"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[BiffF15]

and the car tyres/tires with arrows that remain inflated.

The US refusal early on to give Poland new aircraft in exchange for MiGs to Ukraine has bugged me from day one.

Now I suspect that the US may have been worried that Russia would steamroll Ukraine, as was predicted, and, if the MiG deal went through, go straight on into Poland while Poland had no fighter aircraft for defense. Conversion training from the MiG to an American type would take months at best but the trainees could still return home and fly MiG's if the Russians attacked.

Hopefully there are now lots of Poles in the US quietly getting training and some of the MiG's have been "hijacked" to Ukraine. Maybe it is time for some Polish, and other, tank crews to "steal" some tanks and join the Ukrainian army in the east.

My guess is that the MiGs to Ukraine is a three part problem.

First, the Polish MiGs could easily end up war casualties in short order. Basically wasted.

Second, who pays for the Polish MiGs? They may have a few upgrades, but are a VERY INEXPENSIVE aircraft. Trade one for one for F-16s, again who pays for them.

Lastly, if they did get handed over to the UAF, the country which allowed them to launch (to land in Ukraine) could easily be considered an Ally and end up being drawn into the conflict.

Personally, I would like to see them get more arms, but not sure if diplomatically or via military maneuver handing them over is the right answer.

The after action report should include questions such as: How could this conflict have been avoided?

And having a US president say it's okay to "invade a little" is not a good answer.

 

[Zipper730]

Bottom line is that the nukes in Ukraine belonged to the USSR and hence the launch codes etc were managed from Moscow.

So, they couldn't rework the permissive action links to make the weapon work? Given that some of the missile crews that worked there included ukrainians, as well as some of the missile maintenance guys, that seems like that wouldn't be all that hard to deal with.

neither NATO nor Russia wanted another nuclear force on either of their doorsteps, particularly given how uncertain things were in the early 1990s.

So there was a concern by NATO that Ukraine would either align with Russia or go its own way and present a wild-card?

While some of the nuclear weapons in the inventory were past their expiration date, it seems foolish to have disposed of them completely regardless: Sadly some people only respond to threats of violence, or actual displays of it.

 

[gumbyk]

Second, who pays for the Polish MiGs? They may have a few upgrades, but are a VERY INEXPENSIVE aircraft. Trade one for one for F-16s, again who pays for them.

My understanding is that Poland were to donate them to Ukraine, as they have basically reached the end of their lives and would have only been scrapped anyway.

Lastly, if they did get handed over to the UAF, the country which allowed them to launch (to land in Ukraine) could easily be considered an Ally and end up being drawn into the conflict.

It's no different than Tanks crossing the border. The only issue could have arisen if they found a target of opportunity during the transit from Poland to Ukraine. That's technically a mission launched from within a NATO country.

 

[Jabberwocky]

The Ukrainians reputedly have a couple of thousand tanks, mostly old T-72s and a smattering of T-64s which are even older. I haven't read too much about their use or possible successes. Perhaps they're being husbanded?

They're being deployed, often only singly or in pairs, teamed with small combat forces including a few IFV/APCs and dismounted infantry.

Ukranian tank losses to date (from Western and third party sources) are somewhere between 100 and 150 vehicles. Russian claims are for more than 400 tanks and about 1500 other armoured vehicles. Assume losses are somewhere about halfway between those two figures.

Most Ukranian tanks seem to have been lost in the first two to three weeks of the conflict. Primary type lost has been T-64B and variants, as well as a few T-72s and some T-84s. That makes sense - pre-war T-64BV/BM made up about 75% of the country's active tank force of about 950-1100 tanks.

Typical defensive employments with tanks seems to be either short range ambush engagements from cover/concealment, or deployment as mobile pillboxes in support of urban fighting. In the former situation, the tank or tanks seem to usually be used to initiate fire on a Russian column, drawing their attention or pulling them towards a kill box. Then the lighter units and infantry support follow up with ATGMs/shoulder launched rockets. Then the tanks pop/generate smoke and support disengagement.

Offensive use seems to be relatively limited - so far I've really only seen video of Ukrainian tanks being used in over-watch for infantry as they clear villages in counter attacks, or to reduce defensive/sniper positions.

The main problem with wider tank deployment for Ukraine seems to be Russia air superiority - particularly in the form of attack helicopters.

 

[GrauGeist]

The first mention of MiGs for Ukraine was issued by a person in the EU (don't recall who) and they didn't specify from which country.
They caught heat for making the statement and retracted it.
Then shortly after, a news story mentioned that MiGs were available from several countries (Bulgaria was one mentioned - and they have very few and very much need them).
Eventually the stories ended up being about Poland's MiGs.

