and expected to be completed in 2022, and a "pilot batch" of twenty tanks was yet to be delivered to the armed forces.[37]​[38]"​

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Russians saying now that all those objectives they had for the first few days of the "Military Exercise" are NOT REALLY what they wanted. Like Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do That"!

It makes sense. They've already worked Herman's "I know you are, but what am I?" to death and back.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?

I haven't. My son, who follows Russian armor development fairly closely, tells me they only have about 20 of them.

 

[JDCAVE]

Hi JDCAVE,
Sorry, I don't quite get your meaning.

Regards
Jagdflieger

That the aircraft are circa 1980's-1990's. What isn't, was purchased from Australia, although that may be incorrect and I stand to be corrected.

ARCHIVED - CF-18 Hornet Estimated Life Expectancy - Canada.ca

This report is about the estimated life expectancy of the CF 18 Hornet.

www.canada.ca

Jim

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukraine is on the offensive on many fronts. It's essential that they push the Russians as far back as possible before a ceasefire is called and negotiations begin. The Russians will demand at the very best that they hold the lands they now occupy. What does Ukraine need to accomplish the biggest land grab in the shortest time? Is more MANPATS, MANPADS, secure coms, guns and bullets enough? What does Ukraine need to regain as much ground it can before a ceasefire? My guess is Ukraine has at best two weeks before some level of ceasefire is called.

I'd add to that list attack drones, heavy-duty trucks, and fuel to provide for mobility, at the least.

 

[JDCAVE]

That the aircraft are circa 1980's-1990's. What isn't, was purchased fro Australia, although that may be incorrect and I stand to be corrected.

ARCHIVED - CF-18 Hornet Estimated Life Expectancy - Canada.ca

This report is about the estimated life expectancy of the CF 18 Hornet.

www.canada.ca

Jim

Hmmm! This is a laugh! They've been on this Merry-go-Round for 12 years now.

Canada circles back to Lockheed for F-35s

The government plans to spend up to C$19B to buy warplanes to upgrade the Royal Canadian Air Force.

www.politico.com

wonder what Jagmeet thinks of this!

Jim

 

[J_P_C]

Hi J_P_C,

one could also say - and I think there is nothing wrong by saying this; Poland is aware that due to being cut of from spare supplies via Belarus and the Ukraine that almost 40% of
it's interceptor/strike force (30 MiG 29's incl. 9 ex Luftwaffe) might very soon be rendered useless. (Not taking into account the SU 22's) Therefore offer them to the Ukraine/USA in exchange for e.g. 20 F-16. That is actually what this deal is really about.
If the Ukrainian Air-force (pilots) are even able to operate these (modified) MiG 29's and how many would be another topic or issue.
That Poland in view of the present situation isn't just standing by and simply watching the demise of a large portions of it's Air-force is understandable.

In regards to technical changes, compatibility to Ukraine's MiG 29 and it's pilots see:

The modernized Mig-29 Fulcrums of 23 BLT Polish Air Force - Aviation Report - ENG

Sily Powietrzne (Polish Air Force) received its first MiG 29 in 1989, equipping the 1 ELT (Eskadra Lotnictwa Taktycznego) based in Minsk Mazowiecki, 45Km far from Warszawa. Between 1995-96 other 10 MiG 29 arrived from the Czech Republic, and the last batch in 2004 when Germany delivered 22 MiG...

en.aviation-report.com

Regards
Jagdflieger

sorry to say so but article you have to bring up is filled with different quality truths and semi-truths and mismatched. The equipment standard described in this article is related to around 10 out of 30 remaining in service PAF's MIGs, another 10 have bee pretty much semi- modernized and last 10 is barely different from 9.12 batch standard. Simply founds have been haltd within middle of modification work. more important factor is that life extension or rather "on condition" maitenance philosophy havent been introduced and unified there some indications of extensive airframe fatigue in within critical regions. for the question if PAFs Migs are identhical with this one by Ukraine - no they are different but sure easier to handle than F16 or any other equipment which is totally unrealistic in my opinion. For the question if Poland should transfer Migs to ukraine my answer is of course we should and im really obsed about way how it was screwed by politicians - all interested parties - Ukrainians- because they make this option public, Polish I because they have tried use Americans as a smoke screen, and Americans because of lacke coordination between DoD and as wel because they have tried to make all this risking only with their allies accepting minimal/none risk.

