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But what does "Ukraine's victory" look like to the EU? If it's a return to the pre-2014 or even pre-2022 borders with Russia I think that is highly unlikely for 2025. My prediction is that Russia will agree to leave the Kherson oblast minus the land corridor between Crimea and Zaporizhia, and will keep all of Luhansk, Donetsk (including Mariupol), Crimea and most of Zaporizhia. In return Ukraine will be fast tracked to join the EU, but forget about NATO expansion until after 2029 when US leadership changes again. Before this, Zelenskyy will be tossed by a humiliated Ukrainian people.
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With the end of US military and financial aid in 2025, Ukraine just doesn't have the ability to retake any territory. That's why the US was pushing Ukraine in 2023 to use all its new kit in a major thrust rather than spread out in penny packets to hold the entire line. Maybe that was never going to work, but that was the last chance to retake land.
2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
www.abc.net.au
Peace in our time
Ukraine describes call between German chancellor and Putin as 'appeasement'
A source in Ukraine's presidential office says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz against taking part in the call, warning it would prolong the war and reduce Mr Putin's isolation.
Agreed. Zelensky may agree to a ceasefire, but Ukraine will never cede Crimea or any territory to Russia. Though this position may block Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO, as an ongoing territorial dispute is a unpredictable powder keg that the membership may see as too risky.
If the Americans are out, and now the Germans are out, Ukraine is going to have to settle.
Or go down fighting.
No chance. More Ukrainians have fled the country than are fighting for it. Everyone who wanted to fight the Russians is already fighting, and ordering them to now take suicidal action does nothing for the future of Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to think of the longterm viability of the Ukrainian people - they'll live without the Azov Coastal oblasts. Poland is still a strong nation even after losing a lot of territory. Same goes for Germany, which is only 2/3 its original size.
www.twz.com
www.forbes.com
And exactly what light tanks might those be?
Who said anything about ordering them? I am saying that they might keep fighting regardless.
He is thinking about the long term future.
And are separate countries
But Sth Korea is still to do anything
If the US pulls aid from Ukraine completely and also pulls out of NATO, both of which are on the cards, then you will see not only Ukraine struggle and probably eventually fall but European countries will have to prioritise their own defences. I am not happy with the prospect of this but am also a realist.
