"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

Jagdflieger said:

Whatever you want to believe - fine with me

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Your underestimate of Russian troop strengths is surprising. What news sources are reporting this? Can you link to them?

ETA: Never mind, I see that you've already refused to support your assertion, in which case I refer you to Hitchens's Razor.

Thumpalumpacus said:

Your underestimate of Russian troop strengths is surprising. What news sources are reporting this? Can you link to them?

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One needs to separate two different occurrences.
1. the initial attack onto the Ukraine - supported by around 130,000 Russian troops of which around 60,000 actually went into Ukrainian territory (mostly Kiev area 35-40,000) and a further 15 -20,000 in the Donbass/Mariupol area.
2. The stage 2 from March onward is conducted in vast majority by the DNR and the LNR troops (counting up to 250,000) troops, equipped initially with approx. 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's. and supported by around 25-35,000 Russian troops.
In the meantime (since mid April) Russia has assembled approx. 100,000 troops - where likely 60% are focused on coming action towards Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

The question you might answer for yourself is where are, and what are the 150-200,000 DNR and LNR troops doing? and the other remaining 50-100,000?
As I said and please don't get me wrong - if you prefer or have reasons to believe that 250,000 Russian troops are presently engaging the Ukrainian forces and 250,000 DNR/INR troops
are patrolling the streets in the occupied territory - fine with me.

BTW, how strong do you judge the Ukrainian forces to be, that momentarily are holding the 1000km+ stretching front lines? from Kharkiv down to Vuhledar and over to Mykolaiv?

Jagdflieger said:

Common knowledge within NATO, or feel free to check the internet in timeline since 2014 for hopefully reliable information;
e.g. article from 2015!! "The joint army of the DNR and the LNR will be 100,000 men strong,"

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Bit of a poor show refering to somewhere on the internet an article (!) . It gives no weight at all to your statement i think as does refering to an article from 2015 to the situation today.

Snautzer01 said:

Bit of a poor show refering to somewhere on the internet an article (!) . It gives no weight at all to your statement i think as does refering to an article from 2015 to the situation today.

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Why don't you simply check for yourself as to the actual strength of the DNR and LNR in 2021?
Taking into account Putins plans for the Ukraine since 2014 and the fact that an article (amongst numerous articles and sources) already indicates a 100,000 men compassing army
what do you think this Army to be or actually was in 2022? and it's equipment?

e.g. : By 6 March, the Luhansk separatists (LNR) claimed to have "liberated" more than 100 towns and villages, The "DNR" claimed 67 occupied towns and villages, 36 on March 6 and another 31 March 7.
While there was little information available to corroborate whether these early advances were made by separatist armed formations with, or without any significant Russian reinforcements, their limited scale and pace clearly point to the latter. A photo (unverified) apparently showing "LNR" documents of soldiers captured by Ukrainian troops on 7th of March in the Luhansk region might also support this.
e.g. : originating from a confidential report on February 11th 2022 regarding Draft-notices for the LDNR: - That's what they're doing right now — they're delivering the draft notices to apartments and homes. I don't know the exact number of the notices, but I think we are talking about 50,000-60,000 people.

Jagdflieger said:

One needs to separate two different occurrences.
1. the initial attack onto the Ukraine - supported by around 130,000 Russian troops of which around 60,000 actually went into Ukrainian territory (mostly Kiev area 35-40,000) and a further 15 -20,000 in the Donbass/Mariupol area.
2. The stage 2 from March onward is conducted in vast majority by the DNR and the LNR troops (counting up to 250,000) troops, equipped initially with approx. 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's. and supported by around 25-35,000 Russian troops.
In the meantime (since mid April) Russia has assembled approx. 100,000 troops - where likely 60% are focused on coming action towards Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

The question you might answer for yourself is where are, and what are the 150-200,000 DNR and LNR troops doing? and the other remaining 50-100,000?
As I said and please don't get me wrong - if you prefer or have reasons to believe that 250,000 Russian troops are presently engaging the Ukrainian forces and 250,000 DNR/INR troops
are patrolling the streets in the occupied territory - fine with me.

BTW, how strong do you judge the Ukrainian forces to be, that momentarily are holding the 1000km+ stretching front lines? from Kharkiv down to Vuhledar and over to Mykolaiv?

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Jad
These are just more bland statements. What everyone is after is some explanation as to how you arrived at these numbers.

Nowhere can I find anything that says that DNR or LNR troops are being involved in any numbers.

