SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
The opposite might be true, too. Has TaiwanAnd --
HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.
Chinese military experts are discussing the conflict in private chat groups, offering their takes on Western involvement in Ukraine and Russia's perceived failings, say two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.
[...]
"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.
They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.
Singapore-based scholar Collin Koh said such an approach would create its own problems for China's People's Liberation Army.
"If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties," said Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition.
[...]
Chinese strategists also worry about how Russia is contending with indirect Western military assistance, a factor China would also face in a Taiwan scenario, say two scholars and four diplomats.
Chinese experts are privately arguing about the need for Beijing to better compete in the so-called information war, which has complicated Russia's position on the battlefield, Zhao said.
Besides isolating Russia economically, Western diplomatic efforts - and reporting on atrocities in the war zone - have made it easier to provide aid for Ukraine and harder for Russia to find outside support.
[...]
"Taiwan would present a far greater logistical challenge than Ukraine, and to ready an invasion force on that scale undetected would be incredibly difficult," said Alexander Neill, who runs a strategic consultancy in Singapore.
[...]
Chinese analysts worry a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait - widely seen as a far greater military challenge - would face similar problems, as it requires smooth co-operation across its recently formed Southern, Eastern and Northern Theatre Commands.
Russia's forces in Ukraine have had command breakdowns and low morale. Analysts say it's unclear how Chinese troops - untested since they invaded northern Vietnam in 1979 - would perform in a modern conflict.
Analysis: Russia's Ukrainian quagmire providing tough lessons for China
From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.www.reuters.com
On the one hand, China has the opportunity to learn from Russian mistakes. On the other hand, amphibious assault is one of the toughest evolutions even in peacetime exercises, much less under fire. Much of it depends upon Taiwanese determination and the fighting qualities of the individual Chinese soldier.
the espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following this too closely.
