"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

GrauGeist said:

In the Kremlin, Vladolf Putler would be raging and hyperventilating

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...and buckling on his body armor! And walking around in a huddle of his Praetorian Guard.

Some of my friends who have studied Russian say that Russians tend to have an ingrained fear of being considered nekulturny (uncultured) thugs by foreigners, while at the same time taking a perverse pride in their capacity for ruthlessness. Thus they are all schizophrenic to a greater or lesser extent, it would seem. Does this make any sense to you folks out there more knowledgeable than I? Just a thought.

Some of the declassified bits from a recent DoD intel briefing, released at a press briefing:

The Russian units that were attacking Kyiv have withdrawn and are refitting in Belarus and western Russia. The units are making their way to Russian towns of Belgorod and Valuyki, which are near the border with Ukraine and the northern part of the Donbas region.

Some of the units that attacked Kyiv were severely mauled, with many battalion tactical groups [BTG] experiencing a combined personnel and equipment reduction of 30% and others hurt even more.

"We've seen indications of some units that are literally ... eradicated — there's just nothing left of the BTG [Battalion Tactical Group] except a handful of troops and maybe a small number of vehicles."

It may take some time for these units to be reconstituted, and this could be further complicated by continuing failures in logistics.

". . . we're seeing antidotal evidence that some of these battalion tactical groups are doing what they can to try to replace manpower on their own. And they're exploring the option of combining BTGs with one another and they hope to get refit / reinforced by new conscripts . . ."

"We believe that they have not solved all of their logistics and sustainment problems and that those problems did not just exist inside Ukraine. They existed outside Ukraine and still do exist. And so, our sense is that they will likely not be able to reinforce the eastern part of the country with any great speed."

After the failure of the Kyiv campaign, the Russians are moving units to the east and beginning to feed them into the fight for the Donbas. It is becoming the main scene of battle in the country after Russian President Vladimir Putin's failed attempt to take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

"I don't have an update for you on where the troops coming out of Georgia went. Again, I mentioned at the time we're not going to have perfect visibility on all their movements but we have said before that they're going to reinforce the east, and they have. They're up over 40 BTGs [from 30 pre-invasion of Ukraine] in that northeastern grouping of troops that are or will be soon applied to the east."

". . . one unit in particular that we know, the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, they're being transferred to the eastern borders of Ukraine. It's a new division that was formed only in 2021, consists of three mechanized infantry regiments as well as an armored regiment. And our assessment is that they're expected to be applied in eastern Ukraine in the Kramatorsk area, in the area near where that train station was. So, we're seeing the movement of units and the application of force, more force in that part."

"The Russians and the Ukrainians have been focused on the Donbas for eight years, and for eight years [] the Ukrainians have been able to stymie Russia's larger objectives in the Donbas. But the fighting has been bloody, it's been stiff. And it's been pretty consistent for years."

"This will be a knife fight . . . this could be very bloody and very ugly."

XBe02Drvr said:

Some of my friends who have studied Russian say that Russians tend to have an ingrained fear of being considered nekulturny (uncultured) thugs by foreigners,

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That is what Robert Heinlein said after visiting the USSR in 1960. If you were not getting treated right then as a last resort stand on tippy toes and fiercely say "Nekulturny!" You'd either get satisfaction or be introduced to a jail cell.

A USAF Colonel who had dealt with the Soviets a lot in arms control negotiations told me he considered Christianity to be reflected in how nice and decent people dealt with one another, and the Soviets were not.

During the Cold War they showed themselves to be a very petty people, often taking actions that made as much sense as some teenagers knocking over mailboxes just for the hell of it - and saying it was justified because they did not like math class, or something. A Soviet agent who came from Eastern Europe and was sent to the US, only to eventually defect, said his evaluation of them was every simple: They desperately wanted to be the United States but weren't.

By the way, as I expected, they are saying that the missile that hit the train station has a serial number that came from the lot of 500 SS-21 missiles that the UKR has. I don't guess we have any way of verifying that one way or another.

