But what does "
Ukraine's victory" look like to the EU? If it's a return to the pre-2014 or even pre-2022 borders with Russia I think that is highly unlikely for 2025. My prediction is that Russia will agree to leave the Kherson oblast minus the land corridor between Crimea and Zaporizhia, and will keep all of Luhansk, Donetsk (including Mariupol), Crimea and most of Zaporizhia. In return Ukraine will be fast tracked to join the EU, but forget about NATO expansion until after 2029 when US leadership changes again. Before this, Zelenskyy will be tossed by a humiliated Ukrainian people.
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With the end of US military and financial aid in 2025, Ukraine just doesn't have the ability to retake any territory. That's why the US was pushing Ukraine in 2023 to use all its new kit in a major thrust rather than spread out in penny packets to hold the entire line. Maybe that was never going to work, but that was the last chance to retake land.