Thumpalumpacus
Major
... or they climb up on the cross in attempt to explain their prickishness ... choose your explanation.
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)
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... or they climb up on the cross in attempt to explain their prickishness ... choose your explanation.
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Some of you probably saw this if you checked out one of the member's post/link up-thread, but for those of you who did not . . .
We can only hope.
We can only hope.
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buffnut453
Captain
I like the Moldova/Transnistria idea, and I'd also like to see Georgia going on the offensive. Hitting back while Moscow is distracted and can't adequately respond is a great way to keep Putin in his place, seize some of the initiative, and hopefully help deter him from similar actions in the future (although I accept the latter is naiively optimistic).
K-grad is off the table, IMHO. It will involve NATO members acting which will give Putin the opportunity to claim NATO is attacking. Definitely not what we want to be doing right now.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
The Potemkin military.
Escuadrilla Azul
Tech Sergeant
- 1,805
- Feb 27, 2020
About the new ukrainian jet fighters. Everybody says that they are from ukrainian stocks refurbished with parts that came with US aid.
True or ruse to disguise that they came from NATO countries?
www.thedrive.com
True or ruse to disguise that they came from NATO countries?
No, Additional Fighter Jets Haven't Been Delivered To Ukraine
The Pentagon says Ukraine has more aircraft flying now than it did two weeks ago, but it's not because they got new jets.
www.thedrive.com
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
I'm sure the west will be obscufating some information regarding supplies to the Ukraine.
Personally, this is why I would never be a good politician, because I would get on the phone to Putin an tell him directly:
"Hey, I'm sending jets, tanks, artillery and a f**k ton of Stingers to bust your ass.
Don't like that? Then let's meet up and you can pull off your shirt and come at me, bro..."
Personally, this is why I would never be a good politician, because I would get on the phone to Putin an tell him directly:
"Hey, I'm sending jets, tanks, artillery and a f**k ton of Stingers to bust your ass.
Don't like that? Then let's meet up and you can pull off your shirt and come at me, bro..."
No, you would not be a good politician, but you would be a good statesman.
at6
1st Sergeant
Some how I'm beginning to think that Putin spent too much time playing with himself as a kid. They used to tell us we'd go blind or insane if we did it. He didn't go blind but he is insane.
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MiTasol
1st Lieutenant
And I suspect that if you did a dollars per head of population calculation Canada would be much closer to the top than some other countries that are physically much closer to the conflict. That said some of those need to maintain enough to repel boarders in the near future but some relatively far from the conflict but are not pulling their weight if the press are correct
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Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
I know everyone's having fun mocking Putin and the Russian performance in this war, but let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment (I went to a Jesuit school, it's what we do).
Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.
Russia has lots of things going for it. They've got air supremacy (although not full dominance), artillery supremacy and significant advantages over the Ukrainians in terms of heavy ground forces - both in terms of numbers, quality and overall mobility. Russia can bring substantially more firepower to any one point at any one time than their opponents can, and in war that matters
They've also got advantages in terms of strategic mobility. Russia basically has control of when and where it attacks. If the Russian Army does encounter strong opposition, it can re-position/reset its axes of advance, or concentrate forces on completely a different axis.
Most of Ukraine's manpower is relatively static/foot mobile and comprised of lightly armed reservists. These troops work well when defending fixed positions against other light forces and 'Thunder Run' style rapid attacks. I question their ability to survive and contribute meaningfully on a battlefield being prepared by artillery and against an opponent using proper combined arms tactics with heavy forces.
Russia and it's leaders - both political and military - aren't dumb (no matter how we might like to deride them). It's armed forces got a rude shock in the initial phase, because their perception of reality and the actual situation on the ground were very different.
I suspect though that they have now had time to adjust and figure some things out. Like logistics. And communications. And SEAD.
Worst case for me is the Russia's second phase operation fixes some of Ukraine's heavy regular army units in place the East of the country, and then manages to destroy them with overwhelming firepower. Then they use these openings in the front to break into open territory where they're opposed by light/reserve/less mobile forces. There's little to stop them completing a major encirclement, with forces linking up from the north and south.
Surviving Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw westward or are trapped in a pocket. Either way, very heavy losses ensue - including most of Ukraine's heavy equipment and regular army troops. Ukrainian general staff is forced to give up on a wide front in eastern Ukraine, pulling back to the northwest to defend a shorter line (maybe Dnipro-Kharkiv, or Kremenchuk-Poltava-Kharkiv if things really go bad).
Russia ends up controlling everything on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River up to Dnipro City itself and then a large chunk of the country immediately north of that all the way up to the Russian border. It then halts its advance at whatever new defensive line the Ukrainians manage to establish, settles into a defensive posture, declares a 'mission accomplished' with a parade through Red Square and calls for a general cease fire.
Ukrainians become disenchanted with their government after losing the war, blame Zelensky for getting them into something they could never win and vote him out a few years later. In his place is a Russian-friendly candidate who promises to restore good relations with Russia in exchange for some territorial adjustments. He signs a peace treaty, ceding control of certain territories to Russia on the promise of 'free and fair' referendums on whether they want to be part of Russia or not.
End result, Russia acquires ~20-25% of Ukranian territory, controls 80% of its access to the Black Sea and ends up with four or five cities with populations of more than 250,000.
Here endeth the fantasy. Which - in my own not so modest opinion - is not actually that fantastical.
(Of course, I'm ignoring the wider economic and geostrategic issues here. Just assume that Russia's economy is f*cked but it can still win the war using available reserves)
Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.