Jagdflieger said:

Why don't you simply check for yourself as to the actual strength of the DNR and LNR in 2021?
Taking into account Putins plans for the Ukraine since 2014 and the fact that an article (amongst numerous articles and sources) already indicates a 100,000 men compassing army
what do you think this Army to be or actually was in 2022? and it's equipment?

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Normally when someone makes a claim in a discussion (you in this case), the onus is on them to support the claim with facts and provide sources.

Deflecting as you are only reduces the persons credibility.

Jagdflieger said:

As I said and please don't get me wrong - if you prefer or have reasons to believe that 250,000 Russian troops are presently engaging the Ukrainian forces and 250,000 DNR/INR troops
are patrolling the streets in the occupied territory - fine with me.

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Neither I nor anyone else here has made this claim, which renders this a strawman and unworthy of further consideration.

Jagdflieger said:

BTW, how strong do you judge the Ukrainian forces to be, that momentarily are holding the 1000km+ stretching front lines? from Kharkiv down to Vuhledar and over to Mykolaiv?

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I don't know. I know they have the advantage of interior lines and resupply from the west.

Thumpalumpacus said:

I don't know. I know they have the advantage of interior lines and resupply from the west.

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Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.

Jagdflieger said:

Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.

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Re 'who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side'

This is my starter for ten as we say in the UK.


Now where is your supporting evidence?

Jagdflieger said:

Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.

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Are you stationed n the Ukraine (or Russia, for that matter) and providing accurate eyes-on information, or merely tossing out numbers you *think* that's correct?

Jagdflieger said:

Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.

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The media I've read over the last few months has mentioned Russian troop strengths but not Ukrainian troop strengths. I have this annoying habit of sticking to facts that I can support unless I'm opining -- and in that case I clearly label it.

You should give it a try one day. It's a good system that works for me.

KYIV, April 30 (Reuters) - Russian forces pounded Ukraine's eastern Donbas region on Saturday but failed to capture three target areas, Ukraine's military said, while Moscow said Western sanctions on Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine were impeding peace negotiations.

The Russians were trying to capture the areas of Lyman in Donetsk and Sievierodonetsk and Popasna in Luhansk, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in a daily update. "Not succeeding - the fighting continues," it said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in remarks published early on Saturday, said lifting Western sanctions on Russia was part of the peace talks, which he said were difficult but continued daily by video link. read more

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has insisted since the Russian invasion began on Feb. 24 that sanctions needed to be strengthened and could not be part of negotiations. He said on Friday there was a high risk the talks would end because of what he called Russia's "playbook on murdering people".

Ukraine accuses Russian troops of atrocities in areas near the capital, Kyiv, that they previously occupied. Moscow denies the claims.

Lavrov said that if the United States and other NATO countries were truly interested in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, they should stop sending weapons to Kyiv. read more



"Give us what we want and we'll continue to negotiate"? My counteroffer would be to supply the sand I'll suggest he hammer up his ass.

My suggestion to Lavrov, would be to stop attacking the Ukraine, withdraw all military forces to the internationally recognized borders and the fighting would stop.

The whining about "we can't have peace if you keep helping our victim defend themselves" is laughable at best.

Houses in the town of Irpin, north of Kyiv:

Thumpalumpacus said:

The media I've read over the last few months has mentioned Russian troop strengths but not Ukrainian troop strengths. I have this annoying habit of sticking to facts that I can support unless I'm opining -- and in that case I clearly label it.

You should give it a try one day. It's a good system that works for me.

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Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
information that is withheld by NATO. "great"

So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree
1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.
2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.
3. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's
You and others got no alternative information to this and are asking me to bring in proof - if live would only be so easy.
But please feel free to state as to how many LNDR units are presently engaged in combat (or since end of March)
4. I am stating that presently less then 50,000 Russian troops are engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces. (with presently 100,000 being assembled to go into action)
You and others seem to believe that 200,000 Russian troops are fighting already against the Ukrainian forces since February and at present - please forward proof
You and others seem to believe that the LNDR forces are basically just rag-tags with small arms patrolling the streets in occupied territory - please forward proof

Below is the official chart issued by the Ukrainian MoD as of today in regards to Russian total losses. Off course openly spread by NATO and the media.

So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men? and taking no separate stats of the LNDR forces and their equipment into account? As I said I let people believe whatever they want to believe - but I don't appreciate comments of mine to be downgraded to nonsense, just because they don't fit into someones mindset that thrives entirely on a one-sided source of information. - that's all.