*if* Poland were to donate their MiGs, all that would need to be done, is push them across the border and use the Highway to take off, as many European nations practice doing (including Ukraine).

Passing tanks across the border is easy, too. Just park them along the Highway and let the 3rd Farm Tractor Brigade work their magic.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

They're being deployed, often only singly or in pairs, teamed with small combat forces including a few IFV/APCs and dismounted infantry.

Ukranian tank losses to date (from Western and third party sources) are somewhere between 100 and 150 vehicles. Russian claims are for more than 400 tanks and about 1500 other armoured vehicles. Assume losses are somewhere about halfway between those two figures.

Most Ukranian tanks seem to have been lost in the first two to three weeks of the conflict. Primary type lost has been T-64B and variants, as well as a few T-72s and some T-84s. That makes sense - pre-war T-64BV/BM made up about 75% of the country's active tank force of about 950-1100 tanks.

Typical defensive employments with tanks seems to be either short range ambush engagements from cover/concealment, or deployment as mobile pillboxes in support of urban fighting. In the former situation, the tank or tanks seem to usually be used to initiate fire on a Russian column, drawing their attention or pulling them towards a kill box. Then the lighter units and infantry support follow up with ATGMs/shoulder launched rockets. Then the tanks pop/generate smoke and support disengagement.

Offensive use seems to be relatively limited - so far I've really only seen video of Ukrainian tanks being used in over-watch for infantry as they clear villages in counter attacks, or to reduce defensive/sniper positions.

The main problem with wider tank deployment for Ukraine seems to be Russia air superiority - particularly in the form of attack helicopters.

Thanks for the info, that clears some of the clouds up for me. Much appreciated.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

and the car tyres/tires with arrows that remain inflated.

The US refusal early on to give Poland new aircraft in exchange for MiGs to Ukraine has bugged me from day one.

Now I suspect that the US may have been worried that Russia would steamroll Ukraine, as was predicted, and, if the MiG deal went through, go straight on into Poland while Poland had no fighter aircraft for defense. Conversion training from the MiG to an American type would take months at best but the trainees could still return home and fly MiG's if the Russians attacked.

Hopefully there are now lots of Poles in the US quietly getting training and some of the MiG's have been "hijacked" to Ukraine. Maybe it is time for some Polish, and other, tank crews to "steal" some tanks and join the Ukrainian army in the east.

I'd like to see some Ukrainian pilots pulled back to Germany and trained on surplus A-10s. I know the learning curve is long, but I also know that this war might last months.

 

[Jabberwocky]

I imagine China's thinking as they look wistfully at Taiwan, well f#ck Russia, did you have to kick the global beehive and bring the West out of its military and activist complacency?

Western military budgets have been generally trending upwards for the better part of the last decade - even as they've reduced the actual amount of actual fighting being done.

US defense spending turned positive in 2018, and reached 3.7% of GDP in 2021 (I think the 2022 budget request is for another increase as well). Non-US NATO state spending has been growing since 2014, increasing from $250 billion to $311 billion in 2021 (an increase of just under 25%). It's generally not as great a proportion of GDP as the US, but few Western states are.

NATO for 2021 was expected to spend ~$1028 billion (in 2015 dollars) on defense. That's up from $896 in 2015.

Outside of NATO other Western states have generally had growing defense spending. Australian defense spending bottomed out in 2013 and has grown by just over 25% since then. Japan has been flat but has increased over the last three years - and there's been a huge debate about whether Japan should be taking a more active role globally. South Korea defense spending has also been growing for the last three or four years.

 

[BiffF15]

flying a german MiG-29 ?
Or was it so new in US service they forgot to remove german tactical numbers?
According to a site this a/c should be #4109 in Poland now

Dennis,

Sorry just now realized I jumped over your post. I first fought the MiGs while deployed to Iceland. We took three jets cross country from Iceland to Denmark, spent the night, then fought them the next day landing at Laaga AB, GE. We fought them again on the way out and I think we landed at Lakenheath. Timeframe should have been summer of 2000 / 2001.

Cheers,
Biff

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Passing tanks across the border is easy, too. Just park them along the Highway and let the 3rd Farm Tractor Brigade work their magic.

I think it's actually easier than that, because there's no way they could be said to be on a combat mission at the time they crossed the Polish-Ukrainian frontier, given range limitations. Airplanes taking off from NATO bases wouldn't have the same fig-leaf.

