"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Taliban ran an excellent offensive, waiting until the exhausted US and Allies fled the field and then marched into Kabul and overwhelmed the terrified defenders, who also fled. It's an offensive to mark the ages. 2021 Taliban offensive - Wikipedia The Ukrainians should be so lucky.

So what you're saying is that playing defense for twenty years set up the conditions for their victory. Got it.

Bear in mind that the main reason why they won was that we'd already decided we were tired of spending blood and money there. Their final offensive was simply the period at the end of a long, run-on sentence.

As for with what, I wrote that the Ukranians need to have an offensive in the works. They can launch it in May or June when much of the heaviest weaponry from the West is in place, but they'd better be preparing to retake lost territory. If Ukraine settles for a defensive strategy they'll lose a lot of territory in the peace.

Little of that donated weaponry is offensive, though. Towed howitzers, Javelins, Stingers, but no airplanes and precious few tanks. Not much transport for their infantry, either.

So again I ask: Go on the offensive with what? What capabilities do you think they can use to carry forward a successful offensive?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine has to time this right though with offensive action being targeted at weak points as they arise.

Agreed. Much of the Russian army has its back to Ukraine as they deal with Mariupol. If, and and a big if, the Ukrainians have the forces now is a good a chance to hit the Russians, since once Mariupol is defeated the Russians will turn around and concentrate their forces on the offensive. If the Ukrainians do not have the forces now for an offensive, they need to whittle down the Russians, as you suggest and prepare to hit them when the latter are weakest.

 

[Snautzer01]

So again I ask: Go on the offensive with what? What capabilities do you think they can use to carry forward a successful offensive?

On the mark i think. Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the an ukraine offensive.

 

[WARSPITER]

On the mark i think. Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the a ukraine offensive.

That is the best strategy for the long term.

 

[buffnut453]

That is the best strategy for the long term.

Entirely agree. If you're planning your defense correctly, you can select the ground where you want to fight. That was as true today as it was at Gettysburg. Offensives can be very expensive whereas an effective, well planned defence is less costly in terms of losses…and Ukraine needs to carefully husband it's military forces.

 

[JDCAVE]

Or the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic......

I don't think the Battle of the Atlantic should be categorized as "Defensive". The air campaign against the U-boats was an offensive strategy.

Jim

 

[Crimea_River]

I can see the next Russian offensive bypassing the major cities in the east and advancing all the way to the Dnieper. The besieged cities will fight, of course but it will be a matter of time before ammo runs out and no western resupply, short of air-drops, will be possible.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the a ukraine offensive.

NATO consists of fickle, pragmatic countries. Their united position will eventually falter, even now the German unions are protesting Berlin's plan to stop buying Russian oil by end of 2022. Pro-Russian Greeks are protesting on the streets that the sanctions and anti-Russian action are impacting tourism. Bulgarians with Russian flags protested a recent NATO visit. I have little faith that the Italians, French, Bulgarians, etc. have the long-term staying power to keep up their opposition to Russia. Once Putin takes the Donbass and the land bridge to Crimea he may very well declare a unilateral ceasefire and call for negotiations with Kyiv. The Ukrainians will have to attend the talks, and stand down their own troops while they take place. At that point, the weaker-minded/spined Euros will be calling for peace and pressuring Zelensky to come to terms. If this happens, Ukraine will never regain those territories.

So, a defensive war is good for NATO, but not necessarily for Ukraine. And the Ukrainians know it, which is why they're asking for offensive weapons, tanks, APCs and IFVs, mobile artillery including MRLS like the HIMARS, strike aircraft, mobile long range SAMs, etc. in addition to the more defensive man portable missiles and small arms. They know that the window for offensive action before any ceasefire and forced negotiations is closing.

 

[WARSPITER]

I don't think the Battle of the Atlantic should be categorized as "Defensive". The air campaign against the U-boats was an offensive strategy.

Jim

That came later after the defence stage where air cover was not complete. At that stage the U-boats were on the offensive.

 

[GrauGeist]

Ukraine forces stalled the initial Russian offensive with defense and counter-attack tactics.

They're doing a remarkable job with what they have and are using their home-turf knowledge to great advantage.

This has become a war of attrition and the Ukrainians are bleeding the Russians beyond sustainable levels.

In WWII, the Soviets did the same thing at Stalingrad. They forced the Germans to commit and expend unsustainable levels of men and material.

 

[SaparotRob]

Ukraine forces stalled the initial Russian offensive with defense and counter-attack tactics.

They're doing a remarkable job with what they have and are using their home-turf knowledge to great advantage.

This has become a war of attrition and the Ukrainians are bleeding the Russians beyond sustainable levels.

In WWII, the Soviets did the same thing at Stalingrad. They forced the Germans to commit and expend unsustainable levels of men and material.

And this time, the Soviets don't have lend lease. The other guy does.

 

[GrauGeist]

And this time, the Soviets don't have lend lease. The other guy does.

Fortunately for the Ukraine, the Russian leadership doesn't seem to have read any WWII history books.

