"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (61 Viewers)

[SaparotRob]

And --


HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.

Chinese military experts are discussing the conflict in private chat groups, offering their takes on Western involvement in Ukraine and Russia's perceived failings, say two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.

[...]

"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.


They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.

Singapore-based scholar Collin Koh said such an approach would create its own problems for China's People's Liberation Army.

"If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties," said Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition.

[...]

Chinese strategists also worry about how Russia is contending with indirect Western military assistance, a factor China would also face in a Taiwan scenario, say two scholars and four diplomats.

Chinese experts are privately arguing about the need for Beijing to better compete in the so-called information war, which has complicated Russia's position on the battlefield, Zhao said.

Besides isolating Russia economically, Western diplomatic efforts - and reporting on atrocities in the war zone - have made it easier to provide aid for Ukraine and harder for Russia to find outside support.

[...]

"Taiwan would present a far greater logistical challenge than Ukraine, and to ready an invasion force on that scale undetected would be incredibly difficult," said Alexander Neill, who runs a strategic consultancy in Singapore.

[...]

Chinese analysts worry a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait - widely seen as a far greater military challenge - would face similar problems, as it requires smooth co-operation across its recently formed Southern, Eastern and Northern Theatre Commands.

Russia's forces in Ukraine have had command breakdowns and low morale. Analysts say it's unclear how Chinese troops - untested since they invaded northern Vietnam in 1979 - would perform in a modern conflict.

Analysis: Russia's Ukrainian quagmire providing tough lessons for China

From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.

www.reuters.com

On the one hand, China has the opportunity to learn from Russian mistakes. On the other hand, amphibious assault is one of the toughest evolutions even in peacetime exercises, much less under fire. Much of it depends upon Taiwanese determination and the fighting qualities of the individual Chinese soldier.

The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan the espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following this too closely.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan the espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following in

I know that as of last year we had US GIs on the island helping to train Taiwanese. To what capability, and in what capacity, I'm not sure.

The US has been secretly maintaining a small contingent of military trainers in Taiwan for at least a year, according to a new report, the latest sign of the rising stakes in US-China rivalry.

About two dozen US special forces soldiers and an unspecified number of marines are now training Taiwanese forces, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The trainers were first sent to Taiwan by the Trump administration but their presence had not been reported until now.

The report came as President Tsai Ing-wen said on Friday that Taiwan will "do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life".

"Taiwan does not seek military confrontation," she told a security forum in Taipei. "It hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbours. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life."

Secret group of US military trainers has been in Taiwan for at least a year

Small contingent of US special forces and marines training local forces in latest sign of rising US-China tensions

www.theguardian.com

I'd be willing to bet after seeing how what was left of democracy in Hong Kong get snuffed out in the last 18 months that the Taiwanese will be motivated fighters.

According to the Taipei Times:


Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.

However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.

Poll says 72.5% of Taiwanese willing to fight against forced unification by China - Taipei Times

Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independen

www.taipeitimes.com

Considering Taiwan's rough terrain, I don't doubt that those Taiwanese willing to fight it out could give the Chinese a bloody nose.

 

[buffnut453]

Not sure if the four smart micro-munitions the Bayraktar carries (50 lbs apiece) would be able to overcome this ... I guess a lot would depend upon the damage-control practiced by the sub's crew.

Sounds like the Bayraktar is 100% over-equipped with missiles...at least if the Moskva experience is anything to go by.

Shall I get my coat?

 

[Jagdflieger]

Lesson one. I think Ministries of Defence, General Staff and troops across the West were shocked at just how sh#ttily equipped the supposed all powerful Russian army, air force and navy is. How such a massive misjudgment of capabilities slipped past IDK, maybe it was echoed by the lobbyists selling arms to the West.

You sure??? - I think those involved in every-days military issues have been aware about this since the 70's.
But it was never in the interest of military hardware producers to openly admit this. I guess they are facing an uncertain future now.

Okay now I will look for my dugout and hide.

 

[Jagdflieger]

The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan the espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following this too closely.

There used to be quite a frequent exchange with ASEAN countries - foremost Singapore. But upon China waving the $$ this has more or less all gone down to zero, since 2000

 

[buffnut453]

US DOD reporting more schedule problems for the Russian assaults in the east:

The Russian campaign to seize control of the Donbas region is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official has said.

Fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and caution after Russia's failure to capture Kyiv has led to "slow and uneven progress" in the region, the Pentagon believes.

The official said Russian troops are wary of getting ahead of their supply lines, adding: "We believe that essentially what they're doing is continuing to set conditions for a sustained and larger and longer offensive."

The Pentagon believes the Russians "are at least several days behind where they wanted to be," the official said.

Moscow has 92 battalion tactical groups in the east and south of Ukraine now, with more poised on the Russian side of the border, according to the US department of defence.

But those groups are not necessarily full-strength after significant setbacks in the first weeks of the invasion, the official said.

 

[Jagdflieger]

I know that as of last year we had US GIs on the island helping to train Taiwanese.To what capability, and in what capacity, I'm not sure.

The US has been secretly maintaining a small contingent of military trainers in Taiwan for at least a year, according to a new report, the latest sign of the rising stakes in US-China rivalry.