Of course any supply of arms or ammo from neutral parties to a belligerent is by international understanding an act of war and susceptible to interdiction -- hence the undeclared war between Germany and America in autumn 1941 in the Atlantic.

I'm fine with NATO going that far concerning ground weapons, fuel, and munitions supplies. I'm iffy on the airplanes but I'd see if they couldn't be loaded onto trucks with the keys left in the ignition etc. The Ukrainians are fighting dogs and doing the hardest work -- we in the West owe them anything we can do that won't provoke an exchange of nukes, imo.

 

[wlewisiii]

As someone with leftist leanings who still willingly served in the defense of the west, this pleases me.

 

[BiffF15]

I'm on the road, but will check when I get home!

More shots of our adventure of fighting the MiGs down at Key West, FL

First shot is from my room at the Fly Navy building of a waterspout.
Second shot is a selfie at FL460 over the Keys.
Third shot is of a MiG on my wing.
Various shots airborne and on the ramp.

 

[GrauGeist]

Biff, that first pic - is that a RAF Tornado?

Ok, seriously though, sweet pix, thanks for sharing!

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Biff, I gave you bacon - wish I could multiply it by 10! Great shots!!!! Thanks for posting!!!

 

[BiffF15]

More shots of our adventure of fighting the MiGs down at Key West, FL

First shot is from my room at the Fly Navy building of a waterspout.
Second shot is a selfie at FL460 over the Keys.
Third shot is of a MiG on my wing.
Various shots airborne and on the ramp.

First shot is the instrument panel enroute to NAS Key West. Radar scope in upper left (turned off), Radar Warning Receiver (RWR) top right, Multi Purpose Color Display (MPCD) below the radar.
Second, another airborne shot.
Third, sunset while drinking with all the Bro's coming back from snorkeling.
Fourth, RTB after a great ACM ride.
Fifth, NAS Key West from directly above.
More random shots.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Biff, thank you so much for sharing these.

 

[BiffF15]

Biff, I gave you bacon - wish I could multiply it by 10! Great shots!!!! Thanks for posting!!!

No sweat. It was one of the best TDYs I ever had.

The Weapons Officer was sitting at his desk one day going over our home airfield airspace and came to the conclusion we couldn't fight the MiGs there. I was standing there when he looked at me, and my only comment was we should meet them in Key West since the airspace is literally ten miles away. Next thing you know, we are going to Key West.'

MiGs and Top Gun Hornets.

Fighting by day, going to Sloppy Joes every night.

Hint, when you fly into the pattern at NAS Key West, look for cruise ships. The more ships, the better the night will be down on the strip.

And you can crawl from the strip back to the billeting (the Fly Navy building).

It was an obscene amount of fun.

And I got paid to do it. UFB. I would have done it for free.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Fighting by day, going to Sloppy Joes every night.

Heaven...

 

[wlewisiii]

This is an exquisite article by a former commander of US Army Europe. Enjoy!

I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.

It was an event I witnessed secondhand—a visit by our U.S. Army Europe band to Moscow. I had been back in the United States when, according to the band's director, "America's Musical Ambassadors in Europe" had "rocked Red Square in six performances." Russia had invited military bands from a half-dozen countries to perform modern music from their respective countries, and soldiers' from our European Army band had knocked-em-dead with a Michael Jackson medley outside the Kremlin.

A very young sergeant, a trumpet player, confirmed to me that the Red Square concert had been a smashing success. When I pressed her for more details, she offered that the Russian musicians "were good, but they really weren't very impressive. They weren't really soldiers; they were musicians dressed like soldiers. And their leadership. . . well, we wouldn't allow leaders like them in our Army. I wasn't impressed." I asked which countries had impressed her. "Germany was really good, and France performed some great music. But the Ukrainians—those soldiers really got it going on!"

What can you learn about a military from its band? Usually, not much. But putting on great performance requires some of the same skills as conducting a military operation. It requires recruiting the right people with the right talents (and many militaries, including the American military, use bands as a recruiting tool). It requires equipping those people with the right technology—often highly specialized—so they can do their job. It requires training those people to work together to perform complicated tasks with impeccable timing. It requires developing young leaders, managing logistics, and maintaining high morale. The sergeant I spoke to observed that what came through in the Ukrainians' performance is that they wanted to be there, they wanted to be great, and their leaders were inspirational.

 

[wlewisiii]

Heaven...

I don't know the literal "sloppy joes" but I've been enough places in Uncle's army to know the places like it (hell the one outside the gates at my first post that we called the "Stab & Jab" ) so I can sit here and raise a shot glass in honor of that place. Thank you for the service, the photos & most importantly, the stories...