"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

[Thumpalumpacus]

I can see the next Russian offensive bypassing the major cities in the east and advancing all the way to the Dnieper. The besieged cities will fight, of course but it will be a matter of time before ammo runs out and no western resupply, short of air-drops, will be possible.

That's if their logistics can support cross-country mobility. I've read articles reporting that the logistics issues extend behind the Russian frontier as well -- though that was a couple of weeks ago and who knows if the problem has been ironed out.

 

[wlewisiii]

Some interesting history and analysis. Ian has a very strong connection with the Finns and has studied their history in depth.

 

[buffnut453]

That's if their logistics can support cross-country mobility. I've read articles reporting that the logistics issues extend behind the Russian frontier as well -- though that was a couple of weeks ago and who knows if the problem has been ironed out.

Yeah…I'd be prioritizing trucks over BMPs or tanks, although there will be situations where armour has to be engaged. However, you don't need expensive missiles to take out trucks. Keep hammering the logistics and any attack will falter. Think Battle of the Bulge….but in Ukraine.

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Snautzer01]

My thoughts.
In mobile wars logitics is the key factor. Russia did not have that in order. And that was for a very short war. Now going into offensive in week 9 or 10 again i doubt if the have enough trucks to support a grinding offensive and keeping the rest off russia supplied to start with. Further more the supply collums are going to be monitored by guess who and one can imagine the weapons supplied like drones will disrupt the needed flow. The cold war bear is extinct done with no ussr bear. It still can bite but and that is a big relief no match for nato in a non nuclear war. There is nothing more commited then a soldier who is protecting his home and family from harm.

 

[SaparotRob]

Putler will scream loudly if Ukraine were to somehow strike the logistical nodes behind the Russian border. Has Russian territory become hands off after the helo strike? I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians have the precise coordinates of Russian convoys as well as the license plate numbers by now.

 

[Snautzer01]

Putler will scream loudly if Ukraine were to somehow strike the logistical nodes behind the Russian border. Has Russian territory become hands off after the helo strike? I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians have the precise coordinates of Russian convoys as well as the the license plate numbers by now.

Bet you they have the plate numbers. I do not think they will be attacking outside Ukrain though. Not much good publicity won and the enemy can move far more freely over a bigger piece of dirt making it harder to hit. I think they will wait for the supply coloms to be formed and on their way for a bit just like they did before. Russia did not like that a bit i think.

 

[Snautzer01]

An other thought. After 8 to 9 weeks fighting in a city, how much of the manpower still fighting fit?
Can these troops still be a power or are it just numbers untill rested reenforced and re armed?

 

[GrauGeist]

Russia claims to have 'liberated' Mariupol after weeks of bombardment

Russian officials claimed Thursday that the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine had come under their control. The besieged city has been reduced to rubble since the launch of the invasion on Feb. 24 as Russian forces attempted to capture the city for eight weeks.

www.yahoo.com

Didn't they claim just last week that they've taken control of Mariupol?

I also seem to recall that they claimed Ukraine forces in Mariupol surrendered about the same time.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

An other thought. After 8 to 9 weeks fighting in a city, how much of the manpower still fighting fit?
Can these troops still be a power or are it just numbers untill rested reenforced and re armed?

Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yeah…I'd be prioritizing trucks over BMPs or tanks, although there will be situations where armour has to be engaged. However, you don't need expensive missiles to take out trucks. Keep hammering the logistics and any attack will falter. Think Battle of the Bulge….but in Ukraine.

The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against [t]rucks.

 

[Snautzer01]

Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.

Yes i read as much. Now just guessing but the city being a prize not the worst troops should have been engaged. That means more or less fresh boys will be going out to fill and fight before the more or less battle proven are on line again. Should be fun for a fresh reserve to go on offensive with very tired companians.

 

[Snautzer01]

The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.

Stategy. Bleed um dry.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yes i read as much. Now just guessing but the city being a prize not the worst troops should have been engaged. That means more or less fresh boys will be going out to fill and fight before the more or less battle proven are on line again. Should be fun for a fresh reserve to go on offensive with very tired companians.

I could well be wrong, but I have to wonder how many of these "reinforcements" are from the fresh April draft of conscripts Russia has just impressed. No doubt they will be leavened with vets, but all the same, I think these troops will have lower experience and morale.

 

[SaparotRob]

Bet you they have the plate numbers. I do not think they will be attacking outside Ukrain though. Not much good publicity won and the enemy can move far more freely over a bigger piece of dirt making it harder to hit. I think they will wait for the supply coloms to be formed and on their way for a bit just like they did before. Russia did not like that a bit i think.

Perhaps I've fallen victim to NATO Exceptionalism but I was thinking that the Ukrainian forces would be able to strike a bit more precisely with little collateral damage. I have no idea how well Ukraine's counter punch has been improved.

 

[GrauGeist]

Perhaps I've fallen victim to NATO Exceptionalism but I was thinking that the Ukrainian forces would be able to strike a bit more precisely with little collateral damage. I have no idea how well Ukraine's counter punch has been improved.

So far, it appears Ukraine forces have been fairly good at avoiding civilian casualties.
For one thing, they are concentrating their weapons on Russian equipment/men and not firing indiscriminately into population centers.

This has a two-fold result:
Russian targets eliminated (of course) and conservation of available munitions.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.

A new word for me. Ask Stew: What Is a Ruck?

 

[Admiral Beez]

So far, it appears Ukraine forces have been fairly good at avoiding civilian casualties.

Well yes, the civilians are Ukrainians.

 

[vikingBerserker]

Thanks, I was wondering about Rucks as well