About two dozen US special forces soldiers and an unspecified number of marines are now training Taiwanese forces, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The trainers were first sent to Taiwan by the Trump administration but their presence had not been reported until now.

The report came as President Tsai Ing-wen said on Friday that Taiwan will "do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life".

"Taiwan does not seek military confrontation," she told a security forum in Taipei. "It hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbours. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life."

Secret group of US military trainers has been in Taiwan for at least a year

Small contingent of US special forces and marines training local forces in latest sign of rising US-China tensions

www.theguardian.com

I'd be willing to bet after seeing how what was left of democracy in Hong Kong gt snuffed out in the last 18 months that the Taiwanese will be motivated fighters.

According to the Taipei Times:


Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.

However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.

Poll says 72.5% of Taiwanese willing to fight against forced unification by China - Taipei Times

Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independen

www.taipeitimes.com

Considering Taiwan's rough terrain, I don't doubt that those Taiwanese willing to fight it out could give the Chinese a bloody nose.

Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.

Agreed, the Taiwanese want to be left alone, and the Chinese tend to prefer relatively-peaceful long-term designs for attaining foreign-policy objectives.

If the Chinese had plans and processes moving forward for invading Taiwan (not something in a file-cabinet, but actively preparing) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably added a decade to that timetable by dint of the overwhelming response shown by the world to naked aggression. This flexing of soft power is probably giving them second thoughts about any potential invasion.

 

[GTX]

Sobering read:

What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria

Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.

www.politico.com

 

[Jagdflieger]

Agreed, the Taiwanese want to be left alone, and the Chinese tend to prefer relatively-peaceful long-term designs for attaining foreign-policy objectives.

If the Chinese had plans and processes moving forward for invading Taiwan (not something in a file-cabinet, but actively preparing) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably added a decade to that timetable by dint of the overwhelming response shown by the world to naked aggression. This flexing of soft power is probably giving them second thoughts about any potential invasion.

Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's now
ever increasing financial burden into account, might even encourage them to say - now or never. But okay that is just an assumption of mine and not necessarily matching China's long-term play (30-50 years) in regards to Taiwan.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's now
ever increasing financial burden into account, might even encourage them to say - now or never. But okay that is just an assumption of mine and not necessarily matching China's long-term play (30-50 years) in regards to Taiwan.

It's certainly possible. Chinese designs are sometimes obvious, but are often inscrutable. And yeah, if NATO is overextended then there might be some temptation to do it now.

China's A2/AD approach to securing the southern seas is not yet fully developed, though, and Taiwan's military (from my understanding) is far better-equipped with missiles than Ukraine. Those two facts in conjunction with China's preference to avoid shooting wars probably militates against the hawks getting their way.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Sobering read:

What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria

Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.

www.politico.com

It's an interesting article, but I don't think Zelenskyy will allow Western ADHD and desire for "de-escalation" to take root. It also ignores the deep concern the EU has in seeing aggression on its doorstep against fellow Europeans.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

RFE, so it may be biased and salt should be applied as needed, but I think there are some good points here:

Former U.S., NATO Commander Says Putin's War In Ukraine Has Left Russia 'Vulnerable As A Nation'

The former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe has said Russia is "not in a good position" as the 2-month-old Ukraine war grinds on.

www.rferl.org

 

[GTX]

Ukraine latest: Russian troops worn down by assault on Kyiv taking 'colossal losses' in the east, Ukraine says

Ukraine says Russia's renewed push in the country's east has resulted in heavy casualties and the loss of some towns and villages but at much greater cost to the invading troops.

www.abc.net.au

 

[FLYBOYJ]

And...

F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’

Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Glider]

US DOD reporting more schedule problems for the Russian assaults in the east:

The Russian campaign to seize control of the Donbas region is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official has said.

Fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and caution after Russia's failure to capture Kyiv has led to "slow and uneven progress" in the region, the Pentagon believes.

The official said Russian troops are wary of getting ahead of their supply lines, adding: "We believe that essentially what they're doing is continuing to set conditions for a sustained and larger and longer offensive."

The Pentagon believes the Russians "are at least several days behind where they wanted to be," the official said.

Moscow has 92 battalion tactical groups in the east and south of Ukraine now, with more poised on the Russian side of the border, according to the US department of defence.

But those groups are not necessarily full-strength after significant setbacks in the first weeks of the invasion, the official said.

The following is from the UK MOD which sees to support the above (albeit in less detail)

Britain said fighting had been particularly heavy around the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, the main part of the Donbas that Russia is still trying to capture, with an attempted advance south from Russian-held Izium towards Sloviansk.

'Due to strong Ukrainian resistance, Russian territorial gains have been limited and achieved at significant cost to Russian forces,' the British defence ministry said in an update.

 

[swampyankee]

Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.

Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.

Quite a few polities have significant political movements to move away from the concept of democracy. Possibly Putin's failure in Ukraine will spill some of the wind from their soot-blackened sails.

 

[Glider]

And...

F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’

Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.

www.yahoo.com

I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.

I think he was saying that were Ukraine to become an EU member Putin would be verklempt having EU right on his doorstep. Poor deployment of commas.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't

An F-16 pilot is more used to more-complex software. I can't say anything about -29 pilots being able to transition or not, but once you're used to systems architecture, that knowledge is to an extent transferable, whereas if you've never used a system's architecture your learning curve will definitely be steeper.