"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (11 Viewers)

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New weaponry is exactly stuff like the 777s and other guns coming in from other countries. Couple of weeks to pull crews off for cross-training, and I bet setting up logistics for the new ammo and such requires a little time too. I don't think t's as simple as "here's a gun, now shoot it".

Granted that small arms are easily transferable, but even APCs require a supply chain that Ukraine may not have in place.

It stands to reason that integrating this new (to them) stuff is not going to get a Star Trek matter-transporter solution. And that means that they are right now fighting for time, to get sufficient numbers to the front lines.
New Zealand is sending troops up there to train Ukrainians on the artillery. Knowing our Government, they won't be going in-country, but it is likely going to be done somewhere like Poland. It takes away another target for the Russians.
 
I don't think Ukraine has any interest in attacking Russia proper - their sole aim is to get rid of the invaders and reclaim their land.

I can see them perhaps hitting a supply depot or a command center near the border, but it's highly unlikely they'll target anything further inland.

I suspect the diplomats are just making legal noise that'll be overheard by Putler, sort of a disclaimer of sorts.

I hope you're right that this is just legal noise. I hope these weapons are put to use most effectively no matter what side of the border the rounds land on, and I don't think us Americans ought to be telling the Ukrainians how to use these weapons. That only feeds Putin's narrative of proxy-war even further.

If we're to support them, give them what we can and will, but we should not be saying how these weapons should be deployed, imo.
 
Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.

Calling for talks and getting them are two very different things. And who would blame Ukraine for refusing?
 
I agree, and the less conversation about what is given, the better.

Last month, the Czechs gave the Ukranians five tanks and nothing was said until after the fact. This is how it should be - keep everything on the downlow until after the dust settles.

If a nation wants to provide military hardware, fine, but don't make it a media event, because now the enemy knows...
 
New Zealand is sending troops up there to train Ukrainians on the artillery. Knowing our Government, they won't be going in-country, but it is likely going to be done somewhere like Poland. It takes away another target for the Russians.

Less crews shooting at the Russians in that timeframe, too, is my point. It's a necessary evil, and then it boils down to was our aid quick enough to confront this offensive? It is to me a cause for concern. Forrest's "fustest with the mostest" should be remembered here as we ponder this, I think.
 
You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?
No, not that extreme;
he envisions that the former Soviet republics come under direct Kremlin control, so that would focus him in regards to the West, onto the Baltic Republics, Ukraine, Moldavia and Belarus. The former Warsaw pact states need to be neutral (so that he can tell them what to do and how) Taking his age into account, he is a very visionary entrepreneur trying to set the path for the company goals and motto for the next CEO.
Maybe the new CEO? - Kadyrov has been referred to as "the son Putin never had" - he looks like a good humor guy and favors an open language - especially towards Poland
But first Putin needs to see if he can survive politically the "special military operation";)
 

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Calling for talks and getting them are two very different things. And who would blame Ukraine for refusing?
The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.
 
The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.
You're presuming Vladimir Vladimirovich is a reasonable actor. He hasn't been yet; why would he start now?
 
The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.

Again, calling for peace doesn't mean jack if the guy whose land you're stealing refuses talks.
 

KYIV/POPASNA, Ukraine, May 27 (Reuters) - Russian forces in eastern Ukraine captured the centre of the railway hub town of Lyman and encircled most of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian officials acknowledged on Friday, as Kyiv's forces fell back in the face of Moscow's biggest advance for weeks.

Ukraine insisted its forces were still holding firm at new defensive lines in the eastern Donbas region, despite the apparent Russian advances on two of the major fronts there, battles that showed how momentum has shifted in recent days.


Moscow's separatist proxies said they were fully in control of Lyman, a railway hub that Russia has been attacking from the north in one of the main axes of its advance.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Russia had captured most of the town. But the defence ministry said forces were still holding out in northeastern and southwestern districts, blocking the Russians from launching an advance towards Sloviansk, a major city a half-hour drive further southwest.


