"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

Good link GrauGeist.

Anyone interested in how the US sees the legal situation in the Ukraine should read it.

wlewisiii said:

Looks like Putler is planning on doubling down on his mistake:

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lol, it's a bit late in the day for a declaration of war, innit? Who is this guy trying to spoof?

To be fair, the US has not declared War since WWII.

Doesn't the highlighted part sound vaguely familiar? From LIFE, 16 Mar. 1942

GrauGeist said:

The international community by and large, has deemed Russia's invasion as an act of war.

Putler's intention to declare war is him trying to save face to the handful of people who still buy his bullshit.

As far as providing munitions and equipment to a belligerent during the time of a declared war, here is an excellent read on the existing laws and points regarding them, from West point Academy:

https://lieber.westpoint.edu/ukraine-neutrality-co-belligerency-use-of-force/

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Great post and link, GrauGeist. Unfortunately, Herr Putin has already showed his disdain for the rule of law. I'm less concerned about how we view rules of neutrality because we should (stress SHOULD) have all our legal ducks in a row BEFORE we take any action, including providing arms to belligerents. I'm much more concerned about how the Russian legal system will interpret this. As we've seen, the judicial system in Moscow basically does whatever T4MF tells them to do (e.g. banning free press, locking up peaceful protesters for 15 years etc.). It's not inconceivable (other "Princess Bride" quotes ARE available...allegedly) that Russian legal interpretation may seek to enable more flexibility in how Russia responds to external actors involved in the conflict. It's a very dangerous game...hence my concerns.

Well, wasn't it stated that the sinking of the Moskva (of course, after no one bought all their other excuses) an "act of war"?

buffnut453 said:

Great post and link, GrauGeist. Unfortunately, Herr Putin has already showed his disdain for the rule of law. I'm less concerned about how we view rules of neutrality because we should (stress SHOULD) have all our legal ducks in a row BEFORE we take any action, including providing arms to belligerents. I'm much more concerned about how the Russian legal system will interpret this. As we've seen, the judicial system in Moscow basically does whatever T4MF tells them to do (e.g. banning free press, locking up peaceful protesters for 15 years etc.). It's not inconceivable (other "Princess Bride" quotes ARE available...allegedly) that Russian legal interpretation may seek to enable more flexibility in how Russia responds to external actors involved in the conflict. It's a very dangerous game...hence my concerns.

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If I were Putin (well, that's a rabbit hole we don't want to visit) - ok, let me rephrase that:
The international legal system and the preponderance of evidence of Russia's actions take precedence over what Russia's legal system may interpret what's transpired.

At this point, there is nothing they can do or say that will hold water, no matter which way they spin it.

ThomasP said:

To be fair, the US has not declared War since WWII.

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The point is that when you punch someone in the face, complaining about being struck back looks pretty lame.

Isn't Duma Russian for Dumb a$$? As for the trollop threatening nuclear destruction, she's most likely upset because she can't find a Tampon anywhere in Moscow.

GrauGeist said:

The international community by and large, has deemed Russia's invasion as an act of war.

Putler's intention to declare war is him trying to save face to the handful of people who still buy his bullshit.

As far as providing munitions and equipment to a belligerent during the time of a declared war, here is an excellent read on the existing laws and points regarding them, from West point Academy:

https://lieber.westpoint.edu/ukraine-neutrality-co-belligerency-use-of-force/

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This is correct. Putin will want to make Ukraine the bad guy to Russians as he will say he was only there to 'save' Russian separatists
but the vicious Ukrainians decided to go onto a war footing.

This of course will leave him no choice but to declare war on Ukraine to comply with "International" legal requirements.

We know the opposite is true and many Russians probably do too.

Thumpalumpacus said:

The point is that when you punch someone in the face, complaining about being struck back looks pretty lame.

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That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.

That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
Got called into the Principle's office shortly after and given a three day detention.

