"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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But what does "Ukraine's victory" look like to the EU? If it's a return to the pre-2014 or even pre-2022 borders with Russia I think that is highly unlikely for 2025. My prediction is that Russia will agree to leave the Kherson oblast minus the land corridor between Crimea and Zaporizhia, and will keep all of Luhansk, Donetsk (including Mariupol), Crimea and most of Zaporizhia. In return Ukraine will be fast tracked to join the EU, but forget about NATO expansion until after 2029 when US leadership changes again. Before this, Zelenskyy will be tossed by a humiliated Ukrainian people.

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With the end of US military and financial aid in 2025, Ukraine just doesn't have the ability to retake any territory. That's why the US was pushing Ukraine in 2023 to use all its new kit in a major thrust rather than spread out in penny packets to hold the entire line. Maybe that was never going to work, but that was the last chance to retake land.


I don't see Putin giving up on his totalist ambitions. Even if there's the sort of pause you describe, so long as Putin is alive -- and perhaps beyond, depending on the perspicacity of his replacement -- Ukraine will be at war, in one mode or another.
 
I don't see Putin giving up on his totalist ambitions. Even if there's the sort of pause you describe, so long as Putin is alive -- and perhaps beyond, depending on the perspicacity of his replacement -- Ukraine will be at war, in one mode or another.
Agreed. Zelensky may agree to a ceasefire, but Ukraine will never cede Crimea or any territory to Russia. Though this position may block Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO, as an ongoing territorial dispute is a unpredictable powder keg that the membership may see as too risky.
Peace in our time
If the Americans are out, and now the Germans are out, Ukraine is going to have to settle.
 
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Effective Saturday Russia will stop natural gas deliveries to Austria after Austria won a 230 million dollar arbitation award.
Austria basically says: "Nah, were good. We have other sources via LNG obtained through germany." Plus if Russia stops deliveries all previously agreed upon delivery contracts are void so Austria does not have to pay damages to Russia for possible breach of contract.
So more gas available for Putins puppies in Hungary/Slovakia.
 
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Or go down fighting.
No chance. More Ukrainians have fled the country than are fighting for it. Everyone who wanted to fight the Russians is already fighting, and ordering them to now take suicidal action does nothing for the future of Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to think of the longterm viability of the Ukrainian people - they'll live without the Azov Coastal oblasts. Poland is still a strong nation even after losing a lot of territory. Same goes for Germany, which is only 2/3 its original size.
 
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Or go down fighting.

That said, I fear Putin will be working overtime to influence the German elections...and his useful idiots will assist him.

If the Russians think the peace will be peaceful, I suspect they have another nasty surprise in store.
 

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