 

[Jabberwocky]

Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?

Nope. Big quadjets are dead. ETOPS and economics has seen to that.
There's also still an oversupply of widebodies, as long haul international travel is still ~40% below pre-COVID levels.

Airbus is turning the A380 FAL into a production line for more A321s and the last 747 is due for delivery in October this year. Boeing is being tight-lipped about what it's going to do with the 747 FAL at Everett, but rumour is that it's going to take on some 777X work and maybe freighter conversions.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

At this point Boeing and Airbus have nothing to fear, they are both big companies with lots of clout. The 737 Max crisis shook Boeing and the public's perception of the firm to its core, but it's still there getting orders and the Max is selling despite its reputation. Airbus is facing tribulations with airlines refusing to accept aircraft they have ordered because of reduced requirement following covid, not to mention the peeling skin legal issue with Qatar, but again, recent airshow orders in Singapore show that both firms are doing okay despite current global conditions.

A little controversy every now and then is good for the airline industry. It keeps airlines and manufacturers honest. Big business is a fickle mistress and airlines in particular need to become more resilient to industry shocks to remain competitive. This crisis stuff is good news for the consumer, despite falling sales and a global pandemic, as, once the dust settles, the industry will be forced to rethink its approach and try a different way of doing things.

Obviously, the rising fuel cost because of war in Ukraine will stifle people's immediate plans to travel as the cost of air fares is currently on the up because of the cost increases in fuel. Add to that the fact that airlines can now no longer fly through Russian airspace means that round the world journeys now take much longer because they have been re-routed through less turbulent airspace and so now is not the best time to travel overseas.

The Max were unnecessary and tragic, however, Boeing has learned and is making the changes it needs to make. The company will become stronger and will recover from it. My heart still goes out to those affected and the victims.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?

No.

The industry is moving to smaller more efficient two engine aircraft such as the 787 and A350.

 

[wlewisiii]

I have an acquaintence who, in another life, was a US Army sniper and a very thoughtful individual. He had, what I though, was a very interesting comment on Biden's "impromptu" remarks in Poland:

Don't imagine for a second that wasn't planned. The exact wording was worked out and approved. It was an impromptu utterance that couldn't be in the official speech but could express the real desire of the United States while allowing the Secretary of State to walk it back.

My best clue for this? Along with knowing that plenty of "offhand remarks" by world leaders were preplanned, the President has a stutter. When he speaks off the cuff, you can notice a slower rhythm to his speech as he works around the impediment. His speech in Poland had no such slowing in the allegedly ad-ilibed part.

Joe Biden expressed US policy loud and clear, and you better believe Russia heard it.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I have an acquaintence who, in another life, was a US Army sniper and a very thoughtful individual. He had, what I though, was a very interesting comment on Biden's "impromptu" remarks in Poland:

Whether Biden's statement was impromptu or planned, I certainly agree with it. Putin has to go.

That is, of course, up to the Russian people themselves. But it would be a benefit to everyone.

 

[nuuumannn]

The Max were unnecessary and tragic, however, Boeing has learned and is making the changes it needs to make. The company will become stronger and will recover from it. My heart still goes out to those affected and the victims.

Indeed so, but it was a terrible miscalculation by the company and a clear example of corporate corruption if ever there was one. It is interesting to note that before Airbus announced the A320 NEO, Boeing's investigation into a 737 replacement was aiming at an entirely new airframe/engine combo. The CEO even went on record stating that the company wasn't going to base their next gen single-aisle airliner on the 737.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Indeed so, but it was a terrible miscalculation by the company and a clear example of corporate corruption if ever there was one. It is interesting to note that before Airbus announced the A320 NEO, Boeing's investigation into a 737 replacement was aiming at an entirely new airframe/engine combo. The CEO even went on record stating that the company wasn't going to base their next gen single-aisle airliner on the 737.

Agreed