A simple: sorry I don't agree with your assessment - should suffice, no?

Jagdflieger said:

Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
information that is withheld by NATO. "great"

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Right. We all are reliant on media sources. You are no different than anyone in that regard. Yet when asked to provide your sources you refuse to, and instead turn to attacking others for... relying on the media for information.

Of course I cannot know what I don't know. Peddling tautologies is not a good way to strengthen your point.

Jagdflieger said:

So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree
1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.
2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.
3. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's
You and others got no alternative information to this and are asking me to bring in proof - if live would only be so easy.
But please feel free to state as to how many LNDR units are presently engaged in combat (or since end of March)
4. I am stating that presently less then 50,000 Russian troops are engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces. (with presently 100,000 being assembled to go into action)
You and others seem to believe that 200,000 Russian troops are fighting already against the Ukrainian forces since February and at present - please forward proof
You and others seem to believe that the LNDR forces are basically just rag-tags with small arms patrolling the streets in occupied territory - please forward proof

Below is the official chart issued by the Ukrainian MoD as of today in regards to Russian total losses. Off course openly spread by NATO and the media.

So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men? and taking no separate stats of the LNDR forces and their equipment into account? As I said I let people believe whatever they want to believe - but I don't appreciate comments of mine to be downgraded to nonsense, just because they don't fit into someones mindset that thrives entirely on a one-sided source of information. - that's all.

A simple: sorry I don't agree with your assessment - should suffice, no?

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Link to your source so that I may read this for myself.

Until that happens I'm moving onto to more remunerative discussion.

Jagdflieger said:

Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
information that is withheld by NATO. "great"

So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree

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This should be good

Jagdflieger said:

1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.

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I have heard of them operating in areas that have already been cleared or surrounded by Russian forces, but not in the front line

Jagdflieger said:

2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.

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Which is not the same as operating in the front line

Jagdflieger said:

3. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's

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Stating yes, you do that a lot, but without any supporting evidence

Jagdflieger said:

4. I am stating that presently less then 50,000 Russian troops are engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces. (with presently 100,000 being assembled to go into action)
You and others seem to believe that 200,000 Russian troops are fighting already against the Ukrainian forces since February and at present - please forward proof
You and others seem to believe that the LNDR forces are basically just rag-tags with small arms patrolling the streets in occupied territory - please forward proof

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I do believe that between 150,000 and 200,000 Russian soldiers are operating in the Ukraine
My proof (which you seem to be studiously ignoring) is the order of battle which I post again. Any comments you have on this would be appreciated.

Jagdflieger said:

Below is the official chart issued by the Ukrainian MoD as of today in regards to Russian total losses. Off course openly spread by NATO and the media.

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Wrong again. The last number I saw from the British MOD said that approx 15,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, at the time the Ukraine sources were saying approx 21,000. I am going with the UK and Nato numbers, not the Ukraine numbers

Jagdflieger said:

So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men? and taking no separate stats of the LNDR forces and their equipment into account? As I said I let people believe whatever they want to believe - but I don't appreciate comments of mine to be downgraded to nonsense, just because they don't fit into someones mindset that thrives entirely on a one-sided source of information. - that's all.

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You presumably cannot disagree with the statement that Russia and its allies had lost these amounts of men and material.

Jagdflieger said:

A simple: sorry I don't agree with your assessment - should suffice, no?

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No because you produce nothing to support your statements and ignore what others produce

Jagdflieger said:

. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's
You and others got no alternative information to this and are asking me to bring in proof - if live would only be so easy.
But please feel free to state as to how many LNDR units are presently engaged in combat (or since end of March)

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I have to ask, where are you getting these numbers from, regarding Luhansk and Donesk manpower numbers.
The estimated civilian population of these to provinces are about 3 million. How are they able to muster a quarter million troops out of such a population?

And accordung to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (oh look, an official source!), Russia committed 2,700 tanks to the "special operation" - so how is it that these two provincial "armies" have more than half the number of tanks than Russia does?

Agent 00Jagdflieger, in her Majesty's service.

I know this is Wikipedia but it puts the strength of separatist forces in Donbas at about 44,000 as of last year.


It's also interesting that right-wing nationalism (the Russian variant, not the Nazi variant) seems to play a key role within the separatist units. That's not a surprise but it provides yet more evidence of the nonsense that is Moscow's justification for this "special operation-soon-to-be-war."