Russia has lots of things going for it. They've got air supremacy (although not full dominance), artillery supremacy and significant advantages over the Ukrainians in terms of heavy ground forces - both in terms of numbers, quality and overall mobility. Russia can bring substantially more firepower to any one point at any one time than their opponents can, and in war that matters
They've also got advantages in terms of strategic mobility. Russia basically has control of when and where it attacks. If the Russian Army does encounter strong opposition, it can re-position/reset its axes of advance, or concentrate forces on completely a different axis.
Most of Ukraine's manpower is relatively static/foot mobile and comprised of lightly armed reservists. These troops work well when defending fixed positions against other light forces and 'Thunder Run' style rapid attacks. I question their ability to survive and contribute meaningfully on a battlefield being prepared by artillery and against an opponent using proper combined arms tactics with heavy forces.
Russia and it's leaders - both political and military - aren't dumb (no matter how we might like to deride them). It's armed forces got a rude shock in the initial phase, because their perception of reality and the actual situation on the ground were very different.
I suspect though that they have now had time to adjust and figure some things out. Like logistics. And communications. And SEAD.
Worst case for me is the Russia's second phase operation fixes some of Ukraine's heavy regular army units in place the East of the country, and then manages to destroy them with overwhelming firepower. Then they use these openings in the front to break into open territory where they're opposed by light/reserve/less mobile forces. There's little to stop them completing a major encirclement, with forces linking up from the north and south.
Surviving Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw westward or are trapped in a pocket. Either way, very heavy losses ensue - including most of Ukraine's heavy equipment and regular army troops. Ukrainian general staff is forced to give up on a wide front in eastern Ukraine, pulling back to the northwest to defend a shorter line (maybe Dnipro-Kharkiv, or Kremenchuk-Poltava-Kharkiv if things really go bad).
Russia ends up controlling everything on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River up to Dnipro City itself and then a large chunk of the country immediately north of that all the way up to the Russian border. It then halts its advance at whatever new defensive line the Ukrainians manage to establish, settles into a defensive posture, declares a 'mission accomplished' with a parade through Red Square and calls for a general cease fire.
Ukrainians become disenchanted with their government after losing the war, blame Zelensky for getting them into something they could never win and vote him out a few years later. In his place is a Russian-friendly candidate who promises to restore good relations with Russia in exchange for some territorial adjustments. He signs a peace treaty, ceding control of certain territories to Russia on the promise of 'free and fair' referendums on whether they want to be part of Russia or not.
End result, Russia acquires ~20-25% of Ukranian territory, controls 80% of its access to the Black Sea and ends up with four or five cities with populations of more than 250,000.
Here endeth the fantasy. Which - in my own not so modest opinion - is not actually that fantastical.
(Of course, I'm ignoring the wider economic and geostrategic issues here. Just assume that Russia's economy is f*cked but it can still win the war using available reserves)
Thumpalumpacus
Major
A couple of things to remember:
1) While Russia may have strategic mobility, Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines, making shifting of forces to critical sectors much easier.
2) We don't know if Russia has air supremacy yet, because the Russians don't seem to want to use airpower much at all.
3) A good proportion of the Russian troops for the upcoming offensive are the same troops who got defeated in front of Kyiv, and the remnants thrown together into ad hoc units. Scratch troops do not good stormtroopers make.
4) Even if the Russians do destroy the mass of the Ukrainian army in the field, after the atrocities we've all seen the Russians are going to face an insurgency that will make Afghanistan look like a garden party.
Admiral Beez
Major
Ukraine needs to have an offensive of their own in the works, ideally to Mariupol, even after its fall so to cut off the land bridge. You don't win wars playing defence.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
... or, as I alluded to, they use the "unfairness" ploy in order to garner sympathy.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Or the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic......
Admiral Beez
Major
The Taliban ran an excellent offensive, waiting until the exhausted US and Allies fled the field and then marched into Kabul and overwhelmed the terrified defenders, who also fled. It's an offensive to mark the ages. 2021 Taliban offensive - Wikipedia The Ukrainians should be so lucky.
As for with what, I wrote that the Ukranians need to have an offensive in the works. They can launch it in May or June when much of the heaviest weaponry from the West is in place, but they'd better be preparing to retake lost territory. If Ukraine settles for a defensive strategy they'll lose a lot of territory in the peace.
Admiral Beez
Major
Neither of those won WW2, but they did play a crucial role in providing and protecting both the place and the means for the Allies to go on the offensive, land troops in Europe and win the war (with Russia's help). Ukraine's Battle of Britain was their successful defence of Kyiv, and their Battle of the Atlantic is their success (so far) in keeping the supply routes to Eastern Ukraine for the West's weapons open. But those defensive and logistical victories won't win back eastern Ukraine nor win the war. You must go on the offensive and use your experience and preparation gained while on the defence to now attack and destroy the enemy and retake lost territory. That's the difference between surviving a war and winning it.
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Ukraine has to time this right though with offensive action being targeted at weak points as they arise.
A general offensive would be playing into Russian hands.
As has been noted already the ongoing ability of Russian forces will depend on supply and replacement which
they having trouble with. Sanctions are the heaviest I've seen and this is already starting to bite.
This is going to be a matter of patience followed by throwing some good punches at the right times.
A general offensive would be playing into Russian hands.
As has been noted already the ongoing ability of Russian forces will depend on supply and replacement which
they having trouble with. Sanctions are the heaviest I've seen and this is already starting to bite.
This is going to be a matter of patience followed by throwing some good punches at the right times.
