"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

[GrauGeist]

Well yes, the civilians are Ukrainians.

Unlike the Russian shelling of towns in the Donbas region which supposedly contains "ethnic Russians" which the Russians are there to protect...

 

[Admiral Beez]

Unlike the Russian shelling of towns in the Donbas region which supposedly contains "ethnic Russians" which the Russians are there to protect...

Good point. Russians never seem to grasp the hypocrisy of their leaders.

 

[Jabberwocky]

I could well be wrong, but I have to wonder how many of these "reinforcements" are from the fresh April draft of conscripts Russia has just impressed. No doubt they will be leavened with vets, but all the same, I think these troops will have lower experience and morale.

Likely virtually none.

The first intake of Russia's April conscripts won't have completed their version of basic training for at least another three to six weeks. Then they get 'advanced' training from the units they're assigned to - which could be anywhere from one to four months - with some others getting 'specalist' or 'systems' training at the few dedicated training centres. Russia has a rather ad hoc system based around individual military units rather than large centralised training facilities, and training times and standards vary significantly.

Only after this is when conscripts are considered combat ready. Typically the shortest training window for conscripts is about four months - under Russian legislation conscripts can't even legally go into combat with any less training than this, unless there is a situation of martial law. The longest training window is about eight months.

So, its unlikely that the April intake of conscripts would make an appearance in combat units in Ukraine until around the beginning of August, or even later.

Even then, it's important to note the actual number of new troops available won't be particularly massive. The conscript intake is spread out over about 15 weeks, because Russia's basic training infrastructure can't handle more than about 25-30,000 new bodies at any one time (as of 2019). The main bottleneck appears to be the fact that there aren't enough senior NCOs in the system - and most of these will be deployed in Ukraine at the moment.

If conscripts are going to be pushed into the front lines (which there is evidence of), they will likely be already trained troops from the autumn 2021 intake.

Of course, all of the above is based on peacetime standards. Give that Russia is in 'special military operation' times, reality could be different.

 

[GrauGeist]

Aside from an NCO shortage, Russia appears to be getting low on generals, too...

 

[ThomasP]

A couple of odd bits I ran across today:

G7 finance ministers said they have provided and pledged together with the international community, additional support to Ukraine exceeding $24 billion for 2022 and beyond, adding they were prepared to do more.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated China's opposition to unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction". In a video address to the annual Boao Forum for Asia gathering on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".

RF ground forces attempted to storm the Azovstal complex on Wednesday (21 April). On Thursday (22 April) Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces not to storm the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged port city of Mariupol - instead telling his troops to block it "so that not even a fly can get through". There are 1000+ UAF troops and another 1000+ civilians in the Azovstal complex.

 

[at6]

The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.

We are going rucking crazy?

 

[GrauGeist]

Of course China wants to eliminate the potential for sanctions - they see what's happening to Russia and learning for future reference for when they attack Taiwan.

 

[ThomasP]

That is part of what I find interesting about the Xi JinPing blurb. His comments clearly acknowledge the implications of the actions taken by much of the developed world in the current 'West' vs Russian Federation confrontation/situation - as opposed to his sitting back and pretending it has no relevance to China's potential actions.

 

[MiTasol]

Just got this in an email titled this seems to sum it up. In many ways I have to agree,

 

[ThomasP]

I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Russia has a rather ad hoc system based around individual military units rather than large centralised training facilities, and training times and standards vary significantly.

Where have we seen this song and dance before? Like Japanese aircraft carriers and their air wings? And what contribution did that make to their eventual victory?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated China's opposition to unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction". In a video address to the annual Boao Forum for Asia gathering on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".

All those high-falutin words and he couldn't be bothered to say one thing about naked aggression.

What a twatwaffle.

 

[SaparotRob]

I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.

Hey ThomasP, you have more information on this?

 

[Admiral Beez]

I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.

Time for some frogmen and limpet mines I'd say. The Ukrainian navy must have a scuba section, but I don't see it Ukrainian Navy - Wikipedia. They did train with the SEALS, US Navy SEALs are training with Ukrainian special operations forces

What's available for mines?

Mines of the United States of America - NavWeaps

Limpet mine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SaparotRob]

Remember that autonomous boat shipment that we don't seem to hear about anymore?

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Apparently Russian loses seem to be in line with Ukrainian/western estimates. Those 7000 missing are probably dead (and abandoned) as well.

 

[SaparotRob]

What were the Soviets admitting their losses were, up to this point?

 

[RogerdeLluria]

What were the Soviets admitting their losses were, up to this point?

Officially they reported about 1300 deads a long time ago, and no other official reports.

In late march a filtration from another Russian tabloid said nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers had died. But the publication was removed and attributed to hackers.

 

[SaparotRob]

Thanks!

 

[Crimea_River]

....., Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".....

Chairman eleven opposes unilateralism. Now that's rich.