Because everything the Russians are doing right now, is pretty much out of the Unternehmen Barbarossa play book.

 

[J_P_C]

I know everyone's having fun mocking Putin and the Russian performance in this war, but let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment (I went to a Jesuit school, it's what we do).

Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.

Russia has lots of things going for it. They've got air supremacy (although not full dominance), artillery supremacy and significant advantages over the Ukrainians in terms of heavy ground forces - both in terms of numbers, quality and overall mobility. Russia can bring substantially more firepower to any one point at any one time than their opponents can, and in war that matters

They've also got advantages in terms of strategic mobility. Russia basically has control of when and where it attacks. If the Russian Army does encounter strong opposition, it can re-position/reset its axes of advance, or concentrate forces on completely a different axis.

Most of Ukraine's manpower is relatively static/foot mobile and comprised of lightly armed reservists. These troops work well when defending fixed positions against other light forces and 'Thunder Run' style rapid attacks. I question their ability to survive and contribute meaningfully on a battlefield being prepared by artillery and against an opponent using proper combined arms tactics with heavy forces.

Russia and it's leaders - both political and military - aren't dumb (no matter how we might like to deride them). It's armed forces got a rude shock in the initial phase, because their perception of reality and the actual situation on the ground were very different.

I suspect though that they have now had time to adjust and figure some things out. Like logistics. And communications. And SEAD.

Worst case for me is the Russia's second phase operation fixes some of Ukraine's heavy regular army units in place the East of the country, and then manages to destroy them with overwhelming firepower. Then they use these openings in the front to break into open territory where they're opposed by light/reserve/less mobile forces. There's little to stop them completing a major encirclement, with forces linking up from the north and south.

Surviving Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw westward or are trapped in a pocket. Either way, very heavy losses ensue - including most of Ukraine's heavy equipment and regular army troops. Ukrainian general staff is forced to give up on a wide front in eastern Ukraine, pulling back to the northwest to defend a shorter line (maybe Dnipro-Kharkiv, or Kremenchuk-Poltava-Kharkiv if things really go bad).

Russia ends up controlling everything on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River up to Dnipro City itself and then a large chunk of the country immediately north of that all the way up to the Russian border. It then halts its advance at whatever new defensive line the Ukrainians manage to establish, settles into a defensive posture, declares a 'mission accomplished' with a parade through Red Square and calls for a general cease fire.

Ukrainians become disenchanted with their government after losing the war, blame Zelensky for getting them into something they could never win and vote him out a few years later. In his place is a Russian-friendly candidate who promises to restore good relations with Russia in exchange for some territorial adjustments. He signs a peace treaty, ceding control of certain territories to Russia on the promise of 'free and fair' referendums on whether they want to be part of Russia or not.

End result, Russia acquires ~20-25% of Ukranian territory, controls 80% of its access to the Black Sea and ends up with four or five cities with populations of more than 250,000.

Here endeth the fantasy. Which - in my own not so modest opinion - is not actually that fantastical.

(Of course, I'm ignoring the wider economic and geostrategic issues here. Just assume that Russia's economy is f*cked but it can still win the war using available reserves)

sorry to say so but you are wrong at many points as other peoples who are analysing this war just considering numbers

 

[JDCAVE]

The loss of he Moskova might signal the beginning of discontent in Russia.

With sunken warship, Russian disinformation faces a test. (Published 2022)

Families of missing crew members say the Russian authorities are giving them the runaround after a flagship sank last week in the Black Sea.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

The loss of he Moskova might signal the beginning of discontent in Russia.

With sunken warship, Russian disinformation faces a test. (Published 2022)

Families of missing crew members say the Russian authorities are giving them the runaround after a flagship sank last week in the Black Sea.

www.nytimes.com

Memories of the Kursk and Putin's neglect of families. The video of the sailor's mother being drugged and dragged out of the press conference was horrible.

The Kursk Catastrophe, A Lesson For Putin, Is Fading From Russia’s Attention 20 Years Later

In August 2000, the nuclear submarine Kursk sank during naval exercises on the Barents Sea, killing all 118 sailors in an incident that would prove a turning point for Russian society and for the political system that President Vladimir Putin has shaped in the two decades since.

www.rferl.org

 

[tomo pauk]

Lovely:



Also this:

 

[Admiral Beez]

Lovely:



Also this:

I sometimes think hitting BMPs is a waste of a ATGW, unless the vehicle is carrying troops. The Russians have thousands of BMPs. Better to save your powder and hit the tanks, mobile artillery and BMPs on the move that suggest they're full of troops.

 

[SaparotRob]

BMPs are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you'll get.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Russia claims to have 'liberated' Mariupol after weeks of bombardment

Russian officials claimed Thursday that the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine had come under their control. The besieged city has been reduced to rubble since the launch of the invasion on Feb. 24 as Russian forces attempted to capture the city for eight weeks.

www.yahoo.com

 

[SaparotRob]

Remember Mariupol!