On Youtube they played a couple of Russian military units talking to each other, their situation was desperate and they were asking each other for help. Then someone tried to jam them, breaking in and whistling a familiar tune, "I wish I was in the land of Dixie..." Does the UKR have a lot of Dukes of Hazard fans?

The west disarmed, when before Nimrod was broken up the British sent Haig to Russia to get their assurance they would not expand the Submarine force. They said yes and the Nimrod fleet was broken up to the cheers of the submariners at Murmansk. Then they disarmed. You can get the British Army into a football stadium and have room to spare. The RAF has 18 operational fighters protecting British airspace and the Navy has less than 15 operational ships. Immigrants cross the cannel with impunity - YES its NATOs fault.

MIflyer said:

By the way, as I expected, they are saying that the missile that hit the train station has a serial number that came from the lot of 500 SS-21 missiles that the UKR has. I don't guess we have any way of verifying that one way or another.

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If that missile was of Ukrainian origin, there's a good chance it was captured by Russian forces earlier in the campaign, when large areas were initially lost.

Hey c1951,

What are you talking about?

The UK has ~100 operational Typhoon aircraft in 7 active squadrons. Do you mean that the UK has only 18 aircraft on standing guard (aka Quick Reaction Alert)?

Also, RAF is flying Poseidon MRA Mk 1 aircraft for maritime patrol and ASW - although they only have 9 airframes.

GrauGeist said:

If that missile was of Ukrainian origin, there's a good chance it was captured by Russian forces earlier in the campaign, when large areas were initially lost.

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Supposedly the Russians have phased out that missile and replaced it with another. But as we have already seen, they are using equipment as old as WW1. They may not maintain everything very well but they also don't tend to throw it away. At this point I would not be surprised to see some T-34's come trundling up - from either side. They are still finding them in lakes.

Early one. I think that's a T-34 1941 with the original small turret and 76.2mm gun. Interesting balkankruze on it.

c1951 said:

The west disarmed, when before Nimrod was broken up the British sent Haig to Russia to get their assurance they would not expand the Submarine force. They said yes and the Nimrod fleet was broken up to the cheers of the submariners at Murmansk. Then they disarmed. You can get the British Army into a football stadium and have room to spare. The RAF has 18 operational fighters protecting British airspace and the Navy has less than 15 operational ships. Immigrants cross the cannel with impunity - YES its NATOs fault.

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The Germans made extensive use of captured T-34's and KV-1's in WW2; they had whole units equipped with only those. The early T-34's had serious problems with the transmission and many were abandoned; they even strapped spare transmissions to the rear deck because so many were failing. Note that one has a German style hatch rather than that absurd open from the rear hatch the early T-34's had.

wlewisiii said:

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That second one will be repaired and in Ukraine service soon. Isn't the T-80 produced in Ukraine?

Definitely a german-rebuilt T-34, see commanders cuppola on turret roof

*comrade humpty

For the next phase of the war in Ukraine the Russians have put their top men on it. T O P M E N!

Head'em up! Move'em Out!

Interesting read on the T-80BVM


They are kept in reserve due to their operational costs, their gas turbine engine can "consume up to 750 liters of fuel for 100 km driven".

vikingBerserker said:

Interesting read on the T-80BVM

T-80BVM Main Battle Tank | Military-Today.com

The T-80BVM is a refurbished and upgraded version of the T-80BV main battle tank. It was first publicly revealed in 2017. Russian Army plans to upgrade its T-80 series tanks in order to keep them in operational service.

www.military-today.com

They are kept in reserve due to their operational costs, their gas turbine engine can "consume up to 750 liters of fuel for 100 km driven".

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mean fuel consumption in for M1 is 148l/10km - data revealed by Sweden after competitive trials with Leo2, i don't think T-80 is any better in this term. Mass using turbine powered tanks will kill their logistic faster than Ukrainians will be able to do this