"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

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Mr. Ryabkov:
"The whole purpose of what is being done by us there is to ensure that at least some of those people, majority of those people, find it better and find it, I would say, more appropriate to be where they belong, which is Russia."

Russia and Ukraine 'on the verge' of deal to end war, deputy foreign minister says

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told ABC News during an exclusive interview in Moscow on Monday that he believes the warring parties are close to a deal.
abcnews.go.com

By the way, this is the same Mr Ryabkov who said on 10 Jan 2022:
"We explained to our colleagues that we have no plans to 'attack' Ukraine,"

US and Russia hold tense talks on Ukraine crisis – DW – 01/10/2022

The deputy US secretary of state said Washington pushed back on Moscow's security proposals. Her Russian counterpart said there was no basis for Western powers to fear an "escalation" with Ukraine.
www.dw.com
 
swampyankee said:
I wonder where putin's next invasion will be? In the West, I'm thinking Estonia. He can be pretty sure the US won't do anything, considering he got far more than he would have from just about any other US administration
Click to expand...
In 2022, they did what was considered unreasonable by some military experts: they launched simultaneous attacks from multiple directions. They can do the same, against several targets (countries, cities, NATO installations, infrastructure) using "hybrid warfare".
They certainly can attempt a conventional invasion, and hopefully, NATO is able to detect the preparations.
Estonia has about 25,000 persons in active service, including paramilitary, defending 340 km of the border. The aggressor needs to mass a substantial force somewhere nearby.
 
swampyankee said:
I wonder where putin's next invasion will be? In the West, I'm thinking Estonia. He can be pretty sure the US won't do anything, considering he got far more than he would have from just about any other US administration
Click to expand...
Any of the Baltics has long been seen as the possible next target - in fact General Sir Richard Shirreff (former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe) wrote on exactly this scenario following a Russian invasion of Ukraine back in 2016:



Another potential is Kazakhstan and this has just been covered in this:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANW_qQFXAyk
 
Adding to the conversation about the submarine attack above, from GTX 's linked TWZ article:

Satellite imagery is now available showing the aftermath of a Ukrainian attack yesterday on a Russian Navy Improved Kilo class diesel-electric submarine in the Black Sea naval stronghold of Novorossiysk. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed that this was the first attack against a Russian vessel using an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV). The operation could also mark the historic first successful use of a UUV as an anti-ship weapon, but the actual level of damage inflicted on the submarine remains unclear. Readers can first get up to date on the attack in our initial reporting here.

[...]

The satellite imagery confirms that the UUV — named by the SBU as a Sub Sea Baby, a previously unknown type — detonated off the stern of the submarine, which was at a pier in the port of Novorossiysk. A substantial chunk of the pier itself was destroyed in the attack. This all aligns with video footage shot during the attack from a position on the ground nearby, which the SBU released yesterday.

Before:



After:



Aftermath Of Ukraine’s Underwater Drone Attack On Russian Submarine Seen In Satellite Imagery

Ukraine's submersible drone navigated into a protected harbor and detonated very close to the targeted submarine.
www.twz.com

Any explosion that destroyed part of a concrete pier almost certainly did significant and probably fatal damage, or as T ThomasP notes above, whipsawed and/or bent the propellor-shaft. Even though the boat is itself not sunk, per the photos, I wouldn't doubt that it is a write-off due to uneconomic repair costs and/or a lack of suitable infrastructure to do the repair in wartime circumstances.
 
I saw the video of the submarine attack on Funker.
The video, which was from a Ukrainian hacked security camera (bravo Ukraine!) showed a tremendous blast which would indicate a serious water hammer effect on the sub.
The proximity to the pier as well as being in shallow water would certainly amplify the compression of the shockwave.

I'm willing to bet that sub suffered serious damage as a result.
 
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