Moral of the story: bullies are whiney bitches and I got a three day vacation for laying one out.

GrauGeist said:

That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.

That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
Got called into the Principle's office shortly after and given a three day detention.

Moral of the story: bullies are whiney bitches and I got a three day vacation for laying one out.

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One of my proudest moments as a dad was when our eldest was about 4 years old and still in preschool. There was another boy in his class that was an absolute shit. He would take things from people, punch, kick and otherwise hurt them, and generally make life hell for everyone. Naturally, he was bigger than all the other kids. One day, this little monster walks up to my son, puts his hand on my sons face and pushes him hard. No.1 son rocks backwards, sways back to square up to the bully, and then in his loudest voice yells "You shouldn't do that! Now say you're sorry!" The entire preschool, kids and adults (teachers and parents) stopped dead in their tracks to stare at the spectacle. The tiny tyrant suddenly felt the gaze of EVERYONE on him....and he slunk away. There was free ice cream for my eldest for many a week after that little fracas.

GrauGeist said:

That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.

That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
Got called into the Principle's office shortly after and given a three day detention.

Moral of the story: bullies are whiney bitches and I got a three day vacation for laying one out.

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I attended 8 schools in 12 years and was always the new kid, so yeah, bullying was a thing. Dad taught me to fight back and don't worry about clean. Even after getting my ass kicked, just the fact I fought back made me an uninviting target. Slava Ukrania.

In 5th grade a 6th grader was always bullying me. One after he pushed me down, I got back up and when he decided to do it again I jumped up, grabbed him behind the neck and proceeded bust his lip and bloody his nose with one punch. He ran to his teacher crying but got no satisfaction. His teacher and mine had seen what happened. His teacher laughingly ask mine to not let his kids beat up on 6th graders.

Hey buffnut453,

The information in the link GrauGeist posted - on how the US sees this kind of situation - is important due to some of the items that explain:

1. why we are/are not doing certain things that many people have said we should do (such as establish a no-fly zone) which might result in a 'Hot War' as opposed to a 'Cold War'.
2. the fact that Putin is using many of the same rationalizations that are given in the linked article.

As to #2 above - regardless of what the US citizen likes to think, many of the worlds nations do not agree with the US in some of these areas, and condemn the actions of the US in many of our recent conflicts. (Since I am a US citizen I will only refer to the actions of the US. Citizens of other countries can relate their own nations's behavior if they wish.)

Most of the world sees our invasion of Iraq as unjust, our war on the Taliban as unjust, and the destruction of the infrastructure of Iraq and Afghanistan as unjust, and hence as war crimes. And that that does not include all the civilian deaths and suffering that resulted from our actions. But the US has so much influence over the UN's war crimes commission that nothing will ever be done about our actions.

If anyone objects to Russian misbehavior in Ukraine, all Putin has to do is point at the actions of the US over the last 60 odd years. And much of the world will agree that there is no justice in a system that is applied to one nation and not another that acts in the same or similar manner.

The only area that anyone can claim that Russia is acting significantly differently (for the most part) than the US (over the last 60 years) is in the direct targeting of Ukrainian civilian population centers and hence civilians - as a policy.

Moderators, I do not want to start a political discussion sh*tstorm so I hope this is not too political, if so please take it down.

Oh it's stupider than just doubling down...

If memory serves me right, Hitler did something similar.

That didn't go well...

The British military believes Russian forces in Ukraine are likely suffering from "weakened morale."

The British Defense Ministry made that assessment in a tweet Saturday as part of a daily report it provides on Russia's war on Kyiv.

It says Russia "still faces considerable challenges" in fighting. The British military believes Russian forces have "been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units from the failed advances in northeast Ukraine."

"Shortcomings in Russian tactical coordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements," the military tweeted.

"Russia hopes to rectify issues that have previously constrained its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, shortening supply lines and simplifying command and control," it said.