Further east, Russian forces had encircled two-thirds of the city of Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said. The city is the easternmost major population centre still held by Ukraine in the Donbas, and Russia has been trying to trap Ukraine's main fighting force inside it and its twin city Lysychansk across the Siverskiy Donets river. Ninety percent of buildings in Sievierodonetsk were destroyed, Gaidai said.


Oleskiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in an interview overnight that Lyman had fallen, and that the well-organised Russian attack there showed that Moscow's military was improving its tactics and operations.


 
The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.
I think that doesn't matter really.
Either Putin manages to take control of the entire Ukraine in whatever way, or if a ceasefire is arranged along whatever specific border and Putin still being in power in a couple of years - he will again attack Ukraine, latest upon them applying to become a NATO member. So Ukraine won't be the attacker anyway.
 
Interesting piece on the need for the Russian government to prop up the economy in order to overcome sanctions and keep funding the "special military operation" (Source: BBC). I expect inflation to go up like a helium balloon:

Russia requires substantial financial resources in order to continue supporting both its economy and its "special operation" in Ukraine, the country's finance minister says.

"Money for a special operation" means "huge resources" are needed, Anton Siluanov says at a university event.

Moscow officials insist on referring to the invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation."

He adds the Russian government will be spending 8 trillion roubles (£95.8bn) in the form of an economic stimulus package this year.

"Huge funds. We need these resources to support the economy, support our citizens."

The Russian economy has fared poorly in the last few months after being hammered by Western sanctions, with some forecasts projecting its GDP to shrink by between 8.5% and 15% this year.
 
Again, calling for peace doesn't mean jack if the guy whose land you're stealing refuses talks.
It does if the guy refusing to talk is being bankrolled and armed by a fickle world, members of which may seize at the first opportunity to dial back aid. The West, with its short attention span won't keep on arming and financing Ukraine indefinitely. That's especially true if it increasingly appears that the West is backing a losing horse, the Donbas is fully taken and then annexed into Russia, making it a fait accompli, with the West treating it like Crimea in 2014.
 
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It does if the guy refusing to talk is being bankrolled and armed by a fickle world, members of which may seize at the first opportunity to dial back aid. The West, with its short attention span won't keep on arming and financing Ukraine indefinitely. That's especially true if it increasingly appears that the West is backing a losing horse, the Donbas is fully taken and then annexed into Russia, making it a fait accompli, with the West treating it like Crimea in 2014.

While that's a possibility, I think the news of all the atrocities being committed, as well as Ukraine's predominance in the information war, mitigate this risk substantially.

And even if Ukraine to come to the table and cedes land for peace, that doesn't mean that an insurgency won't happen, which still means the bear has got his nose in the trap. With the sanctions biting deeper every day, that makes the prospect of an occupation look pretty bad for the Russians.
 
Interesting piece on the need for the Russian government to prop up the economy in order to overcome sanctions and keep funding the "special military operation" (Source: BBC). I expect inflation to go up like a helium balloon:

Russia requires substantial financial resources in order to continue supporting both its economy and its "special operation" in Ukraine, the country's finance minister says.

"Money for a special operation" means "huge resources" are needed, Anton Siluanov says at a university event.

Moscow officials insist on referring to the invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation."

He adds the Russian government will be spending 8 trillion roubles (£95.8bn) in the form of an economic stimulus package this year.

"Huge funds. We need these resources to support the economy, support our citizens."

The Russian economy has fared poorly in the last few months after being hammered by Western sanctions, with some forecasts projecting its GDP to shrink by between 8.5% and 15% this year.
For what was a 1.5 trillion dollar economy (before the invasion of Ukraine), that is a big chunk of GDP.

It will be interesting to see how much sanctions affect Russian GDP over the next 12 months. If it does shrink by around ten percent that is
150 billion dollars plus the cost of economic stimulus plus the further drop when oil and gas sales drop.
 
Minister of Defence Reznikov announced that Harpoon missiles will be supplied by three countries: Denmark, Netherlands, United Kingdom.
 

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