The US view is supportive on the impact of the above

A senior U.S. defense official said Friday the Russian offensive is going much slower than planned in part because of the strength of the Ukrainian resistance.

"We also assess that because of this slow and uneven progress, again, without perfect knowledge of every aspect of the Russian plan, we do believe and assess that they are behind schedule in what they were trying to accomplish in the Donbas," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the U.S. military's assessment.

He said the U.S. believes the Russians are "at least several days behind where they wanted to be" as they try to encircle Ukrainian troops in the east.

As the troops try to move north out of Mariupol so they can advance on Ukrainian forces from the south, their progress has been "slow and uneven, and certainly not decisive in any, in any event," the official said.

Personal View

May 9th is a huge day for the Russian Military and a lot of people take the view that he was working towards an announcement of a significant victory on the 9th. Clearly things are not (and have never) gone to plan. His attack on the capital failed, the attempt to destroy or overcome the government failed, the new assault on the areas he wants to claim is running well behind schedule. Russian losses are mounting and nothing destroys the morale of an army more than , failing to achieve your goals, constantly changing objectives whilst taking very significant losses and having a leadership that doesn't care about the losses and you know is lying to you, your loved ones and the loved ones of the friends you have lost.

Russian seems to have lost north of 15,000 dead and its safe to assume that at least another 30-45,000 would have been wounded and he started with approx 175,000 troops. That is a loss ratio of approx 30% which is huge. Stalingrad would have had this scale of losses

Putin is in trouble deep and knows it

buffnut453 said:

Hmmm...methinks the western nations need to tread carefully with this one. If war is officially declared, then it may change some of the legal aspects of arms shipments that we're providing. It may also limit our freedom of manoeuvre in the Black Sea.

Then there's the whole issue of Putin's perception of countries that supply arms to his enemy when they're in a declared war. Russia defining the invasion as a "special operation" gave the west some wriggle-room and it also pushed Putin into a corner because he came to realise that the west was exploiting the very legal loophole that he'd created. I'm wondering if, by officially declaring war, Putin is seeking to take more active measures against arms shipments into Ukraine, for example before they even get into Ukraine itself. If that's what he's seeking to do, then escalation is inevitable.

I'm just shooting from the hip on this but there has to be some reason for Putin to suddenly declare war. I know we've all scoffed at the whole "special operation" thing...but there are some dark undertones to this development.

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From my understanding the Czar hasn't made use of the Russian army yet, besides Missile, some heavy artillery and Air-force usage. The "special operation" has been conducted vastly by Ukrainian/Russian irregulars - supported in a low numbers (20 -30,000) by members of the Russian army.
Not saying the Russian army will be much better - but certainly not worse then these irregular units. Furthermore declaring war might garner him sympathy in Russia and as you already indicated gives him more room towards international laws. Which as usual always come to light if they offer a benefit, even to the culprit. Additionally he can now legally raise manpower needed for a prolonged Ukraine war, with which he can run the Ukrainian economy, it's army's manpower and equipment into total attrition.
A declaration of war also allows him to make use of "internationally despised" (not forbidden) weapons, aside from ABC - just one of those dropped/fired onto the Azov Steel-plant and that pocket of resistance is literally a vacuum.
Also to my understanding (unless the Czar breaks his neck whilst falling down a staircase) he isn't going to give in towards NATO. - no matter the costs. Since this war has become then a
war of opposing political systems and their respective survival. So even a draw is acceptable to him in that regard.

The regular Russian Army had somewhere around 180,000 troops involved in the invasion. With the redeployment of forces to the East at least 1 fresh Russian Motorized Rifle Division (3 Mechanized Infantry regiments + 1 Tank regiment + 1(2?) Artillery regiment + 1 AA regiment + other battalion sized supporting units) with ~15,000 troops (possibly more) was brought in. While there are a significant number of Ukrainian citizens involved in the fighting on the Russian side, nearly all are in the Donetsk/Luhansk/Donbas regions.